Iowa this week, what are your predictions?

[Ardentfrost]

oh

[hsmith]

not what i expected

but oh well

Suprised by Obama though

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by hsmith

not what i expected

but oh well

Suprised by Obama though

I expected it. I thought he'd come out with about 10 points over Hillary.

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by JaJae

I expected it. I thought he'd come out with about 10 points over Hillary.

I was shocked how close it was between the three

[Ardentfrost]

Originally Posted by DosEquis

i really hope biden does well... at least well enough that the media mentions his name more...and can keep building momentum.

He just dropped out according to "Breaking News" at msnbc.

[David Octavius]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

He just dropped out according to "Breaking News" at msnbc.

Biden, Gravel and Dodd dropped out..more to follow

Edit - Put Richardson in by accident

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by David Octavius

Biden, Gravel and Dodd dropped out..more to follow

Edit - Put Richardson in by accident

Richardson already dropped out. He's telling people to vote for Obama. He may not have done it formally yet, but he's done.

[motivez]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Looks like you do better with REPUBLICANS!

Drudge:

RESULTS:
Obama 37.53; Edwards 29.88; Clinton 29.41
Huckabee 34; Romney 25; Thompson 14; McCain 13%; Paul 10%

OBAMA!

I @ Hillary!

Some needed wind in the sails of Fred Thompson's Campaign!

Ron Paul has a voice afterall.

Yeah, I really thought that Edwards strategy of focusing on the smaller precincts, (since they get the same number of delegates as the big cities) would pay off.. but the turnout was so much bigger than anyone expected that Obama really just ran away with it.

I also think the "second choice" thing played a huge role, I really didn't know all that much about it until a few days ago, but I think those people switching from non-viable (15%) candidates to Obama and Edwards really hurt Clinton's effort tonight

Looks like I got the Republican right except for Grandpa Fred, I really thought he was dead in the water, he's so lackluster in person when giving speeches, etc.. I'm amazed people were enthusiastic enough to vote for him.

[lew]

Thompson is the big surprise for me too.

I thought he was dead in the water.

[motivez]

Paul came in 1st of Independent Republican voters in Iowa, so that's something I guess. He got only 21% of the under 30 vote though.. 40% went to Huckabee, and 22% to Romney. That's *very* surprising to me.. I thought he'd do better among younger people.. Any Paulers want to comment about that?

I also really have to wonder whether or not a lot of Republicans switched to the Democratic caucus process in order to vote for either Obama or Edwards to take away form Clinton?

[motivez]

Oh, and I was kind of surprised that Fox cut away from Hillary's concession speech, they didn't do that for any other candidate on either side that I noticed.. but maybe I missed something since I was watching at the gym

[motivez]

From Daily Kos:

Richard Viguerie is one of the architects of the conservative movement, pioneering the use of direct mail to raise money and rally the troops. He's the first in what will be many conservatives to trash Huckabee. From Viguerie's email list:

Mike Huckabee's victory in the Iowa caucuses is bad news for the Republican Party.

"Mike Huckabee is a Christian socialist. He is a good man, but with a Big Government heart. He is the most liberal of all the Republican presidential candidates on economic issues.

"Huckabee's approach to every problem or perceived problem is to pass a law and launch another government program. If you like President George W. Bush, you'll love Mike Huckabee.

"If, on the other hand, you're a limited government conservative in the grand tradition of Robert A. Taft, Barry Goldwater, and Ronald Reagan, you will want to redouble your efforts to make sure Huckabee doesn't win the Republican nomination. Four years of a Huckabee presidency would ensure that there wouldn't be a penny's worth of differences between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party on economic issues.

"Much has been made of Mike Huckabee's strong stance on social issues. In the 1970s, we conservatives had two legs on our stool—economic responsibility and a strong national defense—but that wasn't enough to win many elections. It wasn't until we added the third leg to our stool—social issues—that conservatives were able to win elections consistently.

"Now Huckabee wants to go back to a two-legged stool—social issues and defense. He would saw off the economic leg. That's a recipe for disaster for the Republican Party. Economic and traditional conservatives would stay home in droves, turning the country over to the Democrats.

"Conservatives in New Hampshire and the other early primary states had better wake up, and make certain the Huckabee victory is confined to the subsidized ethanol fields of Iowa."

[motivez]

One other point in my string of posts, apparently the Democratic turnout was about double that of the Republicans, what do you guys think that means going forward for the other primaries and the general election?

I kinda get a feeling that there isn't really any solid candidate that can really energize ALL Republicans, because they're so ideologically different.. Huckabee being mainly socially conservative, vs some others who are more economic.. I think it's possible that without a candidate with the right blend of qualities gets it (which is probably McCain of any of them), the turnout for the election will be significantly lower than the Republicans are going to want

But on the Democratic side, if Obama gets it, I think the entire party will really rally behind him with amazing enthusiasm, he's a very likable figure and Democrats REALLY don't want another 4 years of a Republican in the White House..

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by motivez

One other point in my string of posts, apparently the Democratic turnout was about double that of the Republicans, what do you guys think that means going forward for the other primaries and the general election?

I kinda get a feeling that there isn't really any solid candidate that can really energize ALL Republicans, because they're so ideologically different.. Huckabee being mainly socially conservative, vs some others who are more economic.. I think it's possible that without a candidate with the right blend of qualities gets it (which is probably McCain of any of them), the turnout for the election will be significantly lower than the Republicans are going to want

But on the Democratic side, if Obama gets it, I think the entire party will really rally behind him with amazing enthusiasm, he's a very likable figure and Democrats REALLY don't want another 4 years of a Republican in the White House..

I think the voter turnout is something the GOP should be worried about. I'm not a fan of Huckabee or Romney. I don't mind Thompson and I like Paul, but I don't forsee them getting the GOP candidacy. As far as the GOP goes though, they're basically all the same. They're typically a bunch of fairly moderate conservatives (some are even fairly liberal) pretending to be middle of the road on issues to get votes. There's nothing really there to get people to go out and vote for other than Paul. And Paul's numbers essentially doubles from what the polls showed, which I figured he would do. Thomspon's numbers were the only thing that surprised me. But even still he's nothing to rally behind.

I think part of the voter turnout for the Democrats was the polarization of the vote... aka Hillary. She gets people to go to the polls who wouldn't normally to vote for her or against her. I don't think the voter turnout would have been as high for the Democrats if Hillary wasn't running. A lot of the turnout can probably be attributed to Hillary's presence. I think the majority of it though is just people fed up with the current government and looking for change.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by motivez

I also really have to wonder whether or not a lot of Republicans switched to the Democratic caucus process in order to vote for either Obama or Edwards to take away form Clinton?

I think a lot of people are voting against Clinton. If Edwards weren't running I think we'd see a much larger gap between Obama and Hillary in Iowa. Edwards is low on cash. If he drops out soon it would change the ball game entirely. His votes would not be evenly distributed between Hillary and Obama. He's getting part of the anybody but Clinton vote as it is.

In SC, Obama is gaining ground on Hillary much like he did in Iowa. The numbers are tracking very well for him there. After his win in Iowa he'll likely steal some of the large black vote from Hillary (50% of Democratic primary voters are black in SC).

Then in NH, Gallup has them tied.. Clinton News Network has Hillary up by a few points. But again 45 days ago Clinton was up by 15-20 points. Now she's struggling to hold on. Once again we're seeing the Iowa pattern of a region being exposed to Hillary and people coming to the polls in droves to vote against her.

This defeat in Iowa is going to hurt Hillary. Much of her voting bloc are voters who want a change and thought Hillary was the best chance to get a Democrat in office. Now people see she may not be the best choice to do that. It's also important to note that Hillary is actually competitive or loses to just about all GOP candidates in national polls. She's strong in the Democratic party, but weak in the national elections.

Based on Rasmussen polls Obama would beat or tie any Republican other than McCain... someone Hillary is losing to as well and by four extra points.

[Thorgrim]

I don't think a 29% tie at second is "voting against her" "in droves"

The youth vote finally turned out...let's see how long it stays up

I think Richardson and Edwards are hoping one of the other trips up and it's a 3-way race again where one of them would have a long-shot...both of them have nothing to do with their time

Clinton gets the free gift of Michigan which should be backed up by the Nevada caucus, that will lessen a possible NH upset...I think she'll have a good chance at looking good in Florida still, as long as she keeps at least a tight second with Obama

[Thorgrim]

Also, the GOP field several thing...will Huckabee's victory finally get him some movement in NH? Will Romney start declining more...will McCain's 15 or so % actually be a victory?

Thompson has said less than 3rd he'll drop out, so looks like he'll back McCain

On Ron Paul, two things:
Pro- Basically in a tie for 3rd (although really 5th) should end all talk of excluding him from any Debate...to do so they'd have to exclude Rudy to be logical, since Ron Paul beat him in votes AND money
Con- Out of some 350,000 caucus voters MANY OF THEM FIRST TIMERS, he only got around 10,000...before I hear excuses...he's been runnning expensive ads and he had a real organization there...with all those new and old voters...winning 1 out of every 35...what's that...3%?

3% of Iowa picked Ron Paul, 25% picked Obama

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Clinton gets the free gift of Michigan which should be backed up by the Nevada caucus, that will lessen a possible NH upset...I think she'll have a good chance at looking good in Florida still, as long as she keeps at least a tight second with Obama

I think NH is wishful thinking at this point.
The pro-Hillary American Research Group showed Hillary up by 9 points in Iowa last week. She ended up losing by 8... a 17 point spread. CNN (The only news organization who reported on the garbage ARG poll) had her up by 2 points last week. A 10 point spread. Those same two polling organizations are currently showing Hillary up by 4 points in NH wwith plenty of time before the primaries to continue the Obama/Clinton trends. At the beginning of last month Hillary was enjoying a double digit lead. As time goes on she's going to keep falling and Obama is going to keep climbing barring some major political snafu.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Also, the GOP field several thing...will Huckabee's victory finally get him some movement in NH? Will Romney start declining more...will McCain's 15 or so % actually be a victory?

Thompson has said less than 3rd he'll drop out, so looks like he'll back McCain

On Ron Paul, two things:
Pro- Basically in a tie for 3rd (although really 5th) should end all talk of excluding him from any Debate...to do so they'd have to exclude Rudy to be logical, since Ron Paul beat him in votes AND money
Con- Out of some 350,000 caucus voters MANY OF THEM FIRST TIMERS, he only got around 10,000...before I hear excuses...he's been runnning expensive ads and he had a real organization there...with all those new and old voters...winning 1 out of every 35...what's that...3%?

3% of Iowa picked Ron Paul, 25% picked Obama

Thompson dropping out was a rumor. He's already said he's sticking with it. But I agree if he drops out he'll support McCain.

Ron Paul needs to do a lot better than this. He's currently 5th in NH, but Iowa was his target state to send a message. He needs to start spending some of that money in NH and getting his numbers up or he's done.