Michigan Primary (1/15) Open Discussion

[Thorgrim]

Final Results with 100% Reporting:

Republicans

Mitt Romney 337,847 38.9%
John McCain 257,521 29.7
Mike Huckabee 139,699 16.1
Ron Paul 54,434 6.3
Fred D. Thompson 32,135 3.7
Rudolph W. Giuliani 24,706 2.8
Uncommitted 17,971 2.1
Duncan Hunter 2,823 0.3
Tom Tancredo 458 0.1
Others 354 0.0

Democrats

Hillary Rodham Clinton 328,151 55.4%
Uncommitted 236,723 39.9
Dennis J. Kucinich 21,708 3.7
Christopher J. Dodd 3,853 0.6
Mike Gravel 2,363 0.4


Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics


Final Result Notes:
-Uncommitted did not hit 40%, and exit polls show if Edwards and Obama had been on the Ballot, Hillary would have won with 45%...however take this whole thing with a grain of salt considering Michigan news outlets have been saying the Dem Primary was pointless for months, so those who turned out are not indicitive of the Democratic voter
-McCain did not hit 30%, and Romney won by almost 10 points, again defying the polls and going outside the MoE that had McCain winning (several did not, but some did)
-Related point, Rasmussen, ARG, and Zogby were all off beyond the MoE, the closest pollster: Mason-Dixon had Romney winning by 8...however they had Obama winning NH by 2pts, which actually is in the MoE...however before I call them the Gods of polling, I'll note general election and primary voting are two entirely different beasts
-Ron Paul stuck at 6%, however he doubled Rudy's #s

[Thorgrim]

with 8% in...Romney's lead jumps to 7%...Clinton stays in her 60s (no pun intended)

[JaJae]

Needs more uncommitted

[Thorgrim]

Mitt Romney wins (As Does Hillary)

MSNBC...that was quick

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Mitt Romney wins (As Does Hillary)

MSNBC...that was quick

Didn't take long at all. Clinton was a no-brainer. This was a big win for Romney. Now each of the big three Republicans have a win under their belts. It's gonna drag on and on.

[Darko]

I'm confused maybe I'm out of the loop in this one... Where is Obama and Edwards?

[Darko]

Romney is killing with total delegates. He didn't even need first place in Michigan to still be winning. However dumb pundits will tell you he has to place first in every primary to still be in the race.

[Darko]

Looks like Paul is going to beat Thompson and Guiliani even after all the fake hype from Faux News about Thompson last debate.

[Thorgrim]

Yeah People can finally say Paul beat Rudy in a big state...although I'm sure Rudy fans will say "oh it's only a half-counted state"

It'd be absolutely hilarious if Paul beat Rudy in Florida

BTW Obama, Edwards, Dodd, Biden etc all pulled out of Michigan when Clinton had a 30 point lead and every candidate announced they wouldn't campaign there as a pledge to NH, IA, etc



Romney is around 40% over McCain's 30%...I wonder if a solid 10-pt win will really boost Romney unlike Huckabee who got no boost...in fact a slide since his IA win

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Yeah People can finally say Paul beat Rudy in a big state...although I'm sure Rudy fans will say "oh it's only a half-counted state"

It'd be absolutely hilarious if Paul beat Rudy in Florida

BTW Obama, Edwards, Dodd, Biden etc all pulled out of Michigan when Clinton had a 30 point lead and every candidate announced they wouldn't campaign there as a pledge to NH, IA, etc



Romney is around 40% over McCain's 30%...I wonder if a solid 10-pt win will really boost Romney unlike Huckabee who got no boost...in fact a slide since his IA win

if paul gets more than rudy in florida, he minus well drop out

[Donkey®]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

if paul gets more than rudy in florida, he minus well drop out

When should Paul drop out?

[Ardentfrost]

He won't drop out til all the delegates are counted. He's got enough money to float him

[Grouch]

wait what? I've been out the last few days and not being paying attention to the elections. uhhhhh where was obama?

[Grouch]

nevermind i googled it

[AVengeance]

The media has done a great job of pushing the populace to do exactly what they want. They've gotten the masses to vote for different GOP candidates in just about every state. This is done intentionally to show NO CONFIDENCE and NO MANDATE with a particular GOP candidate. This is to show everyone that the GOP is in shambles, and the only logical choice is to vote for which ever democrat we end up with after the primaries. Ron Paul is a fairly constant force, but not enough of a force. McCain, Romney, Huckabee all have a different subset of the conservatives on their side. Giuliani is being pushed as the winner of NY and FL, and should do well there, as long as the media keeps beating that drum "you WILL vote for Giuliani, you WILL vote for Giuliani..." Imainge what the GOP field would look like if borg Nine of Eleven did win Florida and NY, but lost to various others in other states (Huck in IL, McCain in MO, etc.).
The only true conservative candidate is Ron Paul, and not enough true conservatives know enough about him to vote for him over whoever the mass media is TELLING them to vote for in their state.

How sad.

[AVengeance]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

When should Paul drop out?

After Super Tuesday. It wouldn't make sense to bow out before then. Paul has enough money right now to make it at least that far. Rudy and McCain are running on fumes, and Rudy doesn't have any significant numbers ANYWHERE yet, so the media is forced to talk less about him and more about Huck and others.

[Scrum]

Originally Posted by AVengeance

The media has done a great job of pushing the populace to do exactly what they want. They've gotten the masses to vote for different GOP candidates in just about every state. This is done intentionally to show NO CONFIDENCE and NO MANDATE with a particular GOP candidate. This is to show everyone that the GOP is in shambles, and the only logical choice is to vote for which ever democrat we end up with after the primaries. Ron Paul is a fairly constant force, but not enough of a force. McCain, Romney, Huckabee all have a different subset of the conservatives on their side. Giuliani is being pushed as the winner of NY and FL, and should do well there, as long as the media keeps beating that drum "you WILL vote for Giuliani, you WILL vote for Giuliani..." Imainge what the GOP field would look like if borg Nine of Eleven did win Florida and NY, but lost to various others in other states (Huck in IL, McCain in MO, etc.).
The only true conservative candidate is Ron Paul, and not enough true conservatives know enough about him to vote for him over whoever the mass media is TELLING them to vote for in their state.

How sad.

It's the GOP's fault that their party is in shambles, not the medias.

[David Octavius]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

BTW Obama, Edwards, Dodd, Biden etc all pulled out of Michigan when Clinton had a 30 point lead and every candidate announced they wouldn't campaign there as a pledge to NH, IA, etc

They pulled out because she had a 30 point lead? No, they pulled out because their delegates don't count in the overall total for nomination:

Dems punish Michigan for early primary - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com

To go by what you say, Obama should of pulled out of the election in general months ago with national polls showing a huge Hillary lead or when polls showed hillary taking Iowa. It was a meaningless contest but Hillary stayed in, I guess to make it look like she is more of a front runner and legitimate candidate than she really is

Nevertheless, Saturday's vote further diminishes the significance of Michigan's Democratic primary. All the major Democratic candidates have already agreed not to campaign in either Michigan or Florida because the states violated party rules. And in Michigan, most of the major candidates won't even be on the ballot.

Democratic candidates John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have withdrawn their names from the ballot to satisfy Iowa and New Hampshire, which were unhappy Michigan was challenging their leadoff status on the primary calendar.


That leaves Hillary Rodham Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and "uncommitted," as the choices on the Democratic ballot in Michigan.

[Thorgrim]

why don't they tell voters in FL to vote uncommitted if this is just a mirror of MI?

How come they aren't fighting in the courts to get their names off the ballot in Florida?

Because Michigan is inbetween NH and NV and can be written off, why risk it when you're down 30pts? Florida can not be written off as it's the last one before Super Tuesday

[David Octavius]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

why don't they tell voters in FL to vote uncommitted if this is just a mirror of MI?

How come they aren't fighting in the courts to get their names off the ballot in Florida?

Because Michigan is inbetween NH and NV and can be written off, why risk it when you're down 30pts? Florida can not be written off as it's the last one before Super Tuesday

Maybe because they have campaigns to run and don't have time for silly court battles?

Yes they had to pullout of MI to appease AI and NH but that had nothing to do with a 30pt lead, there was no campaigning there. Plus the registered democrats in that area already knew it was a meaningless vote and since their candidates are not on the ballot anyway why voice support in an opion poll? Of course the Hillary supporters would since she was still on there, so the polls you are reading was not the full picture and neither were the results. Maybe she would of won anyway but I assure you it would not of been by 30 percent