45 Million American Uninsured... more like, 18 million

[Ardentfrost]

JunkYardBlog: Q. When is 45 million not 45 million?

You've all heard the statistic: "45 million Americans with no health insurance." I just saw it in this article: "According to the U.S. Census Bureau, almost 45 million Americans have no health insurance." It's been a major topic for Democratic presidential candidates:


* John Edwards: "You tell me what it means when you ignore 45 million Americans today, who have no health care coverage."

* Hillary Clinton: "The money we save from the waste we eliminate and the way we change how we care for people should be used to help finance coverage for the 45 million Americans who have no insurance,"

* Barack Obama: "If you are one of the 45 million Americans who don't have health insurance, after this plan becomes law, you will have health insurance available to you,"

But if you look more closely, the numbers fall apart.

Oops, they counted non-citizens. So, what do I mean about 45 million not being 45 million? Well, the number originally came from the Census Bureau's 2005 Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC), which was corrected last year to 44.8 million people without health insurance. If you read the report, however, you'll find that 9.2 million of the uninsured are not citizens of the United States.

That means that there are 35.6 million Americans who don't have health insurance. That's 12.3% of the population, rather than the quoted 15.3%. Does "36 million" sound as impressive as "45 million?" I don't think so.

Let's pause here for a moment and consider what the Democrats are proposing. What they are saying is that they want to radically change the way health insurance is handled in this country because 1 person in 8 is without insurance. That is, they want to force 7 out of 8 people to change their health care system to accommodate that one person.

A tyranny of the minority.

Uninsured for how long? Now let's look at those 35.6 million people a little more closely. When we say that somebody is "uninsured," most of us imagine some poor betrodden worker laboring for years without medical attention because he can't get insurance. I call this "chronically uninsured" - somebody who can't afford to get into the insurance system, and so goes without insurance for long periods of time.

The Census Bureau report (cited above) notes that the number of uninsured people that they quote are not "chronically uninsured." In fact many of them have had insurance during the preceding year, but were "between insurances" at the time of the survey. They suggest looking at a Congressional Budget Office Report, "How Many People Lack Health Insurance and For How Long?," to understand this effect.

The Census Bureau says that its data best corresponds to a "point in time" survey, i.e., the answer you would get if you asked people: "Are you insured right now?" The CBO report tells us the relationship between "point in time" data and "uninsured all year" data:

The most direct comparison of the two measures comes from a study of SIPP data that found that 14.8 percent of Americans (including the elderly) were uninsured at a point in time in 1992, while 7.6 percent were uninsured all year.(13) That nearly two-to-one ratio is echoed in the 1998 figures from SIPP,16.6 percent versus 9.1 percent.


So of the 35.6 million uninsured from the Census Bureau survey, we can estimate that about half didn't have insurance for an entire year. Those 18 million people are the "chronically uninsured," and are the people that policy changes should address. Or, I should say more accurately, they are the only group of people whose plight warrants major legislative intervention.

I thought about putting this in the socialized health care thread, but I figured it might be better to make a new thread so those who are no longer following that thread will see

I know this is a blog, but I think the guy does a pretty good job of calling into question the census' numbers (using the census' numbers, nonetheless). Even if his estimate of 18 million is off, it does prove that the 45 million number often used is way off.

This certainly doesn't mean our system doesn't need adjustment... I've expressed quite a bit in the other thread that I'd like to see changes made to the system so that nothing gets in the way of a doctor treating his patient.

[SpicyMcVoodoo]

You can't talk about numbers of people without insurance without getting into people who are underinsured. After all, what is it? Half of all bankruptcies are caused by medical bills for people even with insurance? So even for those who do have insurance, you can't put them in the "taken care of" category just yet. And then you also have to consider those who have insurance but are denied claims because of whatever reason the insurance industry has come up with to increase profits.

[6SpeedTA95]

I think this topic in general is pretty humerous. The democrats always bitch and moan about how under Bush the number of uninsured has gone up to about 48 million when under Clinton (in 1996) it was at 43 million. What they do not tell you is as a % of population the number of uninsured has in fact gone down. Has it gone down of any substantial significance? Thats debatable but it is down.

No one is really without insurance in this country. I recently found out a friend of mine had heart surgery, 90,000 dollars paid for 100% by you and I the US tax payer because he couldn't afford it.

[Ardentfrost]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

You can't talk about numbers of people without insurance without getting into people who are underinsured. After all, what is it? Half of all bankruptcies are caused by medical bills for people even with insurance? So even for those who do have insurance, you can't put them in the "taken care of" category just yet. And then you also have to consider those who have insurance but are denied claims because of whatever reason the insurance industry has come up with to increase profits.

Dude, EVERYONE is under-insured given certain procedures. I have the best insurance available to me and if I got cancer or something that required years of treatment, I would probably be in debt for a long ass time.

[SpicyMcVoodoo]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

No one is really without insurance in this country. I recently found out a friend of mine had heart surgery, 90,000 dollars paid for 100% by you and I the US tax payer because he couldn't afford it.

And now he's got a 90K debt sitting on his head? Because surely getting 90K free surgery is not the norm.

[SpicyMcVoodoo]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

Dude, EVERYONE is under-insured given certain procedures. I have the best insurance available to me and if I got cancer or something that required years of treatment, I would probably be in debt for a long ass time.

And why do you see that as an acceptable situation?

[Ardentfrost]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

And why do you see that as an acceptable situation?

Have you not been reading my position? I do NOT see it as an acceptable situation, but I see socializing health care as a step AWAY from a solution. Transferring costs doesn't lower them.

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

And now he's got a 90K debt sitting on his head? Because surely getting 90K free surgery is not the norm.

NO he does not have any debt. he doesn't have insurance, the government paid for all of it because it was life threatening.

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

Have you not been reading my position? I do NOT see it as an acceptable situation, but I see socializing health care as a step AWAY from a solution. Transferring costs doesn't lower them.

That is a very good point.

[SpicyMcVoodoo]

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

NO he does not have any debt. he doesn't have insurance, the government paid for all of it because it was life threatening.

Under what government program do people get 90K of free surgery? Details please.

[thomez]

I'm chronically uninsured (over a year without health insurance), but my new job with insurance starts soon

[motivez]

That article takes a pretty big leap of faith when saying they can simply just do away with those "temporarily uninsured" from the figures. While a portion of them may get insurance, other people will lose theirs. I'll make a similarly large leap of faith and say that it probably balances out.

Either way, though, there's a serious problem with someone being forced to go into lifelong debt or declare bankruptcy because they need a medical procedure.

Even people with insurance don't always have procedures or medicine approved, the insurance companies will find ways to deny claims because it means less money for them, I've seen this first hand with people in my family.

Along with that, any time you go without insurance for any length of time, stuff previously covered by insurance will no longer be due to it being considered a 'pre-existing condition' - and they'll make any excuse they can to declare some condition that comes up pre-existing. I've seen this first hand as well.

Practicing medicine and treating people should be about making people healthy first. I have very little sympathy for companies who make it their business to profit off of someone's misery.

[Ardentfrost]

That article takes a pretty big leap of faith when saying they can simply just do away with those "temporarily uninsured" from the figures. While a portion of them may get insurance, other people will lose theirs. I'll make a similarly large leap of faith and say that it probably balances out.

Yes, but while there is a CHANCE the 18 million non-chronically uninsured Americans will contract something major causing them economic turmoil, the other 18 million Americans who are chronically uninsured are the ones that are the real problem. I've been between insurance companies before... that means i just didn't go to the doctor until I was insured again. Sure, I might have missed a check-up or something, but I was ok. It'd have sucked if I had been in a horrible car wreck or something like that, but we're talking about 6% of the population here... a few of them probably ended up in that insurance trap, but the chances are so small, it's pointless to talk about them.

[Stylerod]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

Under what government program do people get 90K of free surgery? Details please.

My nephew had knee surgery and about a $20,000 hospital bill. He told them he had no insurance, they looked at his financial papers and told him it was taken care of. He ended up paying about $1000 of it and is now in the clear.

I asked him who paid for it and the lady at the hospital said there is a government program for people with no income (he's in college) to get most of their hospital medical bills paid for. That's all I really know though.

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

You can't talk about numbers of people without insurance without getting into people who are underinsured. After all, what is it? Half of all bankruptcies are caused by medical bills for people even with insurance? So even for those who do have insurance, you can't put them in the "taken care of" category just yet. And then you also have to consider those who have insurance but are denied claims because of whatever reason the insurance industry has come up with to increase profits.

What does 'underinsured' mean?

[northhunter]

Looks like this story is the same as any other involving politicans and numbers. Figures don't lie, but liars sure as hell figure!

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

Under what government program do people get 90K of free surgery? Details please.

It was medicaid and his condition was life threatening so they performed the surgery and bill the government.

[thomez]

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

What does 'underinsured' mean?

It means you have insurance but it has low payouts or sucks in other ways that would make you badly indebted if you needed anything expensive done. Even though you have insurance, it won't cover everything, so you are underinsured.

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by thomez

It means you have insurance but it has low payouts or sucks in other ways that would make you badly indebted if you needed anything expensive done. Even though you have insurance, it won't cover everything, so you are underinsured.

So everyone is underinsured.

No insurance covers EVERYTHING.