During August, Clinton Continues to Build Support

[Ron Burgundy]

Rasmussen Reports - August is shaping up like the previous several months in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. New York Senator Hillary Clinton has built a bit more support than the month before while the other candidates remain essentially where they were (review week-by-week numbers).

Rasmussen Reports national polling shows that Clinton's support averaged 33% for all polls released in April. Her support increased to 35% in May, 36% in June and 39% in July. The first three polls released in August show her averaging 41% support.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama's support averages 23% for the first three weeks in August. That's down slightly from 25% in July, 26% in June, and 27% in May. Obama peaked on the eve of the first Presidential debate. For the month of April, his support averaged 31%.

Former North Carolina Senate John Edwards has consistently hovered in the low-to-mid teens, a distant third.

In addition to leading the national polls, Clinton also leads the early Primaries in New Hampshire and Florida.

It is worth noting that Clinton's numbers are down slightly from the first week in August. However, the frontrunner has polled above the 40% mark for four straight weeks, a level she never reached earlier in the year. Rasmussen Reports continues to see Hillary Clinton as the default candidate of the Democratic Party. It is likely that she will win the nomination unless something dramatically shakes up the race.

Obama's camp has argued that national polls are meaningless because the early state polls show a more competitive scenario. It is true that a solid defeat of Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire could radically alter the race. However, it would have to be a very solid victory to knock Clinton out of frontrunner status.

Rasmussen Reports has released a series of state polls matching Clinton against a variety of Republican hopefuls. In Arkansas, the data suggests that Clinton could achieve a rare Democratic victory in a southern state. In Oregon, on the other hand, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 51% and will have to work to keep that state in the Democratic column. Other state data was released last week for Ohio, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday. Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.

In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.

For the seven days ending August 19, 2007, Hillary Clinton earns 41% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 23% followed by John Edwards at 13%. Delaware Senator Joe Biden tops the second-tier candidates at 4% followed by New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (3%), Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (2%), Chris Dodd (1%), and Mike Gravel (1%). Eleven percent (11%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided. (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20070820/pl_rasmussen/demupdate20070820 [link]