Post-Caucus general election poll in Iowa: Obama may have a chance after all

[Thorgrim]

Obama certainly is popular in state's he has campaigned in...will he win in a landslide all across the country?

I mean, who honestly thought the most liked Republican in Iowa right now (he leads the others by even more) by their voters...would be down so much?

I've always talked about a lot of problems getting Obama elected, but if he can pull these kinds of numbers after campaigning...this may be a 55+ landslide election not seen by the democrats in over 40 years

[motivez]

I don't understand why people thought he couldn't beat McCain?

He can harp on his experience all he wants, all Obama has to do is maintain his positive, get a little more substantive in debates and speeches, and go after McCain for his "Experience in continuing the way Washington has worked" since he became a Senator..

It's hard for someone who'll be 80 by the end of their second term to convince people he's going to be able to change much of anything

[JaJae]

Obama is the most electable candidate out there right now. I've been saying it for some time. If the Democrats want the White House they should elect Obama. No conservative can touch him.

[Thorgrim]

I think your both wrong, talk to your male relatives, especially those who voted for Bush in 2004, there's a reason he's STILL LOSING in Ohio, when the generic democratic race is 20+ Democrati...technically he should be winning by 20+, fine give him a break make it 10+ because McCain is regarded above average, but Obama losing Ohio by 6?

Not only that, but Hillary does better in Ohio

Quick points:

1) McCain can run as the candidate for changing the GOP (look at his campaign finance attempts, he's worked with Kennedy on education and immigration...often to the scorn of the conservative base) AND run on experience
2) Obama is not only young, but he's avoided federal politics until when? As Rudy McRomney would say, he's never run a business, never ran a city, or a state...it's not even that McCain crushes him on foreign policy experience but also executiv experience as McCain has been a leader in the Senate on military matters
3) There is still the whole 9/11 thing, and McCain is a white former PoW and Obama is a black man with enough muslim background smears to start a magazine

More objectively and importantly:
McCain has a lot of pull in the southwest because he's a powerhouse in Arizona and his attempts to solve immigration, electorally that is a killer because all the neighboring states that know him and like him well: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico

Those were the big "southwestern sweep" the Dems have been planning since 2005, McCain completely blocks it off, unless it's a landslide election he'll hold them, not to mention Arizone, which if Romney/Huckabee/Rudy wins, they will have a reasonable shot at winning

Also, McCain scores huge leads in Virginia, I guess the Jim Webb southern independents can't vote for a 40something black guy over a white former PoW...that was another state that was in play

Florida continues to grow more Republican, which is irrelevant to the matchups in general, but relevant here to the fact that the Dems will likely have to look elsewhere for an Electoral College victory

So if Obama get's all the Kerry states, AND we add Iowa, he is at 258 I believe...even if somehow a southern state like Missouri (where McCain has less connections) went for him, he is still short

Every other state is 10+,15+,20+ Bush in 2004, not going to go for Obama unless there is a landslide

So electorally he is fucked and has to put all his hope in Ohio, which is a horrible position for a candidate to be in...what is worse is that he is continually beaten by McCain there for the past year in polling