Five reasons Hillary should be worried

[kinggovernor]

Five reasons Hillary should be worried
By: Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
February 6, 2008 06:12 PM EST

Hillary Clinton survived a Super Tuesday scare. But there are five big reasons the former first lady should be spooked by the current trajectory of the campaign.

Longtime Clinton friends say she recognizes the peril in careening between near-death primary night experiences and small-bore victories.

Although the friends did not have details, they believe she may go ahead with the campaign shake-up she had been planning just before her surprise victory in New Hampshire.

Her team is girding for trench warfare, telling reporters that the nomination will not be decided until at least the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, if then.

Clinton aides told reporters on a conference call today that the Democratic Party’s complex delegate allocation rules mean that neither candidate is likely to take a sizable lead in the foreseeable future.

While Clinton’s campaign gloated about having the most total delegates for the cycle so far, her staff nevertheless recognizes that Super Tuesday was no triumph. Here’s why:

1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.

And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states.

Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.

With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.
Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.
At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone.

One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.

This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.

All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths.

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.

His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.
4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing.

He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.

Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win.

So it couldn’t be any clearer as to why the supposedly inevitable candidacy is anything but — even when she’s supposedly winning.

Five reasons Hillary should be worried - Politico.com Print View

its like the Super Bowl, the Giants (Obama) were down 7-3 after the half. But in reality it was the Patriots (Hillary) losing because of how dominant they used to be and were expected to do.

[Donkey®]

There's only one reason Hillary should be worried: Obama.

[JaJae]

It's important to note that her $13 million may or may not include the $5million she donated to her own campaign at the end of January. She's hurting for cash and she's hurting to keep her support.

This is an excellent write-up. Thanks for the post. It confirmed everything I have been writing...

[Donkey®]

Originally Posted by JaJae

This is an excellent write-up. Thanks for the post. It confirmed everything I have been writing...

You mean about how she cries or something else?

[A_C_E]

GObama

He is hot, she is not. And it's comforting that, by all means, he could win the next 7 consecutive states and pile up a decent delegate lead, coupled with boatloads of momentum going in to Ohio and PA.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

You mean about how she cries or something else?

Yesterday Obama gave her something to really cry about...

[Stylerod]

On NPR they were talking about how Tuesday was supposed to be the day Hillary officially becomes the Democratic candidate for president. The Clinton juggernaut was supposed to be unstoppable. Now she is out of money and lost a lot more states than she ever would have imagined.

They even used the Patriots/Giants example. The Clintons are the dynasty that wins everything they try (and playing dirty when need be - My comment, not NPR's). Obama is the team that no one ever expected to be able to make it to the "Big Game" but is well on his way to it.

[Publius]

I would like to note that I am GEEEEENIUS. I said I'd be surprised if the difference in delegates at the end of super tuesday would be much more than ten. Depending on who you ask, it ranges from 5 to 14.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by Publius

I would like to note that I am GEEEEENIUS. I said I'd be surprised if the difference in delegates at the end of super tuesday would be much more than ten. Depending on who you ask, it ranges from 5 to 14.

which I believe is a huge victory for Obama

[garbagemanlb]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

which I believe is a huge victory for Obama

Agreed.

[Publius]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

which I believe is a huge victory for Obama

I don't think it's quite as big as the Obama fans feel it is yet, it really depends on whether or not this motivates Clinton's base in the upcoming states. Now, if Obama can string together a few more victories in the next week I think it will definitely be huge.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Publius

I don't think it's quite as big as the Obama fans feel it is yet, it really depends on whether or not this motivates Clinton's base in the upcoming states. Now, if Obama can string together a few more victories in the next week I think it will definitely be huge.

It's motivated Obama's base though and he has the momentum.



They sent out an e-mail yesterday saying Hillary donated $5million and they needed to match it. They did it in about a day..

[thewise1]

Originally Posted by JaJae

It's motivated Obama's base though and he has the momentum.



They sent out an e-mail yesterday saying Hillary donated $5million and they needed to match it. They did it in about a day..

I got that email as well (I am on a lot of candidates mailing lists) and noted in the email that they said they had $3 million and needed $5 million more. Then I saw the picture that claims they have $7.5 million

Someone is trying to motivate their supporters to be the person who pushes it over the top

[Stylerod]

Originally Posted by JaJae

It's motivated Obama's base though and he has the momentum.



They sent out an e-mail yesterday saying Hillary donated $5million and they needed to match it. They did it in about a day..

And looking at that, doesn't politics suck? They raised 7 million in a day for what? So a candidate can fly around the country, talk and make commercials? What a waste of money.

[Stylerod]

Hillary was asked this morning by the press if her staff, that is no longer getting paid, still had health care coverage and she wouldn't answer it!

Oh hell. This is too funny.....

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by Stylerod

Hillary was asked this morning by the press if her staff, that is no longer getting paid, still had health care coverage and she wouldn't answer it!

Oh hell. This is too funny.....

oh lol

[thewise1]

Originally Posted by Stylerod

Hillary was asked this morning by the press if her staff, that is no longer getting paid, still had health care coverage and she wouldn't answer it!

Oh hell. This is too funny.....

[motivez]

I remember reading something awhile back stating that the Democratic candidates had been paying for health insurance for paid campaign employees, whereas the Republican candidates were not

Also, Hillary I believe paid her campaign workers slightly more than anyone else, followed by Obama

[Stylerod]

Originally Posted by motivez

I remember reading something awhile back stating that the Democratic candidates had been paying for health insurance for paid campaign employees, whereas the Republican candidates were not

Also, Hillary I believe paid her campaign workers slightly more than anyone else, followed by Obama

Yeah, but now Hillary's people are making $0 and probably aren't getting health insurance. And by making $0 they can't even go out and buy their own! Oh the ironing.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Stylerod

Hillary was asked this morning by the press if her staff, that is no longer getting paid, still had health care coverage and she wouldn't answer it!

Oh hell. This is too funny.....

Oh snap. I guess her campaign staff isn't "deserving" of health care.