Election 2008: Clinton Virtually Tied with GOP Frontrunners Giuliani, Thompson

[Ron Burgundy]

Rasmussen Reports - Senator Hillary Clinton is pulling away from the field in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination but remains weaker than other major Democratic contenders in match-ups with top Republicans.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone shows former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over the former First Lady, 46% to 45%. Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson posts exactly the same numbers when matched against Clinton. It's Thompson 46% Clinton 45%.

In June, Clinton was a point ahead of Giuliani and even with Thompson.

Like other Democratic candidates, Senator Clinton has gained ground on Giuliani in recent months. Since April, in poll after poll, Clinton and Giuliani have been separated by a point at most. But fellow Democrats are doing better. Former Senator John Edwards can now boast a seven-point lead over the mayor, Senator Obama has a six-point lead over him.

The same comparison obtains in match-ups with Senator Thompson, who is even with Giuliani in the GOP nomination race. While Clinton and Thompson have been close each time we ask about that match-up, Obama leads Thompson by six. Senator Edwards can still wrest a double-digit lead over Thompson.

These data reflect the stability and strength of opinions both good and bad about Clinton. She is very popular with Democrats, but burdened by a high unfavorable rating in more mixed company. She is now viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats, and Very Favorably by 43%.

But, when the question is asked of all voters, the former First Lady is viewed favorably by just 49% and unfavorably by 48%. That latter figure includes 34% with a Very Unfavorable opinion (nearly half of all voters say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008).

From an ideological perspective, Democrats see little difference between Clinton and Obama. But, 78% of Republicans see Clinton as politically liberal while only 55% say the same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 49% see Clinton is liberal. Thirty-six percent (36%) of unaffiliateds see Obama as politically liberal.

Because she is so well-known, opinions about Clinton are less likely to shift dramatically during a campaign than opinions about any other candidate. Clinton's popularity within her own party, and the lack of a clear ideological difference, makes it likely the Democrats will nominate her unless Barack Obama can show them a definitive reason to change their mind.

Things are much different in the Republican race where voters perceive a wide ideological gap is seen between Thompson and Giuliani. Thompson is generally seen as politically conservative while most Republicans see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.

But, both candidates are well liked within their own party. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republicans view Giuliani favorably while 64% say the same about Thompson.

Thompson is not a well known as Giuliani. Overall, among all voters, he is viewed favorably by 43%, unfavorably by 35%. Just over a fifth of all voters don't know enough to have an opinion one way or the other.

Giuliani's overall favorable rating has slipped to 50% in the latest poll, with 42% holding a negative view. Those are Giuliani's weakest numbers so far in Election 2008.

The two Republican leaders are thus neither as popular with their own party as Clinton, nor as unpopular with all voters.

This national telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 30-31, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is between +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20070802/pl_rasmussen/clintonthompsongiuliani20070802 [link]