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Old 02-14-2007, 04:32 PM   #1
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The Two America's Economic Myths

Get ready to hear plenty of this stuff. John Edwards is a champion of it and all will follow!


Myth One:

Middle Class is failing.

Indicator: Stagnent Income

Census Bureau 2005 Median Household Income $46,000.

The only problem is how you measure the median. Today one third of American Households are young people earning entry level pay or retired people with no paycheck at all.

The Middle Class are people in their prime working years. People aged 25-59 is $61,000. For Couples it is $72,000. For prime age two couple earners $81,000 almost twice the median. All income levels except the very poor have risen slowly, not declined the middle going up 22%. The percentage of households earning 100,000 or more from 1979 to 2005 grew 12.7 % while those earning 30,000 to 57,000 shrank 13.3%. The middle class is shrinking because more people across the board are better off. The median scale gets tipped.
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Old 02-14-2007, 04:42 PM   #2
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Myth Two:

Americans are drowing in Debt:


Debt is up, but most of it is in home mortgages. Rational people consider that an investment. Look at home sales!

Type of debt as a % of total debt:

Mortgages:

1989 71.3%

2005 79.3%

Credit Cards:

1989 5.2%

2005 5.5%

Education:

1989 3.1%

2005 3.5%


And Assets have risen faster than debt for middle income families and pre-retirement households. 54% of American household had 0% credit card debt in 2004. The median household credit card debt was $2,100. That wont wipe out the middle class!

Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances.
 
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Old 02-14-2007, 04:52 PM   #3
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Myth Three:

Trade is a job killer.

While unemployment has fluctuated between 4% to 10% since 1947 imports as a share of GDP has gone from 3% to 16%!

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Trade has shifted jobs, not killed them! And it has not drowned the middle class into low income poverty either. As I noted above $100,000 level incomes are UP! At the worst you might need more education to shift some jobs. Trade debt is up, but we adjust to it quite well. Compare the results to protective economies and their median income, unemployment, tax rates, ect....
 
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Old 02-14-2007, 05:00 PM   #4
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Myth Four:

Corporate Profit is at the expense of jobs and worker income.

Since WWII Corporate profits have gone through highs and lows. Between 7% and 14% of National Income. They are now at just above 12%. Compensation and wages as a % of National Income have been very steady although the latter has gone down and the former gone up.

Wages (1940-2005) 55% to 52%
Compensation (1940-2005) 57% to 65%

Most of the rich get rich as a measure of the economy doing well, not by stealing your wages and getting rid of your jobs.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
 
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Old 02-14-2007, 07:20 PM   #5
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I like.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 11:35 AM   #6
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Wow, good info
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:17 PM   #7
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Propaganda

 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:19 PM   #8
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wow..its getting deep in here. Looks like we pick and choose selective numbers to justify our position and not include numbers which would be contrary to our agenda.

The downplay on percentages is nice too. What kind of impact does 5.2% credit card debt to 5.5% in 2005 really mean? I see figures that say the average person has $9,000 in credit card debt and the lowest personal savings rate since the depression.

Job trade has killed our manufacturing base. This means that skilled labor, high school graduates, are not making as much money as they were. People used to be able and go make 30-40-50k welding or some other manufacturing trade. Not anymore, at least not like before. Not only that but we now depend on others, usually our economic or military enemies such as china, to manufacture a large portion of very important things such as steel. You want to talk about national security? How about the next world war and we can't build new tanks because china makes all of our steel. When good paying jobs are sent overseas in the interests of saving overhead, it keeps the wages of other jobs down because they do not have to compete with the other industries for employees.

Just a quick personal story on how exporting skilled labor has fucked my american family...

My dad made $12 an hour in 1979 as a welder making liquid bulk tank trailers out of stainless steel. Some were for the military, most were for gasoline. Your boy Ron Reagan gets elected and does his union crushing and he gets laid off two are three times and eventually cut. They make these trucks in mexico and other places today. Now (today) he makes $14 an hour inspecting trucks with bucket lifts on them. The cable tv, phone, and power guys life depends on him knowing the hydraulics back and forth on these $120,000+ trucks. You can't be a retard in his position or people die. Since there are no other well paying skilled labor positions, they only have to pay him $14 an hour because there is no competition. There are countless numbers of 50 year old skilled labor people out there because over the last 20 years their jobs have been eliminated. They all want jobs. They have to much pride not to have a job. So they take $14 an hour.

Corporate profits dont necessarily come at the expense of jobs and salaries. The situation is more ethical and moral. Do they rape people with low wages simply because they can while they bring in millions? I feel they have a moral and ethical responsibility to take care of the hand that feeds them, aka employees. Not all business does this, and i'd say most business does not do this.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:31 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
Just a quick personal story on how exporting skilled labor has fucked my american family...

My dad made $12 an hour in 1979 as a welder making liquid bulk tank trailers out of stainless steel. Some were for the military, most were for gasoline. Your boy Ron Reagan gets elected and does his union crushing and he gets laid off two are three times and eventually cut. They make these trucks in mexico and other places today. Now (today) he makes $14 an hour inspecting trucks with bucket lifts on them. The cable tv, phone, and power guys life depends on him knowing the hydraulics back and forth on these $120,000+ trucks. You can't be a retard in his position or people die. Since there are no other well paying skilled labor positions, they only have to pay him $14 an hour because there is no competition. There are countless numbers of 50 year old skilled labor people out there because over the last 20 years their jobs have been eliminated. They all want jobs. They have to much pride not to have a job. So they take $14 an hour.
Talk about getting deep in here. You make a bunch of assumptions and toss in some propaganda to make it seem pretty bad, but in the end this story really doesn't mean too much when you consider everything....

1. if his job didn't move who is to say your dad woudn't be welding truck today for $15/hr? Is that environment better for a 50 year old guy than inspecting trucks?

2. if that company didn't move that job how do you know other companies wouldn't undercut his and put them entirely out of business?

3. in fear of #2, did your dad acquire any other useful skills? Having just one thing you're good at leaves you in at the mercy of someone else deciding your future. If all he can do is weld then he fucked himself, the company didn't fuck him.

4. how far away did your dad consider moving when his job left? I'm just curious, because I know he wouldn't be complaining if he didn't at least check to see what other welding jobs in neighboring states are paying... so he did look to relocate, right?

5. and since we're talking about it getting deep, here's my favorite, "cable tv, phone, and power guys life depends on him knowing the hydraulics..... You can't be a retard in his position or people die"....... I have no idea what this has to do with the story.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:35 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
wow..its getting deep in here. Looks like we pick and choose selective numbers to justify our position and not include numbers which would be contrary to our agenda.

The downplay on percentages is nice too. What kind of impact does 5.2% credit card debt to 5.5% in 2005 really mean? I see figures that say the average person has $9,000 in credit card debt and the lowest personal savings rate since the depression.

Job trade has killed our manufacturing base. This means that skilled labor, high school graduates, are not making as much money as they were. People used to be able and go make 30-40-50k welding or some other manufacturing trade. Not anymore, at least not like before. Not only that but we now depend on others, usually our economic or military enemies such as china, to manufacture a large portion of very important things such as steel. You want to talk about national security? How about the next world war and we can't build new tanks because china makes all of our steel. When good paying jobs are sent overseas in the interests of saving overhead, it keeps the wages of other jobs down because they do not have to compete with the other industries for employees.

Just a quick personal story on how exporting skilled labor has fucked my american family...

My dad made $12 an hour in 1979 as a welder making liquid bulk tank trailers out of stainless steel. Some were for the military, most were for gasoline. Your boy Ron Reagan gets elected and does his union crushing and he gets laid off two are three times and eventually cut. They make these trucks in mexico and other places today. Now (today) he makes $14 an hour inspecting trucks with bucket lifts on them. The cable tv, phone, and power guys life depends on him knowing the hydraulics back and forth on these $120,000+ trucks. You can't be a retard in his position or people die. Since there are no other well paying skilled labor positions, they only have to pay him $14 an hour because there is no competition. There are countless numbers of 50 year old skilled labor people out there because over the last 20 years their jobs have been eliminated. They all want jobs. They have to much pride not to have a job. So they take $14 an hour.

Corporate profits dont necessarily come at the expense of jobs and salaries. The situation is more ethical and moral. Do they rape people with low wages simply because they can while they bring in millions? I feel they have a moral and ethical responsibility to take care of the hand that feeds them, aka employees. Not all business does this, and i'd say most business does not do this.
You talk about ignoring and/or manipulating numbers and right out of the box you talk about "worst savings" since the depression while ignoring the savings vehicles that are EXCLUDED from those statistics.

Welding pays 40k/yr around here right out of welding training. And it is very much in demand here, its estimated that it will pay closer to 46k for the 2007 class from Tulsa Welding school.

China imports much of its steel each year especially the higher quality US and EU steel.

One of the biggest problems with higher paying jobs in this country is we DO NOT have enough people to fill the positions. As a result many high skilled mfg jobs are being left unfilled. Many white collar jobs are also going unfilled which is why we're seeing such low unemployment and increases in real wages.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:38 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
Corporate profits dont necessarily come at the expense of jobs and salaries. The situation is more ethical and moral. Do they rape people with low wages simply because they can while they bring in millions? I feel they have a moral and ethical responsibility to take care of the hand that feeds them, aka employees. Not all business does this, and i'd say most business does not do this.
Nobody is getting raped, in this country you're free to get another job or acquire new skills. THere are a host of labor laws to keep people from getting raped with low wages. If you sweep floors you probably shouldn't get paid what you or I make being in technology industries.

Most businesses do not take care of their employees? Is that why the US has the biggest and strongest middle class on the planet?
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:41 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95 View Post
Nobody is getting raped, in this country you're free to get another job or acquire new skills. THere are a host of labor laws to keep people from getting raped with low wages. If you sweep floors you probably shouldn't get paid what you or I make being in technology industries.

Most businesses do not take care of their employees? Is that why the US has the biggest and strongest middle class on the planet?
I was saying that most business does actually do their employees ok. In my ranting i didnt type it out so well.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:42 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
I was saying that most business does actually do their employees ok. In my ranting i didnt type it out so well.
Ahhh ok I was really gonna raise the WTF flag
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:49 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by 7960 View Post
Talk about getting deep in here. You make a bunch of assumptions and toss in some propaganda to make it seem pretty bad, but in the end this story really doesn't mean too much when you consider everything....

1. if his job didn't move who is to say your dad woudn't be welding truck today for $15/hr? Is that environment better for a 50 year old guy than inspecting trucks?
Well if we adjust $12 an hour for inflation to todays dollars, i'd say it would be more than $15 an hour.

2. if that company didn't move that job how do you know other companies wouldn't undercut his and put them entirely out of business?
There are only so many companies in the country with the capacity to push out what they did. They were like the big 3 auto makers, but of liquid bulk trailers.

3. in fear of #2, did your dad acquire any other useful skills? Having just one thing you're good at leaves you in at the mercy of someone else deciding your future. If all he can do is weld then he fucked himself, the company didn't fuck him.
Obviously he also knows hydraulics, the manufacturing business in general, welding, and owns 2 carwashes. While it is nice to assume that we can all just go to school and aquire more skills, he has 3 kids, a mortgage, and owns 2 carwashes..that he also bought while he was making good money. If it were not for those carwashes he would have lost his house. He can't just up and fucking quit or he would lose everything he owns and have to start over. That is not an option.

4. how far away did your dad consider moving when his job left? I'm just curious, because I know he wouldn't be complaining if he didn't at least check to see what other welding jobs in neighboring states are paying... so he did look to relocate, right?
His house he just bought (at the time) was here. Back then his first interest rate was about 9%, which was actually good for the time. Selling shortly after would have fucked him because essentially none of the payment goes to principle for the first few years. Our entire family is here also.

5. and since we're talking about it getting deep, here's my favorite, "cable tv, phone, and power guys life depends on him knowing the hydraulics..... You can't be a retard in his position or people die"....... I have no idea what this has to do with the story.
The point is the responsibility is far greater than the pay. There is talk of sweeping floors only deserves $7 or $8 an hour. The knowledge required to make sure these trucks function properly while someone is physically lifted in the air to work on power lines is worth far greater than $14 an hour.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 12:55 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95 View Post
Welding pays 40k/yr around here right out of welding training. And it is very much in demand here, its estimated that it will pay closer to 46k for the 2007 class from Tulsa Welding school.

China imports much of its steel each year especially the higher quality US and EU steel.

One of the biggest problems with higher paying jobs in this country is we DO NOT have enough people to fill the positions. As a result many high skilled mfg jobs are being left unfilled. Many white collar jobs are also going unfilled which is why we're seeing such low unemployment and increases in real wages.
Welding here, if you have 15 years experience MIGHT pay 40k here. Most entry level welders here are going to get 25k or about $12 an hour. The same wage he was getting here in 1979. Instead of inhaling fumes and blowing out black snot every day after work, he chooses a couple bucks more an hour to inspect these trucks.

Not having enough people to fill high paying positions is news to me. So is the increase in wages. The wage increases i see basically keep pace with inflation.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 01:09 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
Welding here, if you have 15 years experience MIGHT pay 40k here. Most entry level welders here are going to get 25k or about $12 an hour. The same wage he was getting here in 1979. Instead of inhaling fumes and blowing out black snot every day after work, he chooses a couple bucks more an hour to inspect these trucks.

Not having enough people to fill high paying positions is news to me. So is the increase in wages. The wage increases i see basically keep pace with inflation.


I've never really understood the attitude you bring to the table in this discussion. Everyone has bad things happen to them its not always someone else's fault, moreover this type of stuff is constantly taking place in a dynamic economy.

For example: I was born in 1981. Oklahoma City was doing very well in the energy boom. My grandparents owned two businesses my mom worked at one of their businesses and my dad was a cop. The major oil bust in 1986 caused the city to have major problems. The Penn Square bank fiasco almost bankrupted the city as a municipality and the result was significant wage cuts for police officers. Both of my grandparents businesses suffered greatly as a result of this energy downturn. The ultimate result was bankruptcy and divorce for my parents. My mother has only 3 college classes under her belt and my dad whne he was alive also only had a small amount of college.

The downturn in their income could have been avoided if they had additional skills. My dad made a choice to quit school and never go back. While he made reasonable money and even had a few other significant job offers come his way, he'd never have an opportunity to do a job like mine. My mother now works retail making about 12 bucks an hour, again this comes down to decisiosn they chose and continue to choose to make. I fail to see how the market has somehow screwed over my family while simultaneously ignoring the decisiosn they made that helped lead to the impact of the markets instability on their lives.

People that get trained in one specific area, aka welding, law enforcement, low level PC work, etc, put themselves at great risk to market fluctuations especially in localized markets. As you already said welding in Nebraska isn't paying shit, but down here its paying very well. So your dad could always move if he'd like. Or he could go to school and acquire new skills that are in demand today.

The wages in this country have outpaced inflation for 3 years (although 2004 pace was only like .1% higher). 2005 was a good year for wages and 2006 while the numbers aren't out yet look to be very good indeed. 2007 is also going to continue putting upward pressure on wages.

The lack of skilled labor for both high end mfg and white collar jobs has been made light of in numerous business publications. Forbes, Fortune the WSJ have all run fairly recent articles on it and the Fed already addressed it once this morning in his address to the house committee on economic affairs.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 01:13 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
Well if we adjust $12 an hour for inflation to todays dollars, i'd say it would be more than $15 an hour.
So you're saying he's complaining because he's got a less physically demanding job but is getting about what he would have been making if he was still welding?

Obviously he also knows hydraulics, the manufacturing business in general, welding, and owns 2 carwashes. While it is nice to assume that we can all just go to school and aquire more skills, he has 3 kids, a mortgage, and owns 2 carwashes..that he also bought while he was making good money. If it were not for those carwashes he would have lost his house. He can't just up and fucking quit or he would lose everything he owns and have to start over. That is not an option.
So he did everything right. He had a skill, utilized it, diversified and bought another business, and leaned on that when he needed to. I really don't know what the complaint is.
His house he just bought (at the time) was here. Back then his first interest rate was about 9%, which was actually good for the time. Selling shortly after would have fucked him because essentially none of the payment goes to principle for the first few years. Our entire family is here also.
All of my family lived in one area. When I graduated I couldn't afford to live here so I left. Eventually I got in the position where I could afford to move back, and I did. If my situation changed I would move again before I'd complain about there not being enough work where I am.

The point is the responsibility is far greater than the pay. There is talk of sweeping floors only deserves $7 or $8 an hour. The knowledge required to make sure these trucks function properly while someone is physically lifted in the air to work on power lines is worth far greater than $14 an hour.
I'd say teaching is more important than the job your dad is doing but I made less than $14/hr. While I agree the responsibility is greater than the pay, that's not how salary is decided.

Originally Posted by DosEquis View Post
Welding here, if you have 15 years experience MIGHT pay 40k here. Most entry level welders here are going to get 25k or about $12 an hour. The same wage he was getting here in 1979. Instead of inhaling fumes and blowing out black snot every day after work, he chooses a couple bucks more an hour to inspect these trucks.

Not having enough people to fill high paying positions is news to me. So is the increase in wages. The wage increases i see basically keep pace with inflation.
Sounds like he could get a hefty raise if he was willing to move...but since he's not, I'm not sure he has any right to complain.
 
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Old 02-15-2007, 02:10 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by 7960 View Post
So you're saying he's complaining because he's got a less physically demanding job but is getting about what he would have been making if he was still welding?
No, take 12 an hour and adjust it to todays money. 12 an hour back then was probably more like $25-30 an hour today. The house he bought then was $32,000. Today the same house is $132,000. Pay in that industry has not kept up because of outsourcing to mexico and china.