A new Ron Paul Thread

[nerfball]

Ron Paul ‘08 Trailing Howard Dean ‘04: Analysis » Hit Him Again

Most comparisons are made between Ron Paul and Howard Dean because they are both anecdotally “internet candidates,” and many are wondering whether this is the early stage of a Howard Dean-like explosion. The two are eerily similar: both began in obscurity, both are doctors, both are or were wildly popular on the internet, and both surged in donations as a result. However, a historical comparison of their fund raising and polling data show two very different campaigns.

The following graph shows funding and polling leading up to the primary deadline (Year 0), and where Paul sits in comparison.*


Figure 1: Howard Dean’s Campaign from Inception to Conclusion compared against Ron Paul. *Note that, for this comparison, New Hampshire polling data is used despite it not being a “national poll” nor the first to have its primary. This choice intends to adopt Dean’s concentration on New Hampshire as a political strategy and does no disservice to Ron Paul, whose poll numbers have yet to distinguish themselves amongst Iowa, New Hampshire, or nationwide polls.

Consider the milestone differences between present-day Paul and the Howard Dean campaign circa 2004.

*

April 17, 2003 vs. April 15, 2007 - First quarters of 03 and 07 are in. Dean receives $2.6 millon for the quarter, coming in fifth place among Democrats. Paul receives $638,389, in sixth place among Republicans. Dean facing a field of 7, Paul facing a field of 10, their ranks among candidates at this point are roughly identical. Even so, Dean is already raising four times that of Ron Paul and even polling 15% in New Hampshire compared to Ron Paul’s 1%.
*

June 17, 2003 vs June 17, 2007 - Howard Dean airs the first television advertising of the 2004 campaign, costing more than $300,000. Ron Paul continues to rely on free media, does not spend money on advertising.
*

July 3, 2003 vs. July 15, 2007 - Howard Dean takes fund raising lead with $7.6 m in contributions. Ron Paul presumably comes in fourth with $2.4 m, but putting him in third place in the “cash on hand” category ahead of McCain. July quarterly earnings have yet to be provided by the FEC’s website, but the numbers can be estimated from Ron Paul’s interview with George Stephanopoulos. Dean is polling at 19% in New Hampshire to Ron Paul’s 3%.

Ron Paul appears to be at least a whole financial quarter behind Dean, both in contributions and strategy. Ron Paul’s move to spend money on advertising is just now getting started.

This does not suggest that Ron Paul will be incapable of having a Dean-like surge because he is four months behind. Having only one prior “internet candidate” for comparison is an inadequate basis to draw this conclusion, and there are some positive differences in the Paul campaign.

Paul has been able to generate $2.4 million off of 1% nationwide popularity - it took Dean 15% to raise those kinds of numbers. If this enthusiasm is infectious, Ron Paul may be able to achieve exponential growth.

Furthermore, as Ron Paul begins to spend, it may have a sudden and dramatic impact on his rankings in the polls. His biggest weakness is his anonymity: a whopping 75% of New Hampshire Republicans have no clue who he is. Howard Dean was already known by 97% of New Hampshire residents by this point. Mainstream advertising will also have a positive psychological effect on those already aware of Ron Paul but doubting his viability.

This quarter is pivotal. Converting incoming funds to advertising that reaches these vast unwashed masses must come at a fast clip if Ron Paul hopes to catch up to Dean. Dean will raise $14 million and begin polling like a front-runner (29%) in four months. Where will Ron Paul be?

That is pretty interesting. The Iowa Straw Poll next month is going to be pretty crucial for Paul. His campaign needs to gain some credibility and confidence. Regardless what some say, I think there are a lot of people that would be in his camp, but just don't think he can win.

[nerfball]

YouTube - Ron Paul on Morton Downey Jr. 1988 - Pt. 1

YouTube - Ron Paul on Morton Downey Jr. 1988 - Pt. 2

YouTube - Ron Paul on Morton Downey Jr. 1988 - Pt. 3

Jesus, what a clusterfuck of a show. I can't believe he went on that program while trying to run for office. The whole show is a shouting match and he has to yell at people just to be heard. Although, I agree whole heartedly with what he said, I think that this video would be used against him if this campaign becomes more powerful.

What do you guys think? I mean, he's literally screaming for freedom at times. Its pretty amazing.

[Dumpy Dooby]

http://www.libertylounge.net/forums/showthread.php?t=17015

[SoFlaJDM]

good thing broward county leans left... you'll be throwing your vote out

[Donkey®]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

I can't help but hoping all these people saying he doesn't have a chance get the opportunity to eat their words.

And you'll humbly admit defeat when he pulls in 1%?

[Ardentfrost]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

And you'll humbly admit defeat when he pulls in 1%?

Admit defeat? I'm not running for president here, lol.

I've never said he WILL become president... although a lot of people have said he WILL NOT. I would LIKE for him to get the republican nomination and go all the way to the white house. But if that doesn't happen, I'll just be saddened that we have to go through at least another 4 years of pro-big-government bullshit.

[thomez]

latest Ron Paul news is that he leads all Republican candidates in military campaign contributions

Military support for the republican candidates.

NAME: TOTAL [ARMY] [NAVY] [AIRFORCE] [VETERAN]

RON PAUL: 23,465 [6,975] [6,765] [4,650] [5,075]
MoneyMcCain: 15,825 [6925] [6305] [1795] [800]
Romney: 3,551 [2,051] [0] [1500] [0]
Rudy: 2,320 [1,450] [370] [250] [250]
Hunter: 1000 [0] [1000] [0]
Huckabee: 750 [250] [0] [500]
Tancredo: 350 [350] [0] [0]
Brownback: 71 [71] [0] [0]
Thompson: 0 [0] [0] [0]

Units are contributions in dollars by employees of the respective military organizations.

over 50% of all donations to Republican candidates from military members are going to Ron Paul... awesome!

[lew]

Originally Posted by thomez

latest Ron Paul news is that he leads all Republican candidates in military campaign contributions


over 50% of all donations to Republican candidates from military members are going to Ron Paul... awesome!

Latest Gallup Poll has Paul at 3%.

2008 Nomination Contests Holding Steady With Clinton and Giuliani on Top

[Publius]

Originally Posted by lew

Latest Gallup Poll has Paul at 3%.

2008 Nomination Contests Holding Steady With Clinton and Giuliani on Top

the climb begins

[thomez]

any Ron Paul supporters able to use Photoshop? I need help making a flyer for the local Ron Paul meetup group... please send a PM if you can help.