Democratic Udall Running Strong in New Mexico Senate Race

[Ron Burgundy]

CQPolitics.com - Democratic hopes for a gain of at least one Senate seat in 2008 are growing, buoyed by new campaign finance reports and polls in New Mexico. Despite retiring Republican Sen. Pete V. Domenici's long tenure, popularity and strong reputation in the state, Democratic Rep. Tom Udall already dominates his two Republican challengers.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Mexico 49 to 33 percent, and Democrats appear highly motivated, as indicated by the overwhelming turnout at Super Tuesday's presidential caucuses. Increased turnout among Democrats combined with Udall's superior fundraising and nearly clear shot to the Democratic nomination give him a leg up in the race, says New Mexico political analyst Joe Monahan.

"The race is under way, and out of the gate Udall is ahead by a full length," Monahan said. "It's going to be close, but this is a great chance for Democrats. There's no doubt about that."

CQ Politics has changed its rating on the race from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic.

A recent survey from New Mexico State University indicated Udall handily led both Reps. Heather A. Wilson and Steve Pearce in a general election match-up. In a one-on-one race with Pearce, Udall would hold a 22-point lead (53 percent to 31 percent, with 16 percent undecided) while he would lead Wilson by 28 points (58 percent to 30 percent, with 13 percent undecided), the poll indicated.

And in what promises to be one of the most expensive races of the 2008 election cycle, Udall raised more money in the fourth quarter of 2007 than Wilson and Pearce combined, even though he did not get into the race until late November. According to the candidates' year-end reports with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Udall raised just over $1 million in the fourth quarter while Wilson raised $524,000 and Pearce raised $402,000.

With her earlier start, Wilson pulled in $1.5 million for all of 2007 with $1.1 million on hand by the end of the year. Pearce reported he raised $922,000 and had $820,000 on hand by Dec. 31 while Udall had $1.7 million in cash by the end of the year. All were aided by leftover funds from earlier campaign cycles.

With four months before the June 3 primary, Pearce and Wilson are already locked into a difficult battle. Wilson holds an advantage in fundraising and also has better name identification because she represents the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District.

Pearce's 2nd District in southern New Mexico lacks a coherent media market and although he is well known there, his name ID does not extend far beyond district lines. Pearce has already bought TV ads in the Albuquerque media market to try to introduce himself there, which political analyst Heath Haussamen said was an important strategic move. "It was a smart idea for him to get on TV early and try to craft his own image. He kind of has a blank slate across a lot of the state," Haussamen said.

Pearce is easily the more conservative of the two contenders. He is a staunch supporter of tougher border regulation, and Christine Sierra, a professor of political science at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque, predicted Pearce will come out even more forcefully on the issue of border enforcement as his campaign unfolds. Pearce has also been endorsed by the anti-tax Club for Growth, which should help with fundraising.

Meanwhile, Wilson is positioning herself as the more moderate one in the race. She told students at a forum at Eastern New Mexico University that she defined herself as a "common-sense conservative."

"I trust people much more than I trust government," she said, according to the Portales News-Tribune.

Analyst Haussamen believes that being a moderate could be effective for Wilson. "It is true that New Mexico likes more moderate Republicans in Washington. ... Heather Wilson's worked across the aisle -- Steve Pearce has not very often," he said.

Another factor in the Republican race is retiring Sen. Domenici, who has not endorsed a candidate in the race despite his longtime ties to Wilson. Domenici has a significant amount of money in his campaign committee coffers; he raised $2 million and had $1.8 million on hand by the end of the year. According to federal campaign regulations, Domenici can refund the contributions, transfer that money to one of the Republican Party's campaign committees or donate it to charity. Domenici also could donate the money to candidates, but would be restricted by federal campaign contribution limits of $2,000 per candidate.

Pearce, Wilson and Udall are considered the top candidates for the Senate race. However, they also are joined by Democrat Leland Lehrman and Republican Tom Benavides, who had not filed campaign finance reports as of Friday. FEC rules say if candidates haven't raised more than $5,000, they do not have to file a quarterly report.

All the candidates for New Mexico must file their petitions of candidacy with the state by 5 p.m. Feb. 12.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080211/pl_cq_politics/politics2668829 [link]