Newt thinks Obama can win it!

RMNIXON · 02-07-2008, 08:39 PM

Last night the Reagan Conservative who knows how to win elections said he was very impressed with the Obama campaign and the way it has captured momentum. He predicted that unless the Clinton camp can come up with clear contrasts on a number of issues in the coming weeks she may lose this nomination.

I agree!

The personal attacks have backfired. There is not enough policy difference and way too much of a personality gap (Obama > Clinton). In spite of all the spin about how good the Hillary did on Tuesday the fact remains that this Obama surge was unexpected and could last all the way to the convention.

And if the party plans some underhanded move against Obama I predict it will be a disaster!

garbagemanlb · 02-07-2008, 08:54 PM

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

Last night the Reagan Conservative who knows how to win elections said he was very impressed with the Obama campaign and the way it has captured momentum. He predicted that unless the Clinton camp can come up with clear contrasts on a number of issues in the coming weeks she may lose this nomination.

I agree!

The personal attacks have backfired. There is not enough policy difference and way too much of a personality gap (Obama > Clinton). In spite of all the spin about how good the Hillary did on Tuesday the fact remains that this Obama surge was unexpected and could last all the way to the convention.

And if the party plans some underhanded move against Obama I predict it will be a disaster!

The final obstacle I see is getting the women to see reality about Clinton and her electability issues. 65% of the Democratic primary voters are women, and that has definitely helped Clinton. With this infusion of cash and Hillary running on fumes in terms of fundraising, I hope we get enough of the older women to see the light and jump ship.

I'm definitely excited about the upcoming caucuses...Obama usually dominates those.

Yes we can!

RMNIXON · 02-07-2008, 09:02 PM

One unexpected outcome in California I heard about. While Clinton got the majority of liberal white women, Obama picked up a large majority of hispanics and other minority voters.

They don't seem to like her all that much!

Thorgrim · 02-07-2008, 10:35 PM

Originally Posted by garbagemanlb

The final obstacle I see is getting the women to see reality about Clinton and her electability issues. 65% of the Democratic primary voters are women, and that has definitely helped Clinton. With this infusion of cash and Hillary running on fumes in terms of fundraising, I hope we get enough of the older women to see the light and jump ship.

I'm definitely excited about the upcoming caucuses...Obama usually dominates those.

Yes we can!

You know, for all the problems you see with Clinton...she's polling even with McCain, just like Obama is...

If he really was that great, why isn't he even beating McCain...and why has his numbers been like this for months...not changing at all...and this before he's smeared by the GOP

Hillary should be getting 30% against McCain, and Obama should be getting 60%...aint so...they both get like 45% every average

JaJae · 02-07-2008, 10:39 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

You know, for all the problems you see with Clinton...she's polling even with McCain, just like Obama is...

If he really was that great, why isn't he even beating McCain...and why has his numbers been like this for months...not changing at all...and this before he's smeared by the GOP

Hillary should be getting 30% against McCain, and Obama should be getting 60%...aint so...they both get like 45% every average

Nothing in this post is true. Obama consistently polls better than Hillary vs McCain (who unlike Obama has been losing to him in most recent polls).
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - National Polls

And with Hillary's campaign going broke it might even get worse for her.

Thorgrim · 02-07-2008, 11:46 PM

He's had some good polling, i've had my eyes on the delegates being counted

but ive been using real clear politics average, and if you look in the back you'll see polls where Obama is losing/winning to McCain, same for Hillary, overall I've been checking the RCP average of McCain matchups and I'm tell you if you do the math, I consistently saw Obama and Clinton narrowly trailing or narrowly beating McCain in the averages

As of right now, with Obama's good polling, he's at 47.5% vs. McCain, Hillary is at 45.3%...2%, real impressive...and he's averaging, according to RCP, a 3% lead...again...real impressive...both matchups are within the MoE

From the momentum you hear in the media, it should be Obama 60% McCain 40%

Dukakis was beating Bush by 20%, and Obama can't get better early numbers than Dukakis? How sad...Bush, like McCain, was the moderate foreign policy expert, and he even had the advantage of coming from a POPULAR white house

If this is the peak of Obama-mania, might as well call him President McCain if he's lucky enough to face Obama

JaJae · 02-07-2008, 11:59 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

He's had some good polling, i've had my eyes on the delegates being counted

but ive been using real clear politics average, and if you look in the back you'll see polls where Obama is losing/winning to McCain, same for Hillary, overall I've been checking the RCP average of McCain matchups and I'm tell you if you do the math, I consistently saw Obama and Clinton narrowly trailing or narrowly beating McCain in the averages

As of right now, with Obama's good polling, he's at 47.5% vs. McCain, Hillary is at 45.3%...2%, real impressive...and he's averaging, according to RCP, a 3% lead...again...real impressive...both matchups are within the MoE

From the momentum you hear in the media, it should be Obama 60% McCain 40%

Dukakis was beating Bush by 20%, and Obama can't get better early numbers than Dukakis? How sad...Bush, like McCain, was the moderate foreign policy expert, and he even had the advantage of coming from a POPULAR white house

If this is the peak of Obama-mania, might as well call him President McCain if he's lucky enough to face Obama

I'm dizzy from all this spin. When looking at polls, there's a reason they report both sides of the argument. You can't just throw it away because you don't like it or because you wish to use it as evidence for a fallacious argument.

The fact is that Hillary has more people willing to vote against her than Obama, thus the spread between Obama and Hillary is 4.7% against McCain. On top of that Hillary loses, Obama wins.

Thorgrim · 02-08-2008, 12:19 AM

Originally Posted by JaJae

I'm dizzy from all this spin. When looking at polls, there's a reason they report both sides of the argument. You can't just throw it away because you don't like it or because you wish to use it as evidence for a fallacious argument.

The fact is that Hillary has more people willing to vote against her than Obama, thus the spread between Obama and Hillary is 4.7% against McCain. On top of that Hillary loses, Obama wins.

You can't go by the MoE and say "they lose, they win" especially considering all the undecideds...

On RCP averages, they currently average McCain getting a whole 2.5% more support if Hillary runs than Obama...wow!!!!

I generally follow Rasmussen, even though I believe some of his polls are wrong, he's a conservative pollster and he skews a lot of opinion polls to favor right wingers

But, he's pretty good at his craft

His latest polls show:
McCain beats Obama by 6 points
McCain beats Hillary by 8 points

That's not a real electability argument for Obama, who, like I said, considering ALL the problems McCain is having with conservatives and even moderates, and ALL the gushing everyone has for Obama...Obama should have a HUGE lead...early polling is well known to give huge leads, its in the fall that things narrow

If I bought into that BS stuff when they show those huge crowds (who do a piss-pour job of turning out to vote in primaries), I'd be supporting Obama on electability grounds, but he simply sucks as a general election candidate

The media narrative, which you have followed like it was gospel, has said Obama is this huge star who attracts SO MANY people, and McCain is dealing with a fractured party...that equals a huge Obama lead...actually he's losing by 6 points

The other narrative is that things couldn't be worse for Clinton, she's basically in the worst shape ever, and everyone hates her, ontop of that, if she were to ever face off again McCain, the GOP would unite like you've never seen...that means a huge McCain lead...actually he's only beating her by 8 points

Two COMPLETELY different ways the story is supposed to play out, yet only a 2 point different on Rasmussen, and on RCP (of McCain's support)

It doesn't make sense, unless...those stories are all crap

Truth is...people really aren't that open about Obama, and they're just waiting for negative 527s to launch all sorts of outrageous attacks

Truth is...people really don't care about all that negative shit people like you say about Hillary, it sounds so similiar to other stuff, it's all white noise...everyone already knows, they've accepted her with that label, they're even willing to elect her with it

RMNIXON · 02-08-2008, 05:52 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

I'm dizzy from all this spin. When looking at polls, there's a reason they report both sides of the argument. You can't just throw it away because you don't like it or because you wish to use it as evidence for a fallacious argument.

The fact is that Hillary has more people willing to vote against her than Obama, thus the spread between Obama and Hillary is 4.7% against McCain. On top of that Hillary loses, Obama wins.

Damn Calculating vote on the war!