Democrats Nightmare Scenario

[RMNIXON]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Failure to end the Iraq war has so divided Democrats it could jeopardize their chances of consolidating power in U.S. elections in November 2008, analysts said.

Nearly a year since the party parlayed discontent over the unpopular war into a majority in Congress, liberal Democrats, prodded by influential Internet bloggers, are pressing harder than ever for action to bring U.S. troops home.
Centrists, concerned about alienating conservative voters in swing districts, are wary of moving too precipitously, the analysts say.

The bottom line for Democrats was that they won a majority by picking up seats in marginal or nominally Republican districts, said Ethan Siegal, an analyst for The Washington Exchange, which monitors Congress for institutional investors.

"If the Democrats want to keep control of the House in the 2008 elections, they can't force those members to take certain Iraq votes, he said.

Democratic divisions may grow after Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, reports to Congress in September on the results of President George W. Bush's policy of building up troops as a way to stabilize Iraq.

Even a positive report is unlikely to sway the anti-war liberal Democrats, but it will make it difficult for centrist Democrats from more conservative districts to support pulling out troops, the analysts said.

Democrats who had hesitated to vote for timetables and various withdrawal schemes "are going to be even more hesitant now," Siegal said.

"It will be the Democratic left, which is probably immune to any news of success in Iraq, against the middle-of-the-road America," said Matthew Woessner, a political expert at Pennsylvania State University.

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

"A nightmare scenario for any party is when the pressure, the sum total of the pressures from their constituency groups, are out of step with mainstream America. That's a prescription for electoral disaster," he added.

And liberal Democrats, who felt marginalized by President Bill Clinton and his centrist supporters in the 1990s, don't seem inclined to let up. They have gained substantial influence in the party over the past decade with a well-organized network of bloggers, fund-raisers and activists linked through the Internet.

Successful bloggers, like Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, regularly use the Internet to debate ideas, editorialize and criticize Democrats who compromise liberal principles. Fund-raising sites like ActBlue.com have collected tens of millions of dollars for Democratic candidates.

"The explosion of the success of the left-wing blogosphere has placed the Democrats under even more pressure from their left," Woessner said.

Democrats know they can tap into online activists for resources, money and time.

But the electoral map limits how far the party can move to the left if Democrats hope to retain power in Congress and build their majority, Siegal said.

"The Democrats can't control the House and the Senate unless they elect centrists also," he said. "And they can't elect their centrists by having a totally liberal agenda."


The success of liberal Democrats in prodding the party to the left has begun to draw expressions of concern from centrists.

"Some liberals are so confident about Democratic prospects that they contend the centrism that vaulted Democrats to victory in the 1990s no longer matters," former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee, the head of centrist Democratic Leadership Council, and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley wrote in The Washington Post.

Democrat split on Iraq may hurt '08 chances: analysts - Yahoo! News


Lets just say the warning has been posted and noted. Not that an entire political party will listen to the likes of Dick Nixon. But that is part of the fun of political punditry. Those who do it are most often clearly on one side or the other, but know that advice will not be taken by the other side seriously. If anything there will be a stubborn revolt against it. The Democrats still have a chance to take plenty of Netroots money but shake off some of that influence. But I suspect it wont happen or if it does it will be too little too late. And Rudy and Thompson need not worry about much pandering to the religious/social conservative base, some who are out of the mainstream, because Hillary will more than likely get them to the polls anyway.

As for the actual elections, all bets are still off. But overconfidence is a fools bet!

[JaJae]

Ut oh, looks like they won't be able to bribe enough votes this time.

[DosEquis]

Though Iraq is a huge part of their campaign, and a huge issue with the american people, there is more to it than that. Democrats can still win if Iraq can find a little success. My guess is that Iraq's "success" has peaked. If i had to give them a grade they went from F- to F. We also are simply out of soldiers. We can't maintain the surge or this rotation we have. Their government is out of time, not due to us wanting to leave, but being forced to leave because of rotation schedules for our soldiers.

[RMNIXON]

I still think Iraq, Terror, and the state of the economy by mid 2008 will be the main issues. Healthcare and what to do with Illegals will be the prime social issues. The lesser stuff I think will be a battlegroud for the extreme partisans but not the majority of voters.