Iraq Crisis, Panic, and Fear!

[RMNIXON]

From The Times

February 11, 2008


Al-Qaeda leaders admit: 'We are in crisis. There is panic and fear'


Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces an “extraordinary crisis”. Last year's mass defection of ordinary Sunnis from al-Qaeda to the US military “created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight”. The terrorist group's security structure suffered “total collapse”.

These are the words not of al-Qaeda's enemies but of one of its own leaders in Anbar province — once the group's stronghold. They were set down last summer in a 39-page letter seized during a US raid on an al-Qaeda base near Samarra in November.

The US military released extracts from that letter yesterday along with a second seized in another November raid that is almost as startling.
That second document is a bitter 16-page testament written last October by a local al-Qaeda leader near Balad, north of Baghdad. “I am Abu-Tariq, emir of the al-Layin and al-Mashahdah sector,” the author begins. He goes on to describe how his force of 600 shrank to fewer than 20.

“We were mistreated, cheated and betrayed by some of our brothers,” he says. “Those people were nothing but hypocrites, liars and traitors and were waiting for the right moment to switch sides with whoever pays them most.”

Assuming the two documents are authentic — and the US military insists that they are — they provide a rare insight into an organisation thrown into turmoil by the rise of the Awakening movement. More than 80,000 Sunnis have joined the tribal groups of “concerned local citizens” [CLCs] that have helped to eject al-Qaeda from swaths of western and northern Iraq, including much of Baghdad.

US intelligence officials cautioned, however, that the documents were snapshots of two small areas and that al-Qaeda was far from a spent force.

They said that while the number of car bombs had fallen over the past year, the organisation had doubled its attacks on CLC members since October. More than 20 people were killed last night when a suicide car bomber attacked a checkpoint near Balad.

Al-Qaeda gunmen stormed a compound of an “Awakening” group in Iraq's northern Nineveh province yesterday, the US military said. Among those killed in the fighting were 10 suspected Al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters.

The Anbar letter conceded that the “crusaders” — Americans — had gained the upper hand by persuading ordinary Sunnis that al-Qaeda was responsible for their suffering and by exploiting their poverty to entice them into the security forces. Al-Qaeda's “Islamic State of Iraq is faced with an extraordinary crisis, especially in al-Anbar”, the unnamed emir admitted.

In an apparent reference to al-Qaeda's brutal tactics, he said of the Americans and their Sunni allies: “We helped them to unite against us . . . The Americans and the apostates launched their campaigns against us and we found ourselves in a circle not being able to move, organise or conduct our operations.”

Al-Qaeda leaders admit: 'We are in crisis. There is panic and fear' - Times Online


Now before anyone gets upset I should caution that these documents are just a "snapshot" by admission and could be just more Bush Neocon plants or Cherry Picked Intelligence out to fool us all! I really don't know and it is up to each to decide what they want to believe and why. Who needs actual proof of anything these days?

What is more certain in my mind is that the media in general can be counted on to ignor as much good news from Iraq as possible in the coming months as part of their unbaised election coverage and not rooting for anyone in particular. But I post this anyway.

I thought you would like to know.

[WickedLou9]

The biggest threat in Iraq is not from Al queda. It's from Suni vs Shia violence. So called sectarian violence. Sure it's great that foreign terror groups are not doing well but they have never been the major concern.

[bheld]

So we're finally starting to make headway on a self-inflicted problem. Awesome. Maybe now we can get back to the original goals of finding WMDs, spreading the warming glow of Democracy's shining light glowing for the world to see and warming hearts all over the world, and...eh, uh, terrists! Iraq 9/11 Iraq 9/11 Iraq 9/11 Iraq 9/11!

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

The biggest threat in Iraq is not from Al queda. It's from Suni vs Shia violence. So called sectarian violence. Sure it's great that foreign terror groups are not doing well but they have never been the major concern.

But the goal of these Al Qaeda groups in Iraq is to stir up Suni and Shia violence.

[motivez]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

But the goal of these Al Qaeda groups in Iraq is to stir up Suni and Shia violence.

Yeah, but even if Al Qaeda wasn't there.. the Sunni and Shi'ite populations would still be going at it.

That isn't to say Al Qaeda's attacks didn't make things worse, they certainly did.. but this is, like bheld said, a problem we caused for ourselves by going in without being willing to commit the needed number of troops from the get-go like Shinseki wanted.

[RMNIXON]

I admit we vastly underestimated the internal political problems, and were very slow to react when we did.

Now that the Surge is working McCain likes to remind people that he was for it long before the Bush Whitehouse.

What do you think of that?

[bheld]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

I admit we vastly underestimated the internal political problems, and were very slow to react when we did.

Now that the Surge is working McCain likes to remind people that he was for it long before the Bush Whitehouse.

What do you think of that?

Working? What were the goals? What are the benchmarks for success?

If this is working I sure as hell don't want to see failure.

[Donkey®]

YaY! Al Queda in Iraq is almost non-existent in Iraq...kind of like before we got there.

[Donkey®]

O, then there's this...

Originally Posted by article

U.S. deficient against Muslim insurgents, study says

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. military is seriously deficient in meeting "the threat of Islamist insurgencies," says a Pentagon-commissioned study released Monday.

The Rand Corp. report characterizes "U.S. military intervention and occupation in the Muslim world" as "at best inadequate, at worst counter-productive, and, on the whole, infeasible." The Pentagon asked the nonprofit research organization to review strategies to thwart insurgents.

The United States should instead focus its priorities on improving "civil governance" and building "local security forces," according to the report, referring to those steps as "capabilities that have been lacking in Iraq and Afghanistan."

"Violent extremism in the Muslim world is the gravest national security threat the United States faces," said David C. Gompert, the report's lead author and a senior fellow at Rand. "Because this threat is likely to persist and could grow, it is important to understand the United States is currently not capable of adequately addressing the challenge."

The Pentagon did not respond to calls Monday from CNN seeking comment.

The report is titled "War by Other Means: Building Complete and Balanced Capabilities for Counterinsurgency."

It focused on the increase of about 30,000 U.S. troops in Iraq over the past year -- the "surge" -- which supporters have credited for a decrease in insurgent attacks.

But "it would be a profound mistake to conclude from [the troop increase] that all the United States needs is more military force to defeat Islamist insurgencies," Gompert said. "One need only contemplate the precarious condition of Pakistan to realize the limitations of U.S. military power and the peril of relying upon it."

The study notes that U.S. military interventions can be risky as well as costly because of the tenacity of jihadists, "infected by religious extremism." It says massive military interventions against insurgencies usually fail.

Looking at some 90 conflicts since World War II, the report concludes that establishing "representative, competent and honest" local government is the way to go.

"Foreign forces cannot substitute for effective local governments, and they can even weaken their legitimacy," said co-author John Gordon. The study says the United States would have more success if the insurgency were defused early and it must develop ways to interpret early "indicators and warnings."

Along with building "effective and legitimate local governments," the report says the United States must do a better job of organizing, training and equipping local security forces, and gathering and sharing information.

To beef up counterinsurgency efforts, local governments must develop "job training and placement of ex-combatants; an efficient and fair justice system, including laws, courts and prisons; and accessible mass lower education," it says.

"When it comes to building these and other civil capabilities abroad, the United States is alarmingly weak," Gompert said. "To fix this problem, the federal government will need a dramatic increase in civilian capabilities, new organizational arrangements, and more flexible personnel policies."

More money in foreign aid, more civilian professionals and help from U.S. allies and international groups are needed, the report said.

Other observations from the report include:

# American military forces can't keep up with training local militaries to match the growth of Muslim insurgent groups and that must improve. Police should be trained by professional police trainers.

# American military prowess should focus "on border and coastal surveillance, technical intelligence collection, air mobility, large-scale logistics, and special operations against high-value targets."

# A new information-sharing architecture should be created. This "Integrated Counterinsurgency Operating Network" would promote "universal cell phone use, 'wikis' and video monitoring."

# "Pro-America" themes should be dropped "in favor of strengthening local government" and emphasizing the failure of jihadists to meet people's needs.

# U.S. allies and international organizations, such as NATO, the European Union, and the United Nations could help the United States in areas such as "building education, health and justice systems, and training police and" military forces that perform civilian police duties.
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[motivez]

Originally Posted by RMNIXON

I admit we vastly underestimated the internal political problems, and were very slow to react when we did.

Now that the Surge is working McCain likes to remind people that he was for it long before the Bush Whitehouse.

What do you think of that?

The surge isn't working. The goal of the surge was to provide space for political progress to happen, that hasn't happened.

The surge has quelled the violence to some extent, but the levels are still far too high, and I attribute the *vast* majority of the drop in violence not to our troop presence, but due to the Shi'ite militias (Al Sadr and the other big ones) calling a temporary truce between each other of their own accord.