New Hamspshire is rolling up

[JaJae]

Iowa is over I figured we needed a new thread. What are your predictions?

I think McCain is going to take it for the GOP. I think Obama is going to steal an upset victory from Hillary. This will be dangerous for her campaign considering how many black people vote in South Carolina.

Here is an interesting blog regarding Obama/Clinton in New Hampshire:

If the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s 100 Club dinner is any bell weather – Barack Obama will handily win here. When Obama, the dinner’s last speaker, took the stage the crowd surged forward chanting “O-bam-a” and “Fired Up, Ready to Go!” So many people pressed toward the stage that an announcer asked people to “please take their seats for safety concerns.”

By comparison Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for "change for you. The audience, particularly from Obama supporters (they were waving Obama signs) let out a noise that sounded like a thousand people collectively groaning. The second time came a few minutes later when Clinton said: "The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one? The second," and here Clinton was forced to pause as boos from the crowd mixed with cheers from her own supporters. "Is who can we nominate who will go the distance against the Republicans?”

The dinner held in the Hampshire Dome in Milford is the largest political dinner in New Hampshire history, Republican or Democrat. More than 3,000 people attended.

Hillary Booed at NH Democratic Party Dinner - Swampland - TIME

New Hampshire is going to be another big upset for Hillary. She was enjoying 20+ point leads a couple months ago and a 10+ point lead last month. Going in now Zogby's most recent poll has her up by only a few points. She needs the primaries to be today. Time is her enemy. I think the Iowa results are going to impact NH as well. People were skeptical to vote for Obama not knowing if he could win. I think Hillary is going to start losing some those people voting for her only because they thought she was the best shot to beat the GOP.

My final predictions:
Dems - Obama, Clinton, Edwards
GOP - McCain, Romney, Huck

The GOP top two are going to be close. And the Dem top two could also be close. But I think Obama is going to steal the show from Hillary and I think McCain is going to do better than he's polling.

[JaJae]

I think it's also important to note that Hsu was just sentenced to three years in prison for his fraud. More bad press for Hillary. She's lucky she finally decided to give the money back although it probably did help that she asked for the money to be returned. I wonder if the media will report on the fact that initially she flat out refused to return the dirty money and only did so after immense pressure.

[Darko]

I like Barak even though I'm not a Democrat. I despise Hilary.

[Fed Up]

Paulites gotta like this!

LewRockwell.com Blog: Rasmussen: Ron Paul Soars to 14% in NH

If Paul was polling single digits in Iowa and garnered 10%, I predict if he's polling 14% in NH today, and especially because of the protest vote if Faux News doesn't allow Paul to debate on Sunday, Paul could garner close to 20% come Tuesday....but you won't hear his name mentioned on Faux News. Even Allan Colmes is silent.

I predict a very tight race in NH with Huckabee getting less than 10% and excluded from the next Faux news debate.

Fed Up

[SoFlaJDM]

i think hillary will have the kind of numbers obama had in iowa

[7960]

mccain, romney a very close 2nd, then huckabee........ but paul *may* be third

obama, then.................... we can't figure out if we'd rather shit on hillary or edwards so they'll probably tie

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

I predict if he's polling 14% in NH today, and especially because of the protest vote if Faux News doesn't allow Paul to debate on Sunday, Paul could garner close to 20% come Tuesday....but you won't hear his name mentioned on Faux News. Even Allan Colmes is silent.

Good for them...Fox News can go it alone now!

Union Leader - NH Presidential Primary

Manchester – UnionLeader.com has learned that the New Hampshire Republican Party has quit as a co-sponsor of tomorrow night's nationally televised GOP forum on FOX News.

The 8 p.m. event at Saint Anselm College -- the last debate before Tuesday's primary -- had become controversial when FOX refused to include Ron Paul.

More details will be posted shortly.

[RMNIXON]

Election 2008: New Hampshire Democratic Primary

New Hampshire: Obama 37% Clinton 27%


Saturday, January 05, 2008

Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.


Lets be honest about what is happening:

Hillary Clinton is the Democrat Party Candidate, the Liberal Media Candidate, The DC candidate, the Government Employee Union Candidate!


But the damn Voters are doing a John McCain Rebellion just like 2000.

A grass roots revolt!

Will it work?

Can the "anybody but Hillary" voters prevail?

I would still put my money on Clinton. They are dangerous bunch when down.

Obama! Watch your backside!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by Darko

I like Barak even though I'm not a Democrat. I despise Hilary.

You have more friends than you know!

All parties, all Ideologies!

A very Sour Pill is being fed to the public.

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

I would still put my money on Clinton. They are dangerous bunch when down.

Obama! Watch your backside!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm with ya on that one RM...

I made a bet with a buddy for $100 about a year and a half ago that Hillary will win. I'm still confident despite the Iowa results...and for that matter, NH.

Fed Up

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Darko

I like Barak even though I'm not a Democrat. I despise Hilary.

I like Barak as well. Now that Biden is gone he's probably my frontrunner for the Dems. I don't really like any Republicans other than Paul.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Election 2008: New Hampshire Democratic Primary

New Hampshire: Obama 37% Clinton 27%

I think she's done for in NH. Then SC has like 110% black Democratic primary voters. She's in trouble.

[RMNIXON]

Red State Update on Iowa/New Hampshire:

YouTube - Red State Update: Huckabee, Obama Win In Iowa


Mormon Jesus Vs. Regular Jesus!

[6SpeedTA95]

friend of mine IM"d me about an hour ago saying that new poll numbers show obama pulling away?

[6SpeedTA95]

Nevermind looks like Nixon confirmed that.

[Thorgrim]

There are several tracking polls, and most show Obama with a lead, and I think they did a good job in 2004 so...so far I see Obama winning...anything they didn't pick up I would imagine would go in Obama's favor (younger voters, more independents)

The old knowledge was, if Obama came screaming into NH with a big lead and got independents fired up, and Ron Paul could hit 20%, McCain wouldn't stand a chance to be in first place

As much as I hate to say it, it looks like McCain will win regardless of outside events, although I hope Huckabee gets SOME sort of surge from Iowa, or that Romney doesn't collapse in his neighboring state

However, it looks bad for Romney/Huckabee

I'll put my guesses up after I see the last batch of polls released

*Note to mods should I make a new thread when that happens, most likely the night before? Or is this the official one? (2 days)

[6SpeedTA95]

Hey thorg I'm not opposed to a different new hampshire thread but I think if we keep new hampshire in one thread that might be better. You might run it by the other mods though they could have differing opinions.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

There are several tracking polls, and most show Obama with a lead, and I think they did a good job in 2004 so...so far I see Obama winning...anything they didn't pick up I would imagine would go in Obama's favor (younger voters, more independents)

The old knowledge was, if Obama came screaming into NH with a big lead and got independents fired up, and Ron Paul could hit 20%, McCain wouldn't stand a chance to be in first place

As much as I hate to say it, it looks like McCain will win regardless of outside events, although I hope Huckabee gets SOME sort of surge from Iowa, or that Romney doesn't collapse in his neighboring state

However, it looks bad for Romney/Huckabee

I'll put my guesses up after I see the last batch of polls released

*Note to mods should I make a new thread when that happens, most likely the night before? Or is this the official one? (2 days)

Feel free to make a new thread with more current polling figures. I was making guesses before the new polls were released. This wasn't meant to be an *official* thread of any kind. I think a new thread with updated numbers would be in the best interest of the primary/forum.

Edit: Just read 6Speed's post. Either way works for me. If you want you can make a new OP and I'll edit mine out.

[RMNIXON]

On Schedule Desperation Gender Card:

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton criticizes rival Barack Obama's record on abortion rights in a mailing sent to New Hampshire voters.


The mailer says that seven times during his time in the Illinois state Senate, Obama declined to take a position on abortion bills, while Clinton has been a defender of abortion rights.

During his eight years in the legislature, Obama cast a number of votes on abortion and received a 100 percent rating from the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council for his support of abortion rights, family planning services and health insurance coverage for female contraceptives. He voted against requiring medical care for aborted fetuses who survive, a vote that especially riled abortion opponents.

He also joined other state Democrats in voting present on some bills.
The mailing comes amid division within the Clinton campaign over how negative to go against Obama after his victory Thursday in the Iowa caucuses. The campaign has made a decision to hold off on any television advertising, positive or negative, until after a nationally televised debate Saturday night.

Obama also has been criticized by the political arm of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which has endorsed Clinton. Seven international vice presidents sent a letter protesting the "wholesale assault on one of the great friends of our union."

"Supposedly, we are involved in this primary because we're concerned about access to the next Democratic president," the signers argued. "So why would we want to develop a hostile relationship with the man who could be that next president?"

During the Iowa campaign, the Clinton campaign criticized Obama's position on health care in Iowa. But she is taking a different approach in New Hampshire.
"A woman's right to choose," the mailing says on the front, then flips to the back, "demands a leader who will stand up and protect it."

It says Clinton has a record of fighting "far-right Republicans" to defend abortion rights, while Obama has been "unwilling to take a stand on choice."

"Seven times he had the opportunity to stand up against Republican anti-choice legislation in the Illinois state Senate," it says. "Seven times he voted present—not yes or no, but present. Being there is not enough to protect choice.

"On January 8 you have a choice," it closes. "Vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, Tuesday, Jan. 8."
The mailer says "Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President" and has a return address of her office in Manchester. The Clinton campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Clinton Criticizes Obama in NH Mailer

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Feel free to make a new thread with more current polling figures. I was making guesses before the new polls were released.

I take it "any" member of the board can make that thread?