South Carolina Democratic Primary 1/26/08

[Thorgrim]

Polls close at around 7pm EST

Two latest polls show two different political situations:

ARG - Polling Data up to the 25th, previous numbers in ()
Obama 39 (45)
Clinton 36 (36)
Edwards 22 (12)

Reuters/Zogby - Polling Data up to 25th, previous numbers in ()
Obama 41 (38)
Clinton 26 (25)
Edwards 19 (21)

ARG would seem to be saying Obama is losing his lead, Reuters saying he is gaining some...3pt race or 15pt race? Both polls show Edwards support dropping, but that's not a universal, in fact there are 14 polls that are recent:

At this hour, subject to possible late releases by competing firms, here is the pollster line-up, ranked from largest Obama advantage to smallest:

1. Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead by 20.
2. Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 15.
3. SurveyUSA has Obama ahead by 13.
4. Zogby has Obama ahead by 13.
5. Insider Advantage has Obama ahead by 10.
6. Ron Lester & Associates has Obama ahead by 10.
7. Mason Dixon has Obama ahead by 8.
8. Clemson University has Obama ahead by 7.
9. American Research Group has Obama ahead by 3.

Some are saying this race will be closer than expected, like NH, others are saying this will be like Iowa, with Obama finishing a strong first and Edwards actually taking second (Ofcourse Edwards campaign thinks it has a good shot at winning)

There is talk that the real number to look at here is Obama's share of the white vote, since SC has a very low hispanic population. If Obama wins and it were to rely very heavily on black voters, he runs the risk of being the candidate that gets a bloc of voters, African Americans. While in states like Florida, in just 3 days whites would break for Hillary and Obama would face a distant second and again dominate amongst blacks...going into February 5th that would put him in a distinct disadvantage except for Georgia. After that, running as the candidate of hope that can only seal the deal with black voters, he'd be marginalized and effectively given the nomination to Hillary.

Also, how important is this election considering SC and FL have many cultural and demographic differences and voters in FL will only see the results of SC for 2 days before voting...and Hillary already has a big lead, unlike her position going into Iowa where her lead had collapsed by caucus night and there were 5 days for voters to ponder.

[JaJae]

stickie for the day...

[JaJae]

Obama needs to take SC or he's gonna be really hurt on Super Tuesday. This is a must win state for him.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Obama needs to take SC or he's gonna be really hurt on Super Tuesday. This is a must win state for him.

IMO, Obama can't win if he loses SC...Hillary would win Florida, she's already up in all the ST states except Illinois and maybe Georgia

Anyway, I think if we went by current projections, Hillary is set to win something like 1300 delegates by the night of Feb 5th, and Obama would have around 700, that's almost half...with Edwards around 300...even combined they'd be behind Hillary, and after a strong Tuesday performance I wouldn't imagine she'd have problems in White and Hispanic states afterwards...I'd imagine wins in Ohio/Pennsylvania/Texas...

Unless she loses to Edwards and loses the single white female vote...I still think she has the nomination by virtue of of her "implosion" and recovery, everyone focusing on Obama...and her NH comeback...Nevada win...he had his shot and he didn't move the voters in Florida/California/etc yet...no reason to think they didn't hear about his big win in Iowa almost a month ago, I don't see why an expected victory in SC would mean anything when voters already know and they still give Hillary 15-20+

[Thorgrim]

Here are some numbers to look at before we get the final vote tallies...

(Keep in mind, South Carolina is the LAST state in the union where you would see "Democratic excitement, Republican depression" Because the SC GOP takes their primary very seriously and it's the heart of the modern GOP...you wouldn't look for excited GOP turnout in 1994 in Rhode Island)

However, in 2004 roughly 900,000 people voted for Bush, roughly 650,000 for Kerry (17 point blowout by Bush)

2004 FEC results

In the 2008 GOP Primary, 450,000 voted...almost 100,000 less than 2000...in the 2004 Democratic Primary, the record was 290,000...so if they hit 300,000 they'll be breaking every record while the GOP will be declining (in yet another state...as has been the story)

[Thorgrim]

Obama got 80% of the black vote, and 20% of the white vote

However, he beat expectations, so that'll shake up things...his big-margin win might cause the media to ignore the story the Clinton's were hoping they'd put out, that Obama get's only black voters to win since NH, which certainly seems like the case now if you saw the NV and SC results

African Americans alone gave him 40% of SC's votes (they were 55% of the voters)...obviously without that he'd have placed 3rd, not 1st, and Clinton would have won...she won White Women by a healthy margin, and in the upcoming states they make up the bulk of voters in the primaries

No other state in the next 10 days or so has anything close to that kind of african american voter bloc except Georgia