Iowa this week, what are your predictions?

[motivez]

I don't think it's that he's unelectable tbh, if he's the nominee the establishment will still get behind him and he'll have their organization..

I think it's that he doesn't share the rest of the neocon philosophy or world view, he's an evangelical first, economic populist, etc.. without all the hawkish stuff.

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by bheld

Paul's best hope was the independents and he did not get them.

bheld,

Scroll down and see how Paul did before you make your statements about Paul's independent vote. He WON the independent vote:

Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com

Fed Up

[David Octavius]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

bheld,

Scroll down and see how Paul did before you make your statements about Paul's independent vote. He WON the independent vote:

Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com

Fed Up

I think bheld meant that Paul needed a large independent turn out and win a large portion of that in order to have a shot. The independent turnout for the Republican vote was only 13% and he only won 29% of it (McCain won 23%) while for the Democrats it was 20% and Obama won 41% of that which was a big reason he won.

[WickedLou9]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

bheld,

Scroll down and see how Paul did before you make your statements about Paul's independent vote. He WON the independent vote:

Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com

Fed Up

It just doesn't matter. He won a plurality of the independant vote, and independant only represented 18% of all GOP voters anyway. so you are talking about 29% of 18% which simply isn't near enough to win any primaries. Maybe if he took 50 or 60% of the indepenant votes it would mean something.. but even if he took 100% of independant votes, it would only be 18% of GOP votes casst and probably 7 or 8% in a nationwide general election. Unless he does SIGNIFICANTLY better in NH, I'd say he's done.

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

It just doesn't matter. He won a plurality of the independant vote, and independant only represented 18% of all GOP voters anyway. so you are talking about 29% of 18% which simply isn't near enough to win any primaries. Maybe if he took 50 or 60% of the indepenant votes it would mean something.. but even if he took 100% of independant votes, it would only be 18% of GOP votes casst and probably 7 or 8% in a nationwide general election. Unless he does SIGNIFICANTLY better in NH, I'd say he's done.

I still think he will surprise a few, but the following scenario fits with what I think will happen:

Donklephant » Blog Archive » Ron Paul Wins Independent Vote In Iowa

We'll continue this for another 10 months I hope! This might give America time to wake up!

Best of luck to you and yours though...

Fed Up

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

I still think he will surprise a few, but the following scenario fits with what I think will happen:

Donklephant » Blog Archive » Ron Paul Wins Independent Vote In Iowa

We'll continue this for another 10 months I hope! This might give America time to wake up!

Best of luck to you and yours though...

Fed Up

As long as people keep donating to Paul he'll stick in the race. And I foresee his followers keeping him in. So as others begin to dwell down and drop out they'll be forced to recognize Paul. He'll have the cash on hand and he'll start to make more headlines as the underdog who wins the independent vote.

[Fed Up]

Some more number crunching....from a different perspective...

LewRockwell.com Blog: Crunching the Numbers: Iowa Votes per Campaign Appearance

Fed Up

[RockPusher]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

It just doesn't matter. He won a plurality of the independant vote, and independant only represented 18% of all GOP voters anyway. so you are talking about 29% of 18% which simply isn't near enough to win any primaries. Maybe if he took 50 or 60% of the indepenant votes it would mean something.. but even if he took 100% of independant votes, it would only be 18% of GOP votes casst and probably 7 or 8% in a nationwide general election. Unless he does SIGNIFICANTLY better in NH, I'd say he's done.

The primaries are not decided by popular vote. The primaries are decided by the delegates.

Ron Paul supporters are doing very well at organizing from what I have seen. In my area, I know 6 PCOs who are Ron Paul supporters, and in my precinct, I know that a few new and old caucus goers are committed to voting for Ron Paul delegates.

This seems to be common for my district... so in all likelihood, Ron Paul will get the district, and also likely take the state of WA. Pat Roberts managed to take WA a few years back by similar activism.

Dems dont get to have their votes actually count in WA, so many dems are registering repub here to have an impact on the primaries.

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by JaJae

As long as people keep donating to Paul he'll stick in the race. And I foresee his followers keeping him in. So as others begin to dwell down and drop out they'll be forced to recognize Paul. He'll have the cash on hand and he'll start to make more headlines as the underdog who wins the independent vote.

Yes, 10 more months of fundraising would help the cause. I've only given about $700 so far. I won't give again until he decides to run as a 3rd party candidate. He'll need it more then than he does now....unless his momentum picks up and he wins a few primaries in the next week or so, then I'll donate more.

Wyoming primary is tomorrow. We'll see what shakes.

Anyone think Obama is coming off as arrogant?

Fed Up

[bheld]

Again, Iowa is not an evangelical state. You can bag on Iowa all you want but making it something it isn't to avoid facing reality is ridiculous.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by hsmith

For all intents and purposes, McCain, Thompson, and Paul are very much in the race.

I don't see how Paul was "Slaughtered" according to Fox, he came in close to the other two.

Slaughtered by Huckabee, but thats about it.

CNN said he was slaughtered in this context:
Analysis: Huckabee up, Clinton down heading to Granite State - CNN.com

Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have bowed out gracefully, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Duncan Hunter continue their quests after getting slaughtered in Iowa.

On Friday, two Republicans will rejoin the race. Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani enter the picture after skipping Iowa. Prohibitive early-state favorite Mitt Romney comes to New Hampshire battered and bruised, but still very much alive due to his deep roots in the state and even deeper pockets.

They're making the point that Paul actually campaigned in Iowa while McCain and Rudy did not. They weren't expecting to get votes because they didn't put in the time to compete there. Huckabee may have won Iowa, but he's polling 4th in New Hampshire, down by about 15-20 points to McCain. Let him have his glory for the week, it ends Tuesday.

[JaJae]

Glenn Beck had an interesting take on Huckabee's victory in Iowa. He's home resting and youtubing from his botched surgery that gave him suicidal thoughts.

YouTube Video

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by JaJae

CNN said he was slaughtered in this context:
Analysis: Huckabee up, Clinton down heading to Granite State - CNN.com


They're making the point that Paul actually campaigned in Iowa while McCain and Rudy did not. They weren't expecting to get votes because they didn't put in the time to compete there. Huckabee may have won Iowa, but he's polling 4th in New Hampshire, down by about 15-20 points to McCain. Let him have his glory for the week, it ends Tuesday.

I personally don't think Paul should have campaigned there at all. I don't think it made much of a difference. He would have netted the same not doing it and not had crow on his face.

I don't think it is good where he came in, but I don't think his campaign is over. I am not making excuses, but he should have done better and shouldn't have wasted his time in a dead end state. Iowa isn't "Ron Paul" country, it is "GWB, Kill Terrorists, Fuck Yeah, Freedom isn't Free" land. Take Paul's view on ethanol, that alone makes him a dead starter in the state.

Granted, I felt he would do better. But meh, not much you can do now.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by hsmith

I personally don't think Paul should have campaigned there at all. I don't think it made much of a difference. He would have netted the same not doing it and not had crow on his face.

I don't think it is good where he came in, but I don't think his campaign is over. I am not making excuses, but he should have done better and shouldn't have wasted his time in a dead end state. Iowa isn't "Ron Paul" country, it is "GWB, Kill Terrorists, Fuck Yeah, Freedom isn't Free" land. Take Paul's view on ethanol, that alone makes him a dead starter in the state.

Granted, I felt he would do better. But meh, not much you can do now.

I disagree. I don't think he has crow on his face. I think he needed to beat some of the frontrunners and he needs to show that he's competitive. A failure in Iowa would have hurt him going into New Hampshire.

[lew]

So do you think he was a failure or not?


Some pundits think he failed, others not so much.

[WickedLou9]

I don't think he has failed yet. IMO, NH is his best shot. They generally have political leanings most closely aligned with Pauls. Lets see how he does there before talking about failure.

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by hsmith

I was shocked how close it was between the three

The problem is the Hillary negatives. She is not the second choice of most voters. So I see a battle between Obama and Edwards for the anti-Hillary votes. Obama has the momentum!

As for her support it is nearly locked. You like her or hate her. You want another 4 to 8 years of the Clinton's or not.

And if you have not been told, some of the blind and stupid Hillary defenders are taking their "marching orders" from AFSCME the Government Employees Union!

You can't count on Hillary to pad their payroll and political power.


AFSCME - AFSCME Endorses Hillary Clinton for President

[bheld]

Originally Posted by hsmith

I personally don't think Paul should have campaigned there at all. I don't think it made much of a difference. He would have netted the same not doing it and not had crow on his face.

I don't think it is good where he came in, but I don't think his campaign is over. I am not making excuses, but he should have done better and shouldn't have wasted his time in a dead end state. Iowa isn't "Ron Paul" country, it is "GWB, Kill Terrorists, Fuck Yeah, Freedom isn't Free" land. Take Paul's view on ethanol, that alone makes him a dead starter in the state.

Granted, I felt he would do better. But meh, not much you can do now.

Did you see the numbers? If you think there are so many rednecks out here how come Republicans turned out about half as many people as the Democrats did? Face reality. Ron Paul is running a campaign that is absolutely dependent on a demographic that is being pulled in a ton of different directions, and he is not faring well.

That isn't going to change in New Hampshire and it isn't going to change anywhere else. Your grasp of the conventional political wisdom aside, you don't know what you're talking about.

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by bheld

Did you see the numbers? If you think there are so many rednecks out here how come Republicans turned out about half as many people as the Democrats did? Face reality. Ron Paul is running a campaign that is absolutely dependent on a demographic that is being pulled in a ton of different directions, and he is not faring well.

That isn't going to change in New Hampshire and it isn't going to change anywhere else. Your grasp of the conventional political wisdom aside, you don't know what you're talking about.

and you pretend to know what you are talking about