Important Special Congressional elections today! Ohio's 5th/Virginia's 1st

[Thorgrim]

The more covered race is Ohio's 5th district



As you can see it's been largely gerrymandered to make it an ultra-safe GOP district, Bush carried the district by 61 points and beat Kerry by 22 pts, it's one of the most republican district in the country

In 2005 Paul Hackett had a similiar encounter that foreshadowed a big Democratic wave by coming close in a district, with about as heavily a Republican district as this...

A leaked internal GOP poll has the candidate actually down in the race...but polls don't mean anything at this point except if it's a race...it's all about turnout...if the district at large turns out, Latta (R) wins, if there is a new voter turnout or a low turnout, the Democrat should win...should would send shockwaves towards Republicans in much less safe district

Virginia's First is a similiar but different story, it hasn't gotten the attention, and there are no polls showing it's even a race, but as with all special elections, crazy things can happen, and the Democrat is an Iraq War veteran who has connected with the community, even if the Republican has more in common



Another 60+% Bush district, and even worse for Democrats, it went 54% to George Allen in 2006


If the Democrats even come close in either election, it will be a big sign...I can't even say what the final consequences will be...more GOP retirements...more GOP doom and gloom...who knows

However, I will say two things

1) Special elections do not have a great track record for predictioning that cycles outcome...otherwise CA-50 going solidyly GOP right after Duke went to jail would have meant the GOP was going to keep its seats
2) This is not like MA-05, where the GOP candidate came close...the Democrat only won because of who her husband was...and by all records was not connected to the district, didn't particularly care about the campaign as she figured her dead husband would guarnatee her victory, and the district itself was quite open to republicans...it went for Mitt Romney and only barely went for Deval Patrick (D) when he won by an outrageous margin in every other district...the district simply isn't electrified by Democrats, in a good year for Democrats, 1990, the Democrat on the normal election day couldn't even get half the vote, only won with a plurality...

OH-05? It's so Republican that the last time it elected a new Democrat was FDR's 1932 landslide election, and he lost re-election after 4 terms for no real reason except the district never really liked Democrats...never has and it looked like...never will

That's why this election is so important

[SoFlaJDM]

i'm sure the dems will do pretty well in this district... a win may be a little out of reach, but a good showing here will be a sign of what's gonna come this november

[Thorgrim]

Virginia 1st is over, something like 15% turnout, Republican won by margins regular to 2006 normal elections

[Thorgrim]

The Republican won OH-05 by a healthy margin

At least the Dems can say they forced the GOP to spend over 13% of their cash on hand to defend a gerrymandered seat that voted for Bush by 22 points

GOP can say they stopped a disaster