Iowa this week, what are your predictions?

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Thompson dropping out was a rumor. He's already said he's sticking with it. But I agree if he drops out he'll support McCain.

Ron Paul needs to do a lot better than this. He's currently 5th in NH, but Iowa was his target state to send a message. He needs to start spending some of that money in NH and getting his numbers up or he's done.

link?

all I have is:

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser

race42008.com » Blog Archive » Politico: Fred Thompson May Drop Out After Iowa
Thompson may drop out, back McCain - Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen - Politico.com

NH, as I've pointed out numerous times, is the most libertarian state in the Union, if RP can't do well there, his message is simply that unpopular

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Also, the GOP field several thing...will Huckabee's victory finally get him some movement in NH? Will Romney start declining more...will McCain's 15 or so % actually be a victory?

Thompson has said less than 3rd he'll drop out, so looks like he'll back McCain

tonight was a victory for McCain, he hardly competed in the state and with the resources Romney committed with help McCain.

[garbagemanlb]

The GOP is a gigantic joke when someone who doesn't believe in science gets the most votes.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by garbagemanlb

The GOP is a gigantic joke when someone who doesn't believe in science gets the most votes.

it's Iowa, what do you expect.

[ballz2wallz]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Looks like you do better with REPUBLICANS!

Drudge:

RESULTS:
Obama 37.53; Edwards 29.88; Clinton 29.41
Huckabee 34; Romney 25; Thompson 14; McCain 13%; Paul 10%

OBAMA!

I @ Hillary!

Some needed wind in the sails of Fred Thompson's Campaign!

Ron Paul has a voice afterall.

With the exception of Huckabee and Romney switched, my predictions were right! (FYI, I chose what Novak chose)

[lew]

I think Paul did very well, despite some of the enthusaism that a lot of Paul supporters thought he would do - a lot thought he would get 1st and I myself was hoping he'd get third.

Even though he practically did get third, tied with McCain and Thompson, in reality he still got 5th. It was a sad turnout.

But not all that surprising. Iowa is one of Paul's worst states of support. He hasn't won any straw polls there, in contrast to most other states. There are a lot of reasons why Paul didn't do well there, but that doesn't really matter in the end. Paul needs to win......or get out. The excuses time is over. I think NH will be a much better test of Paul's support. If he doesn't do well there, then it's just about over for him.



I'm glad Obama got as wide a lead as he did last night. I like him enough. The turnout for him was astounding.


Grats go to Huckabee for mobilizing those Christian conservatives, but it doesn't look like he'll be going anywhere. Rush Limbaugh has already came out saying he won't support him and prominent other conservatives have as well. He may turn out to be a repeat of Pat Robertson from 1988.


I also have to give props both to Thompson and McCain who did far better than I was expecting them to do. Them being in a virtual tie for third (with Paul) is news. We'll have see how the candidates perform in NH in just a few days.



My ideal Democrat ticket would be Obama and Richardson as VP. Though I doubt that will happen.

[hsmith]

Obama wants change

THE CHANGE IN YOUR POCKET

[lew]

Originally Posted by hsmith

Obama wants change

THE CHANGE IN YOUR POCKET

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

link?

all I have is:

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser

race42008.com » Blog Archive » Politico: Fred Thompson May Drop Out After Iowa
Thompson may drop out, back McCain - Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen - Politico.com

NH, as I've pointed out numerous times, is the most libertarian state in the Union, if RP can't do well there, his message is simply that unpopular

He's been all over the news saying he has never discussed such a thing with an adviser. That story came from politico and he spent all of yesterday denying it.

[JaJae]

Obama victory leaves Clinton scrambling - Mike Allen and Ben Smith - Politico.com
Bad news for Hillary.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) heads out of Iowa as the biggest news story in the world and a force that strategists for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) are uncertain how to stop.

With the New Hampshire primary just four days away, Clinton and her team now must convince voters that choosing Obama would be risky for the party and the country — but they must do it in a way that doesn’t make her look small or desperate.

....

But with the vicious media coverage she now seems likely to face, she could well go 0 for 2 heading into the South Carolina primary, where a strong black vote provides an inviting environment for Obama.

The smart money is on Obama. And he's less polarizing than Hillary. If Hillary gets the nod we'll see a large turnout of anybody but Hillary voters. Nobody leading in the GOP is someone the Republicans will come out in droves to support that I can see. Obama taking Iowa is probably the best thing that could have happened for the Dems in 08. If they put up Hillary they risk throwing away another election like they did in 04.

[hsmith]

For all intents and purposes, McCain, Thompson, and Paul are very much in the race.

I don't see how Paul was "Slaughtered" according to Fox, he came in close to the other two.

Slaughtered by Huckabee, but thats about it.

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Obama victory leaves Clinton scrambling - Mike Allen and Ben Smith - Politico.com
Bad news for Hillary.

They have the perfect way too.

Bill runs around telling people how bad Obama is for the country, Hillary says "omg i can't control him!!!!" and she gets to play nice.

Perfect for her, stay on the "nice" while Bill is on the offensive. She gets to write all the attacks off by him as she has been doing.

[hsmith]

Speculation that she would appoint him to the SCOTUS as well if she were elected.

[Linzyhop]

i think the democratic ticket will be Obama/Edwards. Huckabee won't win any other state. NH will go to McCain, just narrowly beating Romney by 3-5%. Guiliani might win a few states, but I think the GOP race will be between Romney and McCain.

here's hoping McCain can make a full comeback.

[Ardentfrost]

I see Huckabee doing well in more Bible-thumping states... he may not WIN them, but he'll be there taking votes from other candidates. Although, I could see him possibly winning SC, another early primary state that could further propel his chances. If I were a democrat I'd be pulling for Huckabee to better the chances of a democrat president in 2008. I think Huck's one of the least electable guys in the Republican running.

It's hard to tell what's going to happen though. If RP can get the numbers in NH, that may end up being real bad for McCain.

I was holding out hope that RP's numbers were drastically under-estimated in states like Iowa, but I guess the evangelicals still got shit on lockdown there. The big delegate states, though, is where the nomination lies (as Giullani is obviously very aware). Early primary states can get the ball rolling for a candidate, but I'm hoping the RP voters will remain unswayed by criticisms of his performance in Iowa.

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

I see Huckabee doing well in more Bible-thumping states... he may not WIN them, but he'll be there taking votes from other candidates. Although, I could see him possibly winning SC, another early primary state that could further propel his chances. If I were a democrat I'd be pulling for Huckabee to better the chances of a democrat president in 2008. I think Huck's one of the least electable guys in the Republican running.

It's hard to tell what's going to happen though. If RP can get the numbers in NH, that may end up being real bad for McCain.

I was holding out hope that RP's numbers were drastically under-estimated in states like Iowa, but I guess the evangelicals still got shit on lockdown there. The big delegate states, though, is where the nomination lies (as Giullani is obviously very aware). Early primary states can get the ball rolling for a candidate, but I'm hoping the RP voters will remain unswayed by criticisms of his performance in Iowa.

When Limbaugh trashes him, you know there is something to it

[bheld]

Paul's best hope was the independents and he did not get them. This is going to play out in every other state as well. Iowa isn't any more evangelical than any other northern midwestern state.

Independents went largely to the Democratic side and the remainder were probably split on the Republican side between Paul and McCain. This is going to play out in state after state.

Paul can't compete with Obama in drawing off independents and first-time voters. I saw Obama's organization first-hand on the ground and it is impeccably organized.

[motivez]

One of the things I find incredibly ironic is the big-named conservatives refusing to endorse Huckabee

For years and years they've counted on the evangelicals to put their neocons in office, paying lip service to the issues important to them.. now the evangelicals have a chance to put one of their own in office who isn't a neocon, who isn't especially fiscally conservative, and they're up in arms trying to get anyone but him as the nominee

I mean, what did they expect was going to happen when they made so much of their party platform about Christian values.. and then failed to actually accomplish any major legislative changes after getting people out to vote because of them?

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by motivez

One of the things I find incredibly ironic is the big-named conservatives refusing to endorse Huckabee

For years and years they've counted on the evangelicals to put their neocons in office, paying lip service to the issues important to them.. now the evangelicals have a chance to put one of their own in office who isn't a neocon, who isn't especially fiscally conservative, and they're up in arms trying to get anyone but him as the nominee

I mean, what did they expect was going to happen when they made so much of their party platform about Christian values.. and then failed to actually accomplish any major legislative changes after getting people out to vote because of them?

He's unelectable and I think they realize that. Immigration is a big issue for the pundits right now and Huckabee is pretty bad in that arena.

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Also, the GOP field several thing...will Huckabee's victory finally get him some movement in NH? Will Romney start declining more...will McCain's 15 or so % actually be a victory?

Thompson has said less than 3rd he'll drop out, so looks like he'll back McCain

On Ron Paul, two things:
Pro- Basically in a tie for 3rd (although really 5th) should end all talk of excluding him from any Debate...to do so they'd have to exclude Rudy to be logical, since Ron Paul beat him in votes AND money
Con- Out of some 350,000 caucus voters MANY OF THEM FIRST TIMERS, he only got around 10,000...before I hear excuses...he's been runnning expensive ads and he had a real organization there...with all those new and old voters...winning 1 out of every 35...what's that...3%?

3% of Iowa picked Ron Paul, 25% picked Obama

Couple of opinions regarding your query on Paul's numbers.

Iowa is primarily an Evangelical state where Republican children vote the same as their Republican parents.

Paul actually didn't spend much money in Iowa (same as Giuiliani who really skipped the Evangelical state). Based on the fact that he spent very little there, he polled quite well because of his grassroot supporters. 253 votes seperated 3rd, 4th and 5th place.

NH will be different IMO, and so will many other states he receives most of his funds from. California actually leads in that category.

On a side note, I still think he will run as a 3rd party candidate assuming his supporters (like me) demand it.

Fed Up