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Old 09-04-2006, 06:00 PM   #1
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Interesting way of gauging probability of GOP retaining congress

Betting Exchange - TradeSports - Trading Exchange. is basically a futures market where people bet on all sorts of stuff, including GOP control of the House and Senate. I've read all sorts of articles which show futures markets are the most accurate predictors of this sort of thing, which, by the way, is why they almost made a terror futures market. Efficient market theory and all that...

Anywho, click on this link

TradeSports Trading & Betting Exchange, part of Trade Exchange Network.

As of right now, they have it at about 40% chance GOP will control the House, and 80% they will control the Senate.
 
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Old 09-04-2006, 06:01 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by SpicyMcVoodoo View Post
Betting Exchange - TradeSports - Trading Exchange. is basically a futures market where people bet on all sorts of stuff, including GOP control of the House and Senate. I've read all sorts of articles which show futures markets are the most accurate predictors of this sort of thing, which, by the way, is why they almost made a terror futures market. Efficient market theory and all that...

Anywho, click on this link

TradeSports Trading & Betting Exchange, part of Trade Exchange Network.

As of right now, they have it at about 40% chance GOP will control the House, and 80% they will control the Senate.
I would say those odds are about right.
 
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Old 09-04-2006, 06:02 PM   #3
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40%-80% on Intrade.com too
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 03:01 AM   #4
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TradeSports & Intrade



Thanks all for your interest in TradeSports and our sister non-sports exchange, Intrade.

As you may know there has been a great deal of academic research completed on the accuracy of markets like ours on predicting future uncertain events.

The recent book "The Wisdom of Crowds" speaks well to the issues also.

In todays information overload world we believe a picture really does paint 1000 words. A simple chart and figure of the probability of an event occuring summarises a great deal of information.

Here is a chart link of GOP Senate control.



 
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Old 09-06-2006, 03:38 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Intrade_TradeSports View Post


Thanks all for your interest in TradeSports and our sister non-sports exchange, Intrade.

As you may know there has been a great deal of academic research completed on the accuracy of markets like ours on predicting future uncertain events.

The recent book "The Wisdom of Crowds" speaks well to the issues also.

In todays information overload world we believe a picture really does paint 1000 words. A simple chart and figure of the probability of an event occuring summarises a great deal of information.

Here is a chart link of GOP Senate control.



 
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Old 09-06-2006, 07:42 AM   #6
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what the...
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 08:20 AM   #7
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unless mr. intrade plans on posting more...

ibbanforspam
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 09:31 AM   #8
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Well, that's a LL first
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 09:43 AM   #9
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I bet they are monitoring site refers and saw a bunch of hits from the LL.
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 09:45 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Ardentfrost View Post
Well, that's a LL first
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 10:44 AM   #11
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trader link outta nowhere
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 10:45 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by ballz2wallz View Post
unless mr. intrade plans on posting more...

ibbanforspam
He didn't spam though, he direct linked to the graphs for us.
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 10:49 AM   #13
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ibheneverpostsagain
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 10:55 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Intrade_TradeSports View Post


Thanks all for your interest in TradeSports and our sister non-sports exchange, Intrade.

As you may know there has been a great deal of academic research completed on the accuracy of markets like ours on predicting future uncertain events.

The recent book "The Wisdom of Crowds" speaks well to the issues also.

In todays information overload world we believe a picture really does paint 1000 words. A simple chart and figure of the probability of an event occuring summarises a great deal of information.

Here is a chart link of GOP Senate control.




Hey man! Welcome aboard
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 12:13 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by WickedLou9 View Post
I bet they are monitoring site refers and saw a bunch of hits from the LL.
Too bad it wasn't an affiliate link so that the owner could be rolling in dough.
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 12:31 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by ballz2wallz View Post
unless mr. intrade plans on posting more...

ibbanforspam
Meh...maybe, we'll see if it happens again, if it does he'll be gone.
 
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Old 09-06-2006, 12:45 PM   #17
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that ain't spam, that's badassery
 
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