The Three possible Democratic Scenarios

[Thorgrim]

From progressive activist Chris Bowers:

If Obama wins non-Michigan and Florida pledged delegates by more than 100, then he will win the nomination. From that point, he will be able to dictate the rules of the convention via the credentials committee, and win.

If Clinton wins non-Michigan and Florida pledged delegates even by 1, then she will win the nomination. From that point, she will be able to seal the deal via super delegates and the credentials committee.

If, after the primaries and caucuses finish on June 7th, the pledged delegate totals are somewhere in between those two ranges, then we will probably have a brokered convention. Or, at least, there will be some sort of brokered pre-convention, involving the credentials committee and negotiations with Howard Dean.

I basically agree...if it gets to the point where the campaigns realize:

1) Obama will lead the pledged delegate count by 100-120+
2) Hillary will lead the pledged delegate count by 1

The other side will be extremely pressured to give up, and I believe they will, if it's something in the middle, it will just make each campaign continue down the primaries hoping their math is wrong/right until late May

If, after the last primary, we are still in that inbetween ground, there is a real problem, and I personally believe Obama should take the VP slot in that situation

If it's #1 then Obama should insist the FL and MI delegates are seated, and he'll still be in the lead, at that point, he has the most delegates, all the legal issues of seating are solved, he should get the nomination, absent something ridiculous

If it's #2 then Clinton should insist (see above) and with the most delegates, etc...she should get the nomination, absent something ridiculous...

If Clinton wins by a very small margin, I believe she'll be forced to take Obama to "heal the wounds" as VP

[thewise1]

gee, thorgrim thinks obama should take the VP spot


stop the presses, folks

[Wakefield]

I doubt Clinton will agree to take Obama has her VP, he would overshadow her presidency.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Wakefield

I doubt Clinton will agree to take Obama has her VP, he would overshadow her presidency.

Like Gore overshadowed Bill?

Please, the President dictates what the VP does...he has no power, this isn't like Cheney where Bush kowtows to the VP or heeds his advice

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by Wakefield

I doubt Clinton will agree to take Obama has her VP, he would overshadow her presidency.

haven't seen you in forever

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Like Gore overshadowed Bill?

Please, the President dictates what the VP does...he has no power, this isn't like Cheney where Bush kowtows to the VP or heeds his advice

but it the reason why the potential team of Hillary and Webb will never happen.