The economics of pulling out

[goldenponderbob]

Question: given that Iraq is a small country, less than a 10th the
size of the U. S., and, that we have dumped several hundred billion
into their economy since shock and awe began in 03,

That dough must filter all through their internal economy by now.

Will our departure and subsequent money spigot cutoff devastate
the economy of the fragile democracy we leave behind?

Something like the effect of the American stock market crash
and subsequent depression on European exonomies of the early
30's.

Is there an aspect to Nancy's "war money w/strings attached
that includes supporting them with bilion dollar alimony checks
long after our people come home (decades that lead to more
decades)?

If people scream at the thought of our departure, how will they
feel about coughing up taxpayer's cash after we're gone?

How will you feel when your joy, watching the big heroes parade
down 5th avenue for the returning troops, is tempered by the
news that we paid what amounts to ransom to get them out?

Could we become so important to their economy like a bread
winner with twelve kids and no life insurance, that perhaps at
some point we'll be so stuck that, like it or not, and can't get
them out no matter what.

If we leave cold turkey what becomes of those who depend on
our cash? Image a huge influx of muslim refugees, including
disquised Al Qaeda (of course), who will become dependent
upon taxpayer support!

One last parallel to Vietnam?

Oh well, we American taxpayers are a bottomless pit from which
a continuous flow of cash (the actual bill going to kids not
yet born) is always the answer to popular wants and wishes

That 700 mile fence with Mexico could be turned into turnstiles
collecting toll money for Iraq. If it turns out we can't keep them
from sneaking in, maybe we can get them to wire their American
cousins for the cost of getting in. Maybe their American cousins,
will turn them down!

Just Sunday afternoon musings,
goldenponderbob

[DosEquis]

Iraq will need to convince the rowdy citizens fighting its civil war that oil revenue is needed. Rumor has it they can pump 4 million buckets a day. At $65 a bucket we are talking a lot of money. To related it to the 'teach a man to fish' saying..

They know how to fish, they have fished before, we furthered their fishing knowledge for the last 4 years, and we even gave them a lot of fish. It is time they start using their knowledge of their culture, country, natural resources, and other things to start feeding themselves. I am tired of feeding them.

[Donkey®]

Report: Violence, corruption plague rebuilding effort - CNN.com

Originally Posted by article

Report: Violence, corruption plague rebuilding effort
POSTED: 10:22 a.m. EDT, April 30, 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. efforts to rebuild Iraq are so beset with daily violence, corruption and poor maintenance that Iraqis will not be capable of managing reconstruction anytime soon, investigators say.

The latest audit by the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction found that uncertainty and delays plague a U.S.-led war and rebuilding effort that has already cost nearly $400 billion (€293 billion).

Echoing what U.S. military commanders have acknowledged in recent days, the 210-page report being released Monday found that security remains highly volatile. Rates of attacks are lower, but attacks are more devastating, meaning greater disruption of services and public works. (Watch how the U.S. is also having trouble rebuilding the Iraqi army Video)

Corruption among Iraqi officials also appeared to be worsening. Iraq's annual financial loss now exceeds $5 billion (€3.66 billion) because of fraud and abuse that "afflicts virtually every Iraqi ministry," according to the report. It cites the ministries of oil, interior and defense as the biggest offenders.

"Persistent attacks on U.S.-funded infrastructure projects and sustainment challenges could jeopardize the completion of projects by their planned end-dates of mid- to late-2008," according to the report.

In a cover letter, Inspector General Stuart Bowen Jr. said the Iraqi government was assuming more of the financial burden for the recovery effort, but U.S. support "will remain relatively robust for the foreseeable future."

Responding to specific portions of the audit, William Lynch, acting director of the State Department's Iraq Reconstruction Management Office, indicated that it was unfair for investigators to hold the U.S. responsible for several of the cited problems, such as maintenance issues that he said were the Iraqis' responsibility.

"Recommendations such as how much water to use in cleaning floors or disposal of medical waste could be deemed as an intrusion on or attempt to micro-manage operations of an Iraqi entity that we have no controlling interest over," Lynch wrote.

The report comes as President Bush and the Democratic-controlled Congress struggle to chart the future of the war and reconstruction effort.

Bush has pledged to veto a $124.2 billion (€91 billion) war spending bill this week that would require the beginning of U.S. troop withdrawals by October 1. (Watch how Bush is defiant about congressional calls for troop withdrawals Video)

Both sides are now laying the groundwork for post-veto negotiations that Democrats hope will lay down benchmarks.

In recent days, Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. military commander in Iraq, has said the war effort may get harder before it gets easier -- with "an enormous commitment" still required by the United States.

In the report, investigators echoed that finding.

The report said the Baghdad government was making progress toward weeding out corrupt bureaucrats and that some officials, including eight ministers and 40 directors general, have been referred to the judiciary system in connection with the mismanagement of about $8 billion (€5.86 billion). (Watch Petraeus lay out his formula for success Video)
U.S. investment "at risk"

Where U.S.-funded projects are built and handed over to the Iraqis, they "are not being adequately maintained," the study said.

Sustainability is an important factor in explaining the slow progress in sectors such as oil, gas, water and electricity.

The report says that if Bowen's "sustainment reviews are representative of the quality and effectiveness of operation and maintenance on transitioned projects, the value of the United States investment in Iraqi reconstruction will be at risk." (Full story)

Maintenance also was a problem.

Summarizing audits it released in recent days, Bowen's office said inspections of eight U.S.-funded projects found widespread waste, decay and deterioration.

The problems ranged from sewage backups and makeshift electrical wiring at a recruiting center, to hypodermic needles, bandages and other medical waste in the sewer system's traps and septic tank at a maternity and pediatric hospital.

Insurgent attacks along with a limited judicial system and law enforcement problems hinder the progress of reconstruction and threaten to jeopardize the completion of U.S.-funded projects. (Read about Monday's violence)

The Defense Department reports an average of 1.4 insurgent attacks per week on critical elements in the electric, water, oil and gas sectors. Further worsening the situation, the report says, "repair teams sent in after attacks continue to face threats, including kidnapping and murder."

The violence has shut down railroads, forced the closing of schools and universities and slowed the construction of primary health care centers.

Among other findings:

• While targets for training and equipping Iraqi security forces have been achieved, the actual number of forces available at any given time is a concern.

• The actual number of present-for-duty soldiers is about one-half to one-third of the total because of scheduled leave, absence without leave and attrition.

• While the target training 135,000 Iraqi police was met during the quarter, there were problems in getting the police where they were needed.

This says it all.