Feb 3 poll shows Hillary dominating Hispanic vote

Thorgrim · 02-04-2008, 10:52 PM

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 4 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton leads Illinois Senator Barack Obama 60% to 18% in California, 77% to 15% in New York, and 52% to 26% in Illinois, based on the results of a new poll conducted by New American Dimensions.
The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, two days before three of the five largest Hispanic states hold primaries on Super Tuesday. Combined, these three states account for nearly 45% of all Hispanics.
Clinton performed much better with Hispanic immigrants than Hispanics born in the United States. She outpolled Obama 70% to 12% among immigrants compared to 53% to 27% among U.S. born Hispanics. Two-thirds of those interviewed were immigrants, reflective of the U.S. Hispanic voting age population.

Hispanics don't give a fuck, they'll tell you they're voting for Clinton, they don't care about "looking politically correct"

Whites, on the other hand, are all worried about sounding racist

Looks more and more like we'll have another Bradley effect, whites will change their votes in the booth, hispanics will stick with Hillary, and Obama will just have the black vote

He could still win...young people and new voters could turn out in record numbers

But by what that poll and past primaries have shown, if 2004 democrats voted, Hillary would win in a landslide in this nomination

But who knows, maybe white guilt is stronger in California than it is in Florida and New Hampshire...maybe hispanics won't turn out...a million things could happen

But it doesn't look like Obama is going to get his "unity" vote tommorow, he may even win, but it'll be ugly

motivez · 02-05-2008, 12:14 AM

I don't really like seeing this stuff break down along racial lines tbh

Galactic Gigolo · 02-05-2008, 01:39 AM

Yes, white guilt is what has lead people to support Obama.

Come on.

garbagemanlb · 02-05-2008, 03:24 AM

Originally Posted by Galactic Gigolo

Yes, white guilt is what has lead people to support Obama.

Come on.

Dude, that is the ONLY reason a white person could vote for Obama. Otherwise they'd choose Hillary, right?

JaJae · 02-05-2008, 03:37 AM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

But who knows, maybe white guilt is stronger in California than it is in Florida and New Hampshire...maybe hispanics won't turn out...a million things could happen

That comes off as fairly racist. There are other reasons to vote for a black man.

Thorgrim · 02-05-2008, 07:58 AM

The Bradley effect is real, and I hope as someone in the psychology field you've taken more than a glance at it...

Ofcourse I don't have to tell you the statistics with juries sending blacks who kill whites to be executed...you know about it and I've seen it first hand

However, when a pollster calls up John Q and tells him to choice between a black person and a white person, especially if the caller is black, that person has a significant chance of lying/temporarily changing their minds...I don't know which is worse

We see racial effects everywhere...why were the polls so accurate in IA and yet so wrong in NH? Race

In IA, those same whites who lied about race because they were embarrassed found themselves in an open forum, most likely with a minority of some sort present, and having to announce their vote to a crowd...very nerve wracking, that same psychological need that they lie to a stupid pollster and say "Obama!" kicked in and they said "Obama!" the polls and voting matched up...the Des Moines Register said 7 points, and he won by 7 points

In New Hampshire, people got the privacy of their booths, and realized they didn't have to lie to any pollster to share with someone a fear that they were racist, they could vote for any non-black person they wanted

What do you know, an 18 point swing...

Here we have more data, hispanics overwhelming choosing Hillary, what possible logical reason do Hispanics have to favor Hillary so much...Obama has been getting endorsements galore from the Hispanic community in all those states...and he won the hispanics in his senate race, they all know him

And for the record, I am getting a little worn down by you throwing around the word racist just as much as any ultra-left politically correct person I know

JaJae · 02-05-2008, 11:26 AM

Your first post was telling. The fact that you would attribute an Obama win to a racial difference is absolutely wrong. If Obama wins today it will be because he ran a strong campaign on a messaged of united hope and because he is not Hillary Clinton. The fact that you completely negated to mention the top two reasons people are voting for him and ran right down to the bottom of the list to the racial crap and used it as the largest quantifier is disgusting and pathetic. It is possible for a black man to run for president and win on his own merit. If Obama beats Hillary today it will not be because he's black, despite any amount of racial spin Hillary supporters wish to put on it.

Thorgrim · 02-05-2008, 11:44 AM

Originally Posted by JaJae

Your first post was telling. The fact that you would attribute an Obama win to a racial difference is absolutely wrong. If Obama wins today it will be because he ran a strong campaign on a messaged of united hope and because he is not Hillary Clinton. The fact that you completely negated to mention the top two reasons people are voting for him and ran right down to the bottom of the list to the racial crap and used it as the largest quantifier is disgusting and pathetic. It is possible for a black man to run for president and win on his own merit. If Obama beats Hillary today it will not be because he's black, despite any amount of racial spin Hillary supporters wish to put on it.

i have facts and numbers, you have your hillary-hatred

"because she's not hillary clinton"
wrong, 80% would be satisfied with Hillary

"racial crap"
I'm sorry overwhelming supermajorities of Hispanics favor the white candidate over the black candidate, yet another minority group, blacks, give supermajorities to Obama...that IS breaking down on racial lines

I never said Obama would win today because he is black...i merely pointed out well know bradley effects, and the well known problem of white guilt

But this isn't the first voting anymore...people have seen Obama can stand up...in a democratic primary, perhaps the racial tensions will ease today

If Obama wins today, it should (we'll look at exit polls) have nothing to do with him being black...the winning part anwyay

To ignore documented factors is simply illogical

JaJae · 02-05-2008, 04:31 PM

I'd love to see your numbers that prove if Obama wins it's because he's black. Anyone can take polls and numbers to derive their own biases from them. It doesn't make it true.

Thorgrim · 02-05-2008, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

I'd love to see your numbers that prove if Obama wins it's because he's black. Anyone can take polls and numbers to derive their own biases from them. It doesn't make it true.

Obama can not win the popular vote because he is black, but he can win delegates because he is black

If Obama is getting supermajorities of black voters nationwide, and delegates are assigned by district...it's very complicated, let's wait until the results and I can show you