Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, Obama concedes, now what?

Thorgrim · 01-08-2008, 10:52 PM

CNN, MSNBC, AP, even Fox News have all called it for Hillary

More importantly, Obama concedes

Has Hillary won the nomination with this victory? She goes from a 15 point underdog to a WIN

Even in Iowa, she won Democrats by a healthy margin, Obama gets the independent vote

Now look at this:
FairVote - Primaries: Open and Closed

A list of closed primary states (only registered Democrats can vote), a huge number...now if Hillary wins all of those (which it looks like she's on the path to do) and some of the open primary states like New Hampshire...she'll easily get enough votes for the nomination

So speak out, write what you think a Hillary win means for THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

(Not the Democratic Party, or America, or whatever rant you want to make because you hate Hillary Clinton)

01-08-2008, 10:58 PM

Thats pretty interesting and totally shocking. It may be the end of Obama. He better dominate South Carolina to have a shot.

Thorgrim · 01-08-2008, 11:04 PM

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

Thats pretty interesting and totally shocking. It may be the end of Obama. He better dominate South Carolina to have a shot.

Polls have Obama dominating...but 18 days after this huge victory...who knows what will happen in Michigan and Nevada

Also, the average of polls was 8+ for Obama...no polling organization got the primary right...I'm not sure exactly what this means for polling

Polls were remarkably accurate for...decades...in the general election, is this the year it doesn't because of the cell phone boom?

01-08-2008, 11:06 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Polls have Obama dominating...but 18 days after this huge victory...who knows what will happen in Michigan and Nevada

Also, the average of polls was 8+ for Obama...no polling organization got the primary right...I'm not sure exactly what this means for polling

Polls were remarkably accurate for...decades...in the general election, is this the year it doesn't because of the cell phone boom?

Polls have had their issues in years past too. But 8 points is substantial!

In fact to be off by 8 points with a reasonable sample size the polls almost had to be rigged to reflect the wanted results. Pretty amazing from a statistical standpoint.

You're right Michigan and Nevada could be nuts. But this win for Hillary, assuming she actually wins, makes her the front runner once again IMO.

Thorgrim · 01-08-2008, 11:36 PM

Obama was going to win by 8%, Hillary is up by 3%, so the polls were off by 11%!

Reuters/Zogby had Obama up by 13! So they were off by 17%!!

Yeah polls aren't meant to be dead on, they are meant to give it within the MoE, I think they've been great on that on every election I've seen from 2000-2006

But polls off by 17 points...

John King on CNN just said "every poll in SC...isn't even worth looking at"

motivez · 01-09-2008, 12:02 AM

I think the Independents having such big support for McCain really made the difference for Obama in NH, along with the gear shifting over the last few days in the Clinton camp.

If Edwards stays in it until the convention, splitting the potential Obama vote, I think we're in store for nominee-Clinton unless something major happens.. especially in closed states where Obama wont get the huge boost from Independents that he did in Iowa.. and if they continue to break for McCain as much as they have been in NH in the open states, it's going to be very bad for him.

It's like a perfect storm of shit that can go wrong for Obama.

I think he HAS to become more substantive in his speeches, so far all I really see from him is a lot of kumbaya bullshit, generic rhetoric and not specific details on what exactly he wants to see done, and how he plans to do it..

I think he can be 'inexperienced' and do well as President, but he has to be able to give people specific reasons they should vote for him, specific policy stuff, and so forth.. and not so much like a motivational speaker with a generic message of hope

JaJae · 01-09-2008, 12:10 AM

Big win for Hillary. I wonder what effect this will have on GOP fundraising and turnout.

Thorgrim · 01-09-2008, 12:24 AM

Originally Posted by JaJae

Big win for Hillary. I wonder what effect this will have on GOP fundraising and turnout.

She's been the front-runner for awhile and it hasn't meant anything...

Every candidate in every debate...and on the campaign trail has almost centered their campaign around two things "I'm the closest thing to Ronald Reagan" and "I can beat Hillary"

It's not a new issue or a surprise...people have seen Hillary as the probable candidate for the past year, and people yawned and kept their wallets closed

The big donors are old...older republicans have a lot of bones to pick with McCain...and he's the only one that I would think would have a surge of funding...

When I say surge, I mean like a $30-40 million surge

thewise1 · 01-09-2008, 01:55 AM

I don't understand why it really matters. Obama and Hillary are so close to being the same animal that the difference to someone like me is negligible

JaJae · 01-09-2008, 02:02 AM

Originally Posted by thewise1

I don't understand why it really matters. Obama and Hillary are so close to being the same animal that the difference to someone like me is negligible

One has a little more Marxism in their Wheaties. Obama is willing to work with businesses and his opponents. Hillary wants to tax them all to hell and spend the money on mandated government programs.

Thorgrim · 01-09-2008, 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by JaJae

One has a little more Marxism in their Wheaties. Obama is willing to work with businesses and his opponents. Hillary wants to tax them all to hell and spend the money on mandated government programs.

strange, fox news thinks Obama is much more liberal, and Bill Bennett, a man I believe you respect, was on CNN saying Obama was much more liberal and in the general election he'd have problems with his liberalism as compared to Hillary

Thorgrim · 01-09-2008, 02:15 AM

Originally Posted by thewise1

I don't understand why it really matters. Obama and Hillary are so close to being the same animal that the difference to someone like me is negligible

This thread is specifically about affects on the primary, not america, the democratic party, the price of tea in china, etc

thewise1 · 01-09-2008, 02:42 AM

Originally Posted by JaJae

One has a little more Marxism in their Wheaties. Obama is willing to work with businesses and his opponents. Hillary wants to tax them all to hell and spend the money on mandated government programs.

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe I'm just butthurt because no one wanted my guy.

But they really seem almost the same to me.