Super Tuesday is TODAY, what's going to happen and what did happen?

[Thorgrim]

As a starting point, here is someone who has followed SuperTuesday much closer than me, but an Obama supporter...trying to be objective:

THE FOLLOWING GRAPH IS A GUESSTIMATE BY ONE MAN


Here are the states, primary/caucus, how many delegates, and then time the polls close:


Georgia primary 87 7pm
Connecticut primary 48 8pm
Delaware primary 15 8pm
Alabama primary 52 8pm
Illinois primary 153 8pm
Massachusetts primary 93 8pm
Missouri primary 72 8pm
New Jersey primary 107 8pm
Oklahoma primary 38 8pm
Tennessee primary 68 8pm
Arkansas primary 35 8:30pm
Arizona primary 56 9pm
Minnesota caucus 72 9pm
New Mexico caucus 26 9pm
New York primary 232 9pm
North Dakota caucus 13 9pm
Kansas caucus 32 9:30pm
Utah primary 23 10pm
Idaho caucus 18 10:30pm
California primary 370 11pm
Alaska caucus 13 11:15pm
Colorado caucus 55 11:30pm

Here is some basic info if you are watching:

Hillary's base states are New York (Ofcourse), New Jersey, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arkansas

Obama's base states are Illinois and Georgia

States that are most likely to determine who wins:
California, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Missouri

Obama or Clinton seem to have inherent advantages in other states, but nothing concrete, and a win by either wouldn't really upset the balance, and some other states haven't even been polled

Factors:
Hillary Clinton's base of support is reportedly: White Women, Hispanics, Gays, Older votes, and Health Care advocates (among others)

Barack Obama's base of support is reportedly: African-Americans, Young voters, New voters, indepedents and anti-Iraq War advocates (among others)

The question ofcourse, is which groups will show up...and how loyal will they be?

If the new/young voters don't show up, and Iraq doens't dominate voters minds...while Clinton's coalition sticks together, looks to be a good 100+ delegate advantage for Clinton...with big wins at her base and a sweep of states like California (ofcourse, if it's larger, it may be a victory Obama realizes he can't overcome)

If there is a big new/young voter turnout, Iraq is on their mind, Hillary's hispanic bloc shakes under recent hispanic endorsements to Obama, and white women either don't turn out or don't stay as the pillar of Hillary's voters...looks to be a good 50+ delegate advantage for Obama, which would definately swing as a huge Obama victory that I can't see Clinton surviving

So, we shall see...around 830-900 we should have a decent idea of what is going on...around midnight the picture should be mostly defined, by 1-2am we'll know who won and who lost, in the media's eyes

[Linzyhop]

and for republicans.........?

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Linzyhop

and for republicans.........?

You're free to make your own thread...the only states being looked at are California for the GOP, romney is up romney is down...pretty boring story and most everyone seems to think today is the day McCain locks it up (for the most part)...if he doesn't, then it's such a huge shift from the polls that any big analysis would be out the window

[7960]

Originally Posted by Linzyhop

and for republicans.........?

oh you're FUNNY!!

[SoFlaJDM]

i voted for obama, but i think that analysis is a little too generous for obama. Although it seems like the vast majority of dems are satisfied with either candidate, they just seem more comfortable with the experience of billary

[garbagemanlb]

Come on Obama!

[Linzyhop]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

You're free to make your own thread...the only states being looked at are California for the GOP, romney is up romney is down...pretty boring story and most everyone seems to think today is the day McCain locks it up (for the most part)...if he doesn't, then it's such a huge shift from the polls that any big analysis would be out the window

i didn't want to make one, i was just wondering where it was, but no matter.

[Donkey®]

Originally Posted by Linzyhop

and for republicans.........?

They are irrelevant.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by garbagemanlb

Come on Obama!

I agree. Once again time is against Obama. Clinton doesn't pick up support, she loses support time and time again. The more time Obama has to campaign and the more the public is exposed to Hillary the more likely he is to win.

[bheld]

gobama

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by JaJae

I agree. Once again time is against Obama. Clinton doesn't pick up support, she loses support time and time again. The more time Obama has to campaign and the more the public is exposed to Hillary the more likely he is to win.

People the past few days have been talking about Obama rallies with empty seats where it was supposed to be packed as it was in early-mid January

One example:


So I don't know about him blazing a trail...we'll see today

[7960]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

They are irrelevant.

Only to the ignorant.

[WickedLou9]

I am going to make a CRAZY prediction about the GOP race. McCain will win. I know, I know, call me crazy. I just have a feeling.

[A_C_E]

GObama

I did my small part to help him in New York, though it's not going to help much. People in my home state love Hillary to death.

The only prediction I'll make is that the number of delegates they each win today will be separated by 60 or less. This is not going to be anywhere near over after today, which I don't necessarily think is a good thing if McCain locks it up today also. I don't think taking this to the Convention while McCain is mobilizing support for 3 and a half months is a positive

[Donkey®]

Originally Posted by 7960

Only to the ignorant.

Can you do anything but call people names? I can play too....then you'll get infractions...i'll get infractions...probably banned. Then you'll go fucking cry like usual.

[7960]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

Can you do anything but call people names? I can play too....then you'll get infractions...i'll get infractions...probably banned. Then you'll go fucking cry like usual.

The red-only and purple states are also having (R) primaries or caucuses today.



I didn't call you any names. What I said was anyone who ignores half of what's happening politically in this country today is ignorant.

[Donkey®]

Originally Posted by 7960

The red-only and purple states are also having (R) primaries or caucuses today.



I didn't call you any names. What I said was anyone who ignores half of what's happening politically in this country today is ignorant.

Thanks for the geography lesson. Nobody cares. The Republicans can run Mother Teresa in EVERY state and they'd still be irrelevant because their chances in the general election are ZERO.

[Publius]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

Thanks for the geography lesson. Nobody cares. The Republicans can run Mother Teresa in EVERY state and they'd still be irrelevant because their chances in the general election are ZERO.

Even though I don't want to see any of the Republicans in the field be elected much more than I want to see any of the Democrats, I'm going to take a special joy in it if the Republican candidate wins in November. Just because of you.

[7960]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

Thanks for the geography lesson. Nobody cares. The Republicans can run Mother Teresa in EVERY state and they'd still be irrelevant because their chances in the general election are ZERO.

I see a few names besides clinton and obama here

Voting Begins in a Grab for Delegates, and an Edge - New York Times

And I figured you could use the geography lesson. From reading your posts I'd say you didn't know anyone else was running.

Originally Posted by Publius

Even though I don't want to see any of the Republicans in the field be elected much more than I want to see any of the Democrats, I'm going to take a special joy in it if the Republican candidate wins in November. Just because of you.