Iowa this week, what are your predictions?

[hsmith]

probably should be in the election forum, if you want it moved, move it

R:
1) Huckabee
2) Paul
3) Romney

D:
1) Obama
2) Hillary
3) Edwards

Weather from Weather.com: No precipitation with 35F temp.

[Galactic Gigolo]

Edwards has been going up very high in the Iowa polls lately, so maybe we'll get Obama and Edwards in one and two and Hilary at three

I would hope that Paul can get at least third place.

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by Galactic Gigolo

Edwards has been going up very high in the Iowa polls lately, so maybe we'll get Obama and Edwards in one and two and Hilary at three

I would hope that Paul can get at least third place.

Paul will at least pull third, Zogby rates him at 3rd

[Thorgrim]

Since Iowa caucus polls are notoriously inaccurate, and especially in the Democratic party you force people to change their votes if they don't hit 15%

Way too volatile to make any sort of prediction

[RMNIXON]

I think Hillary will lose Iowa and the lamps will be thrown well out of public view. It will be a major blow to the "inevitable" candidate, but not the end by any measure.

Huckabee may also take Iowa, but I think it will be a short lived victory. The party as a whole is not that religious and his poor record on crime and illegal immigration will set in.

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Since Iowa caucus polls are notoriously inaccurate, and especially in the Democratic party you force people to change their votes if they don't hit 15%

Way too volatile to make any sort of prediction

We won't cast stones

this time

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

I think Hillary will lose Iowa and the lamps will be thrown well out of public view. It will be a major blow to the "inevitable" candidate, but not the end by any measure.

Huckabee may also take Iowa, but I think it will be a short lived victory. The party as a whole is not that religious and his poor record on crime and illegal immigration will set in.

I really don't see the appeal of Huckabee at all. I can understand the appeal of McCain, but Huckabee just is a walking closet of skeletons.

I don't see Hillary doing well, too many people dislike her.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by hsmith

I really don't see the appeal of Huckabee at all. I can understand the appeal of McCain, but Huckabee just is a walking closet of skeletons.

I don't see Hillary doing well, too many people dislike her.

Latest Reuters poll, all post holiday, has her leading by 4 points

[zeezil]

This is basically the gist of Huckabee's immigration plan touchback provision:
He would repeal the multi-year baring of illegals to re-enter the U.S. for illegals who register during a 120-day period with Homeland Security and temporarily exit the country (for only a few days, at most). It is also highly likely that many would not even leave the country but would be allowed to go to their nearest consulate on American soil for paperwork.

They would face no penalty if they apply to immigrate back to U.S. (they'd be back in within just days). He would not utilize the current legal immigration law process for immigration to the U.S. but would set up special processing for these ‘special case formerly illegal’ immigrants. He also would reward these lawbreakers (and their law-breaking employers) by allowing the aliens to keep the very jobs they broke into the country and took. He wants them back in quick to slide back into the same jobs they had before their quick exit and return (touchback).

Huckabee will utilize every trick in the book to legalize illegal aliens. He's just a bit more deceptive, shifty and crafty in how he hides the fact that he will provide amnesty. By all means, don't take my word on this if you are skeptical. Dig deep on Huckabee and look at the man behing the curtain. I'm betting you won't really care for what you see.

Huckabee has stated that our economy would collapse without the presence of illegal aliens here. Really? My oh my...how did we manage to survive as a nation and grow our economy these past two centuries and well into the 1970's before the accelerated mass entries of illegal aliens? In 1986, our spineless Congressmen and Senators decided instead of dealing with the problem, they'd just give amnesty to the illegals so their incompetence, corruption, greed and dysfunction could be just swept under the rug. Then in 2007, they tried the same thing, but this time an educated, forceful, awake and fed up public citizenry stopped them in their tracks. Now their tookus is in a sling as they don't know what to do, so basically they are doing what they've been doing over the last 30 years...nothing as far as border security and immigration enforcement.

2008 is a pivitol year, likely even a tipping point, in the history of America. Will we continue to be a strong, sovereign nation ruled by law or will we let the invasion continue until America's slide into anarchy is unstoppable?

We need to elect a leader as President who will protect the value of U.S. citizenship, work for the citizens of America, fiercely protect our sovereignty, stop the march to globlism and the formation of the NAU, and solve our illegal immigration problem. That does not involve granting amnesty to illegal aliens. Huckabee is not your man if you care for those issues. Neither is McCain, Ghuliani of any of the Democrats.

If you have a moment, please visit my new Huckabee blog on the Des Moines newspapers blog site for more information on Huckabee:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=pluckpersona&plckPersonaPage=Pers onaBlog&U=98b33bdee6434a5d9f7e101d5b5ea136

[motivez]

In Iowa:

D:

1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama

R:

1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Paul
5) Grandpa Fred

I just haven't seen enough any evidence from Paul supporters that his ground game has been very impressive.. fundraising, yes.. translating to boots on the ground in the form of likely caucus goers, no.. and if his supporters who follow his every move and keep a close eye on his campaign haven't been touting it, I find it unlikely it exists.

Contrast that with someone like Edwards, who's ground game in the rural areas and smaller precincts has received some attention on various blogs.. and combine it with the negative press he's received about earmarks.. I think some people who were on the fence about him will go for someone they're more sure of.

I really think that Edwards strategy of spending more time in the less populous areas of Iowa could play out, and he's the most favored second choice, so with all the arcane caucus rules that should probably be scrapped that play well with that strategy, I think he has a good shot at squeaking out a win.

[Thorgrim]

I agree with motivez but I switch Romney and Huckabee

These are leanings, not predictions, as I said, predictions are pointless

[Ardentfrost]

I think Huckabee was hoping for an Iowa upset, but will end up being the upset one. He'll pull up the rear in the top three and I'll throw a toss up between Romney and RP for first.

For Dems it's way close. Top three is easy to call, but positions isn't.

[motivez]

Well, Huckabee's lead is dwindling, but I think the conservative Christian crowd is more likely to turn out for him than Romney.. they've made the difference in the past, if they don't turn out in expected numbers, Huckabee could easily fall off to second or third

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

I think Huckabee was hoping for an Iowa upset, but will end up being the upset one. He'll pull up the rear in the top three and I'll throw a toss up between Romney and RP for first.

For Dems it's way close. Top three is easy to call, but positions isn't.

RP first in Iowa?

He's polling at like 5% and caucus goers have to go through a lot of bullshit are overwhelming older voters...older republican voters = not the biggest ron paul fans

[hsmith]

Personally, I don't see a massive turnout for Republicans. Last primary they had 3.9% show up in Iowa. This field of candidates is as lack luster as the previous, if not more.

It is going to come down to a numbers game really.

And motivz: from what i understand and have heard, RP's team is trying the Edwards strategy. Oddly, neither have I heard much on it. Take it for what its worth. I don't see Paul pulling above 3rd, I give him a solid 3rd place.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

Well, Huckabee's lead is dwindling, but I think the conservative Christian crowd is more likely to turn out for him than Romney.. they've made the difference in the past, if they don't turn out in expected numbers, Huckabee could easily fall off to second or third

It will be interesting question...who turns out more?

Those part of a large organizated structure (which traditionally wins across the board)

Those part of the evangelical movement (which traditionally make up the general election get-out-the-vote programs)

[RockPusher]

I predict fraud.

New problems identified with Iowa caucuses

[hsmith]

Originally Posted by RockPusher

I predict fraud.

New problems identified with Iowa caucuses

Well it is an election, isn't it

[Ardentfrost]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

RP first in Iowa?

He's polling at like 5% and caucus goers have to go through a lot of bullshit are overwhelming older voters...older republican voters = not the biggest ron paul fans

I'm thinking the RP crowd may be few within the old Republicans who have voted in the past, but I think new voter turnout will cause some ground to be made up.

I didn't say it was likely he'd get first, I just said I could see him surprising people. Especially with lots of X-votes (X being evangelical, staunch republican, etc..) being split among other candidates.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Ardentfrost

I'm thinking the RP crowd may be few within the old Republicans who have voted in the past, but I think new voter turnout will cause some ground to be made up.

I didn't say it was likely he'd get first, I just said I could see him surprising people. Especially with lots of X-votes (X being evangelical, staunch republican, etc..) being split among other candidates.

People said the same thing about Dean "oh don't worry about falling poll numbers, the young people love him!"

young people didn't even turn out in 2004, and what university wasn't full of Bush haters?