National Poll: Clinton 38% Obama 26%

[Ron Burgundy]

Rasmussen Reports - While Illinois Senator Barack Obama is the fundraising leader, New York Senator Hillary Clinton remains the clear frontrunner in polls for the Democratic Presidential nomination. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Clinton with 38% of the vote, Obama at 26% and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 13%. Those results are virtually unchanged from our previous poll.

Clinton has been gaining ground steadily in recent months. This week's poll support of 38% matches her average for the preceding four weeks. During the four weeks before that, she averaged 35%. That figure itself was up three points from the preceding four weeks total of 32%.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is favored by 3% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Joe Biden, Senator Chris Dodd and Congressman Dennis Kucinich each attract 2% of the vote. Former Senator Mike Gravel remains below the 1% mark and 13% are undecided.

Clinton and Obama have topped the polls and the fundraising since the beginning of the campaign season. Despite their lead, 46% of all voters still believe the Democrats are likely to nominate a white male for President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say they are not likely to do so.

The national telephone survey of 791 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted from Monday, July 9 through Thursday July 12. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Data for the Republican Presidential Nomination was also released today—former Tennessee Senator and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remain on top.

The next update for the Democratic Primary Nomination will be released on Monday, July 16. Daily tracking will begin at that time.

As Democrats vie for the right to replace President Bush, just 19% of Americans believe that the President's troop surge in Iraq was a success.

General election polling released yesterday showed Clinton remains in a toss-up with Giuliani. She's opened a bigger lead over Arizona Senator John McCain. McCain's campaign imploded last week and a plurality of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the man once considered the Republican frontrunner. Earlier surveys show Clinton tied with Thompson and holding a modest lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Obama trails Giuliani by three and leads Thompson by two. New data for Obama's match-ups with McCain and Romney will be released over the weekend.

Edwards is tied with Giuliani and leads Thompson, Romney, and McCain.

While Clinton was expected to be the frontrunner at this point in the campaign, no one expected Illinois Senator Barack Obama to emerge as such a strong challenger to the former First Lady. In fact, while it may be premature to write off all of the other candidates, it is fair to say that Clinton and Obama are the only top-tier candidates currently in the field. The charismatic newcomer has consistently polled in the mid-to-high twenty percent range and maintained a double digit lead over everyone but Clinton.

Former Senator John Edwards is down, but not out. He has struggled to gain traction in the polls and in the fundraising competition. But, he is well entrenched in Iowa also has fewer people committed to voting against him than any other candidate in either party. At the moment, however, it appears that Edwards is waiting in the wings for one of the top-tier candidates to stumble.

Rasmussen Reports regularly updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20070713/pl_rasmussen/demprimary20070713 [link]