10 State Winning Streak - is Clinton Done?

[David Octavius]

Ok there are still some big states left including Texas and PA and delegate rich states like Ohio - but put on your prediction hat and vote:

Has Hillary already lost?

Losing 10 in a row for anyone else would devastating, but because her last name is Clinton, no one wants to count her out. Plus she does have a political machine behind her. But is her strategy of focusing on big states ultimately going to cost her or will she make a comeback and be stronger then ever against an opponent that - for how great his strategy is in this election - is still inexperienced to the primary process?

[garbagemanlb]

She's done.

[DosEquis]

I think she will sneak out ohio, but it won't be enough because he will probably win the rest.

[JaJae]

I think Texas will not be as successful for her as she has planned. Her campaign dropped the ball on that one.
Democrats are turning on the Clintons

Also, in PA her campaign showed another blunder
John Baer: How Pa. extension benefited Clinton | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/19/2008

I think Ohio is her best bet to grab some real delegates, but I don't think she'll be able to get enough to win the primaries. She's staying in it now hoping for it to go to convention and robbing the nomination from Obama. If they can prevent Obama from getting enough delegates to be the clear winner anything can happen. You also have to figure she's fighting for delegates in Florida/Michigan and other ways to cheat delegates to her side.

I wouldn't ever count the Clintons out this early though. They are a strong political machine with a lot of connections and they're willing to do anything to win no matter the costs monetarily or ethically.

[Phantom]

I'll wait until the debates. I wouldn't be surprised if she dropped a bomb that changes everything.

I don't see her bowing out peacefully.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Phantom

I'll wait until the debates. I wouldn't be surprised if she dropped a bomb that changes everything.

I don't see her bowing out peacefully.

That's another thing. At any time one or the other could say or do something that could shake everything up.

[JaJae]

I think it's also important to note that WI was a state that was up for grabs. It was a state that Hillary led by double digits. The polls before elections showed Obama up, but not by the 17 points he blew her over by. If he can keep pulling out points over the polls he'll walk through the rest of this election process.

[Stylerod]

Originally Posted by Phantom

I'll wait until the debates. I wouldn't be surprised if she dropped a bomb that changes everything.

I don't see her bowing out peacefully.

I agree. She won't lose gracefully and I really think she will do whatever she can to win. And because she is such a fighter and not afraid of winning dirty I won't count her out until she actually conceeds.

[motivez]

Are there going to be any more debates? I thought Obama was ducking them?

A smart move for his political career, as they certainly haven't been his strong point against Hillary, IMO.. but it makes him look scared, and that makes me worry about how he'd fair against John McCain.

I don't think she'll come back. Momentum is HEAVILY on Obama's side, and he's started making deep inroads into Clinton's formerly solid demographics.. Hispanics, Women, and Whites.

I think she might pick up either Texas or Ohio narrowly, maybe even both, but a narrow win isn't going to change the game IMO. People aren't going to suddenly say, "Wait a second, lets take another look at Hillary, she squeaked out a win in 2 states.." unless something damaging comes out about Obama.

And it may yet. We don't really know. Obama, media darling that he is, hasn't really been subjected to even 10% of the scrutiny that Hillary has over the years.. of course the subject of experience comes up, but I don't really think I've seen anything completely negative about him like I have with Hillary and other candidates on both sides of the isle.

[WickedLou9]

I'm going to use a poker analogy. If you understand texas holdem this will make perfect sense. If you don't.. it will be nonsense. Sorry in advance

I think before super tuesday you had a situation where Hillary had a pocket pair to Obama's two overcards. Hillary was the odds on favorite ( ~55% to win ) . After super tuesday we saw the flop and Obama paired up both of his hole cards giving him two pair to Hillary's pocket 9s. Hillary still has a couple outs in the deck, but now that super tuesday is behind us, Obama is the odds on favorite. unless she hits one of the two remaining 9s in the deck, she's done. I will call Texas the Turn and Ohio the River. I dunno. I guess.
It's not impossible but it is unlikely. If I was Obama, I would not feel bad about having all of my chips in the pot.

[David Octavius]

About 60% of the remaining 1191 (pledged) delegates are in Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, but NC is not until May. If Hillary loses Ohio AND Texas - even by a small margin - she should drop out for the good of the party, there is no way after that she is going to win (the remaining states look to favor Obama) and there will not enough delegates for her to catch up. If she becomes selfish there will a brokered convention and that would be terrible for the demos.

[Publius]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

I'm going to use a poker analogy. If you understand texas holdem this will make perfect sense. If you don't.. it will be nonsense. Sorry in advance

I think before super tuesday you had a situation where Hillary had a pocket pair to Obama's two overcards. Hillary was the odds on favorite ( ~55% to win ) . After super tuesday we saw the flop and Obama paired up both of his hole cards giving him two pair to Hillary's pocket 9s. Hillary still has a couple outs in the deck, but now that super tuesday is behind us, Obama is the odds on favorite. unless she hits one of the two remaining 9s in the deck, she's done. I will call Texas the Turn and Ohio the River. I dunno. I guess.
It's not impossible but it is unlikely. If I was Obama, I would not feel bad about having all of my chips in the pot.

actually a good analogy.

[thewise1]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

I'm going to use a poker analogy. If you understand texas holdem this will make perfect sense. If you don't.. it will be nonsense. Sorry in advance

I think before super tuesday you had a situation where Hillary had a pocket pair to Obama's two overcards. Hillary was the odds on favorite ( ~55% to win ) . After super tuesday we saw the flop and Obama paired up both of his hole cards giving him two pair to Hillary's pocket 9s. Hillary still has a couple outs in the deck, but now that super tuesday is behind us, Obama is the odds on favorite. unless she hits one of the two remaining 9s in the deck, she's done. I will call Texas the Turn and Ohio the River. I dunno. I guess.
It's not impossible but it is unlikely. If I was Obama, I would not feel bad about having all of my chips in the pot.

This post is full of win.

I wish I could win at holdem sometimes

[motivez]

It would be interesting if NC actually helped play a role in the selection process

[Publius]

Originally Posted by motivez

It would be interesting if NC actually helped play a role in the selection process

Texas rarely has a real role in the process, people are freaking out about it this year. Apparently on the first day of early voting 7 times as many Democrats and 3 times as many Republicans voted before 2pm as did on the entire first day in 2004.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by motivez

Are there going to be any more debates? I thought Obama was ducking them?

A smart move for his political career, as they certainly haven't been his strong point against Hillary, IMO.. but it makes him look scared, and that makes me worry about how he'd fair against John McCain.

I don't think she'll come back. Momentum is HEAVILY on Obama's side, and he's started making deep inroads into Clinton's formerly solid demographics.. Hispanics, Women, and Whites.

I think she might pick up either Texas or Ohio narrowly, maybe even both, but a narrow win isn't going to change the game IMO. People aren't going to suddenly say, "Wait a second, lets take another look at Hillary, she squeaked out a win in 2 states.." unless something damaging comes out about Obama.

And it may yet. We don't really know. Obama, media darling that he is, hasn't really been subjected to even 10% of the scrutiny that Hillary has over the years.. of course the subject of experience comes up, but I don't really think I've seen anything completely negative about him like I have with Hillary and other candidates on both sides of the isle.

These are all really good points, but I just wanted to touch on the Obama's lack of scrutiny in the media. He doesn't have the political life or the public life that Hillary has had. He's a tough nut to crack because he hasn't been in the public eye for nearly as long as Hillary or McCain. It can either work for him or against him.

[WickedLou9]

Originally Posted by thewise1

This post is full of win.

I wish I could win at holdem sometimes

I havn't played in a while. I used to play online alot. I read a bunch of books on it. I was really into it for a couple years. Then I sorta got tired of it.
It can be too stressful sometimes, even if it's just for a few dollars.
My brother used to go down to AC and play there almost every weekend. He would have swings where he woul sit with 300 bucks, be up like a grand and then loose it all. You really need to be on a very even keel to play that game.

[A_C_E]

I don't think she's done....yet.

I will say that she needs huge wins (I'm talking 57-43 or better) in both Ohio and Texas to keep herself alive. As much as I'm behind Obama, I don't know that she CAN'T win by those margins. Either way, it's going to be a fun couple of weeks.

I really hope, for the good of the party, that Barack can almost lock this up on March 5th. We can't afford a brokered convention and still have a chance to win the White House.

[thewise1]

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

I havn't played in a while. I used to play online alot. I read a bunch of books on it. I was really into it for a couple years. Then I sorta got tired of it.
It can be too stressful sometimes, even if it's just for a few dollars.
My brother used to go down to AC and play there almost every weekend. He would have swings where he woul sit with 300 bucks, be up like a grand and then loose it all. You really need to be on a very even keel to play that game.

I just play with a bunch of neighbors. I think they must cheat

[A_C_E]