National Poll: Thompson 25% Giuliani 24%

[Ron Burgundy]

Rasmussen Reports - The race for of the Republican Presidential nomination following the July 4th holiday looks a lot like it did before the nation's birthday party. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani essentially tied for the lead. It's Thompson at 25% and Giuliani at 24%.

Trailing the frontrunners at a distance are former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Arizona Senator John McCain. They're tied at 12%.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback each attract support from 2% of voters nationally. Five other candidates split 3% of the vote (Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, Congressman Duncan Hunter, former Governors Tommy Thompson and former Governor Jim Gilmore). Twenty percent (20%) of likely Republican Primary Voters are undecided at this time.

The national telephone survey of 626 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted from Monday, July 9 through Thursday July 12. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Data for the Democratic Presidential Nomination was also released today and New York Senator Hillary Clinton remains on top.

Results throughout the week were stable for all candidates except McCain. The man from Arizona earned 14% support in the poll on Monday and Tuesday nights before slipping to 10% on Wednesday and Thursday. Interestingly, that support did not flow to any other candidate; the number of undecideds grew from 18% early in the week to 22% later in the week. On Tuesday, the McCain campaign organization imploded when the campaign manager, chief strategist, and other top officials left.

It remains to be seen whether the dip in support for McCain is the beginning of a trend, a temporary blip, or statistical noise. Rasmussen Reports will release our next update of the Republican race on Monday, July 16 and begin daily tracking at that time.

Separate polling released yesterday showed that a plurality of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of the Arizona Senator. Among Republicans, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 40%. That same survey showed McCain falling further behind Senator Hillary Clinton.

Another survey released yesterday showed Giuliani trailing Clinton by just a single percentage point. Clinton is tied with Thompson and holds a four-point advantage over Romney.

Many Washington insiders tend to dismiss Thompson for a variety of reasons, but it is not clear how well these insiders understand GOP primary voters. After all, they misjudged reaction to both Giuliani and McCain (to say nothing of a total misreading of the public during the immigration debate). Some things viewed as negatives by insiders—such as walking away from a career in the Senate—may be viewed differently by voters. Still, it is fair to expect that perceptions of Thompson will change once he enters the rough and tumble of the campaign. The next three months will probably give us a very clear indication of whether Thompson will sink or swim.

For Romney, the question about his viability is the same, but it is asked from a different perspective. Many insiders have long viewed him as the natural conservative challenger to Giuliani. He's good looking, rich, and has built a serious campaign organization. But, for Romney, the polling numbers have been less than exhilarating. In national polling, the man from Massachusetts has struggled in the 10% to 12% range for months and can't seem to gain any traction.

Romney does lead in New Hampshire, but those numbers also suggest an underlying weakness. Romney is from neighboring Massachusetts and well known to New Hampshire voters. On top of that, he is the only candidate to be advertising on television in the state. He should be way ahead rather than nursing a nine-point lead. Will his advantage hold when other candidates begin to get their message out on the airwaves? If he ekes out a narrow victory on his home turf, will that help or hurt?

In the end, the answers to questions about Thompson and Romney will tell us a lot about the likely GOP nominee. If Thompson is still on top of the polls three months after he formally enters the campaign, he will clearly be the person to beat. If Thompson stumbles, Romney will become the anybody-but-Giuliani candidate. If both Thompson and Romney stumble, the GOP could very well nominate the man dismissed by pundits at the beginning of this campaign season—Rudy Giuliani.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20070713/pl_rasmussen/gopprimary20070713 [link]

[Thorgrim]

Problem is...you go to the big states and Rudy has double digit leads