NH Primary: Last polls show wide and growing leads, maybe a new dynamic? Let's see

[Thorgrim]

First several of the polling companies final polls as the voting has just about started:

Democrats

ARG: 40% Obama, 31% Clinton
Reuters: 42% Obama, 29% Clinton
Rasmussen: 37% Obama, 30% Clinton
CNN: 39% Obama, 30% Clinton

Republicans

ARG: 31% McCain, 24% Romney
Reuters: 36% McCain, 27% Romney
Rasmussen: 32% McCain, 31% Romney
CNN: 31% McCain. 26% Romney

---------

With the rise continuing in basically every poll, it would truely be a shock if McCain and Obama did not win today, it would be nearly impossible for someone other named persons win

Several questions that will be answered tonight:

1) Does the youth vote that showed up at the caucus transfer over to primaries?

Will this be a record-breaking primary...if so does this show the rise of the youth vote that will be there on November, or was it all a flash in the pan

2) Will the Democrats maintain a 2-1 voter ratio in primary votes?

People were clearly more interested in Iowa on who was going to win the Democratic nomination, independents specifically, will this whole true in a state where it's easier to vote and all the candidates are involved...

3) If 1 or 2 or both are true...did the polls get it right or do we have to re-construct our polling methodology to keep up with the youth vote and the overwhelming Democratic vote?

NH was a red state in 2000, Iowa was a red state in 2004...the GOP field is up for grabs, there is no reason for people to ignore it, infact...with all the news of Clinton "imploding" one would think an independent would rather vote in the GOP election as it might make a difference as the leads are smaller and anyone can win the nomination

Polling may have to be redone...as they screen out many first-time voters during the weighing process, and take a small number of young voters, also, they assume a generally even number of left of center voters vs right of center voters...if the former group is expanding, then everything is off

Rasmussen just had a poll out today showing Barack Obama beating Rudy Giuliani by 10 points, outside the margin of error...now if that's under-representing an expanding Democratic-leaning vote...he might temporarily have a 20+ lead

Anyway, the real voting has started, buckle your seatbelts, let's see if tonight is major history

[Thorgrim]

Also, I'd like to note that if Hillary gets only 29%, and is close or even beaten by Edwards...and Obama gets 40%+...the closer to 50 he gets...the more likely Clinton will be pressured to drop out to save face for 2016 or *sigh* 2012

Another note, will Obama so drain the independent votes from the GOP's primary that McCain will not win...Rasmussen has it as a 1 point race as of TODAY

[tbone]

As of noon, Obama and McCain are leading in NH. Many news sources are reporting Obama the man to beat and are talking as if he has the nomination tied up already.

[JaJae]

The GOP debates and rhetoric has already switched from how to beat Hillary to how to beat Obama. Hillary is becoming a thing of the past. If Hillary loses by double digits in New Hampshire it's going to be a huge blow to her campaign that she probably won't be able to recover from.

After the ABC debates Hillary had a couple hundred press waiting for her. Obama had something like 3500 if I recall correctly. Hillary blew them off and went straight to her campaign bus. She's been very calculating and I believe she's starting to lose her confidence. I haven't seen her do any interviews that weren't complete fluff interviews, I haven't even seen her do her usual soft ball interviews. She seems to be avoiding the press and people unless her campaign sets up the terms. It's as if she's keeping her head down to prevent herself from screwing up. She's gonna tuck herself away and allow her campaign to use her upsetting defeat in Iowa to get a better turnout in New Hampshire. She needs a huge turnout if she doesn't want to get completely blown away.

Expect Hillary supporters to be all over CNN today in a last ditch effort to get her campaign out there. Obama should be the rockstar of the other outlets while questioning Hillary's impeding defeat and how her campaign has gone terribly wrong.

[JaJae]

Also I expect Bill Clinton to be working overtime. He'll be at her side as much as possible and whoring himself to the media whenever Hillary isn't on live cameras. He is going to be influential to her.

[JaJae]

Some interesting links:

Clinton Braces for Second Loss;
Union, Senators May Back Obama
By JACKIE CALMES
January 8, 2008; Page A1

NASHUA, N.H. -- With Barack Obama strongly favored -- even within Hillary Clinton's camp -- to win a second straight victory in today's New Hampshire Democratic primary, both rivals are looking to the next battle grounds. But his momentum threatens to swamp her in the next two states as well and shows signs of fracturing her support in the party establishment.

Already some Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could. Several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers about endorsing the freshman Illinois senator over his more experienced colleague.

Clinton Braces for Second Loss; Union, Senators May Back Obama - WSJ.com

Hillary's attack dog..
ABC News

[Scrum]

While I would like to see Hilary out of the race, i'm not sure if it would be better for her to exit sooner or later.

She makes a nice target for the "conservatives" to attack. She seems to be a lightning rod and it's got to be better for Obama to have her running for as long as possible.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

2) Will the Democrats maintain a 2-1 voter ratio in primary votes?

People were clearly more interested in Iowa on who was going to win the Democratic nomination, independents specifically, will this whole true in a state where it's easier to vote and all the candidates are involved...

Drudge Report is headlining:
EPIC TURNOUT FOR DEMS -- We Are Out of Ballots!

Good news for Obama!

[JaJae]

First votes are counted:


First 10 votes, Hillary has none of them.

[Linzyhop]

i wonder if more NHers will vote Obama or McCain...

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Drudge Report is headlining:
EPIC TURNOUT FOR DEMS -- We Are Out of Ballots!

Good news for Obama!

bad news for republicans

[Publius]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

bad news for republicans

not really. get those people out there again in November and then it might be.

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Publius

not really. get those people out there again in November and then it might be.

i think so... if he keeps winning and getting party support, while the gop is going back and forth, it makes him stronger imo

[motivez]

Originally Posted by Publius

not really. get those people out there again in November and then it might be.

Like I said earlier, I think it really speaks to excitement about the candidates and a desire for something different than what we've had to endure these last 8 years

[Thorgrim]

To follow up on JaJae:

New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that "turnout among primary voters today is 'absolutely huge' -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham."

"The ballot strain seems to be on Democratic ballots, which suggests that the undeclared voters are breaking for the Democratic primary."

Political Radar: New Hampshire Turnout 'Absolutely Huge'

[Thorgrim]

Just got word of a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll (I've been away the past 8 hours) where Romney is LEADING by four points in their final poll from last night and the day before that:



If Obama so takes away from the independent vote that Romney wins...that'll be huge on two fronts

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

To follow up on JaJae:



Political Radar: New Hampshire Turnout 'Absolutely Huge'

this is HUUUGE!! doocy would agree:

YouTube Video

raised a muslim

fair and balanced

[Thorgrim]

850,000 registered voters in the state


Just so everyone knows when we're looking at turnout later

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Just got word of a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll (I've been away the past 8 hours) where Romney is LEADING by four points in their final poll from last night and the day before that:



If Obama so takes away from the independent vote that Romney wins...that'll be huge on two fronts

They're extremely unreliable though.