Interesting way of gauging probability of GOP retaining congress

SpicyMcVoodoo · 09-04-2006, 06:00 PM

Betting Exchange - TradeSports - Trading Exchange. is basically a futures market where people bet on all sorts of stuff, including GOP control of the House and Senate. I've read all sorts of articles which show futures markets are the most accurate predictors of this sort of thing, which, by the way, is why they almost made a terror futures market. Efficient market theory and all that...

Anywho, click on this link

TradeSports Trading & Betting Exchange, part of Trade Exchange Network.

As of right now, they have it at about 40% chance GOP will control the House, and 80% they will control the Senate.

6SpeedTA95 · 09-04-2006, 06:01 PM

Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo

Betting Exchange - TradeSports - Trading Exchange. is basically a futures market where people bet on all sorts of stuff, including GOP control of the House and Senate. I've read all sorts of articles which show futures markets are the most accurate predictors of this sort of thing, which, by the way, is why they almost made a terror futures market. Efficient market theory and all that...

Anywho, click on this link

TradeSports Trading & Betting Exchange, part of Trade Exchange Network.

As of right now, they have it at about 40% chance GOP will control the House, and 80% they will control the Senate.

I would say those odds are about right.

Thorgrim · 09-04-2006, 06:02 PM

40%-80% on Intrade.com too

Intrade_TradeSports · 09-06-2006, 03:01 AM

Thanks all for your interest in TradeSports and our sister non-sports exchange, Intrade.

As you may know there has been a great deal of academic research completed on the accuracy of markets like ours on predicting future uncertain events.

The recent book "The Wisdom of Crowds" speaks well to the issues also.

In todays information overload world we believe a picture really does paint 1000 words. A simple chart and figure of the probability of an event occuring summarises a great deal of information.

Here is a chart link of GOP Senate control.

SpicyMcVoodoo · 09-06-2006, 03:38 AM

Originally Posted by Intrade_TradeSports

Thanks all for your interest in TradeSports and our sister non-sports exchange, Intrade.

As you may know there has been a great deal of academic research completed on the accuracy of markets like ours on predicting future uncertain events.

The recent book "The Wisdom of Crowds" speaks well to the issues also.

In todays information overload world we believe a picture really does paint 1000 words. A simple chart and figure of the probability of an event occuring summarises a great deal of information.

Here is a chart link of GOP Senate control.

ballz2wallz · 09-06-2006, 07:42 AM

what the...

ballz2wallz · 09-06-2006, 08:20 AM

unless mr. intrade plans on posting more...

ibbanforspam

Ardentfrost · 09-06-2006, 09:31 AM

Well, that's a LL first

WickedLou9 · 09-06-2006, 09:43 AM

I bet they are monitoring site refers and saw a bunch of hits from the LL.

Stylerod · 09-06-2006, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

Well, that's a LL first

Publius · 09-06-2006, 10:44 AM

trader link outta nowhere

Publius · 09-06-2006, 10:45 AM

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

unless mr. intrade plans on posting more...

ibbanforspam

He didn't spam though, he direct linked to the graphs for us.

ballz2wallz · 09-06-2006, 10:49 AM

ibheneverpostsagain

6SpeedTA95 · 09-06-2006, 10:55 AM

Originally Posted by Intrade_TradeSports

Thanks all for your interest in TradeSports and our sister non-sports exchange, Intrade.

As you may know there has been a great deal of academic research completed on the accuracy of markets like ours on predicting future uncertain events.

The recent book "The Wisdom of Crowds" speaks well to the issues also.

In todays information overload world we believe a picture really does paint 1000 words. A simple chart and figure of the probability of an event occuring summarises a great deal of information.

Here is a chart link of GOP Senate control.

Hey man! Welcome aboard

SpicyMcVoodoo · 09-06-2006, 12:13 PM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

I bet they are monitoring site refers and saw a bunch of hits from the LL.

Too bad it wasn't an affiliate link so that the owner could be rolling in dough.

6SpeedTA95 · 09-06-2006, 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by ballz2wallz

unless mr. intrade plans on posting more...

ibbanforspam

Meh...maybe, we'll see if it happens again, if it does he'll be gone.

thomez · 09-06-2006, 12:45 PM

that ain't spam, that's badassery