What the hell is Hugo doing?

[Smull]

I'm new here so hi everyone.

So apparently Hugo is sending tanks to the Colombian boarder because hes angry that they killed some rebels that he liked.

BBC NEWS | Americas | Venezuela 'sends tanks to border'


What the hell? This strikes me as, at least potentially, a really big deal. If Hugo starts a war in South America there will be tremendous pressure on the U.S. to intervene. While its unlikely he'll actually go through with it, the consequences if he does are huge. I'm surprised this hasnt gotten more attention. Your thoughts?

[David Octavius]

It's major posturing for sure (he does have a history of big talk) but I don't think he dumb enough to start a war - Columbia is headed by an American Ally, any invasion or war would be the end of his rule and he knows it.

[motivez]

Originally Posted by David Octavius

It's major posturing for sure (he does have a history of big talk) but I don't think he dumb enough to start a war - Columbia is headed by an American Ally, any invasion or war would be the end of his rule and he knows it.

You think we'd actually respond with military force?

[Donkey®]

Well let's not just blame Hugo here...

Ecuador pulls diplomat from Bogota - CNN.com

[Stylerod]

Originally Posted by Donkey®

Well let's not just blame Hugo here...

Ecuador pulls diplomat from Bogota - CNN.com

Well, they pretty much have to do this just to save face. But congrats to Columbia for killing this guy

Luis Edgar Devia Silva aka Raúl Reyes, (September 30, 1948 - March 1, 2008) was a Secretariat Member, spokesperson and Advisor to the Southern Bloc of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-EP. Reyes was born in the Colombian town of La Plata, Huila Department [1]. He was a Marxist by conviction who started in the trade union movement while working for a milk plant of Nestlé in Caqueta province. Devia Silva was accused by the US Department of State and the Colombian government of advocating the expansion of FARC’s cocaine trafficking activities, setting the FARC’s cocaine policies, including the production, manufacture, and distribution of thousands of tons of cocaine to the United States and the world. He had also been accused of promoting the so-called "taxation" of the illegal drug trade in Colombia to raise funds for the FARC, as well as of participating in the murder of hundreds of people who violated or interfered with the FARC’s interests. Before his death the United States Department of State was offering a reward of up to US$5 million for information leading to his arrest. [2]. Raul Reyes was a member of the FARC Secretariat, the highest ranked member after Manuel Marulanda (Tirofijo) their chairman. Reyes was a prominent figure and spokesperson for the FARC.

[Stylerod]

Originally Posted by motivez

You think we'd actually respond with military force?

Air support probably, if Columbia is attacked.

[Phantom]

Originally Posted by motivez

You think we'd actually respond with military force?

I think we already fund Columbia's military, that should be more help then they need.

I don't see us sending troops down south for this unless Columbia is about the be taken over.

[Rouger2]

Hugo loves that media attention.

[motivez]

Every time I hear someone say Hugo I immediately think about Hurley from Lost

Anyone else?

[Fed Up]

I did a quick analysis of this earlier today....

America's Next War?

Venezuela and Ecuador via Colombia....based on my analysis of putting some pieces of the puzzle together....

Reasoning:

U.S. administration doesn't like Chavez
Venezuela has oil
U.S. friendly with Colombia, but not the FARC rebels who are listed as a terrorist organization
Kill two birds with one stone in a sense...get rid of Chavez and FARC, or at least do some damage

Colombia: Evidence suggests Chavez gave FARC $300M

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/

It started in 2002:

Q&A: US involvement in Colombia

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1948884.stm

From there it has led to the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008; H.R. 2764:, signed by Bush in December 2007 where funds set aside for Colombia amount to 100's of millions and are available for a mulititude of purposes.

ECONOMIC SUPPORT FUND

"Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, $196,000,000 shall be apportioned directly to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for alternative development/institution building and sustainable development programs in Colombia and may be transferred to, and merged with, funds appropriated under the heading `Development Assistance' to continue programs administered by USAID...."

INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS CONTROL AND LAW ENFORCEMENT

Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not less than $39,750,000 shall be made available for judicial, human rights, rule of law and related activities for Colombia, of which not less than $20,000,000 shall be made available for the Office of the Attorney General, of which $5,000,000 shall be for the Human Rights Unit, $5,000,000 shall be for the Justice and Peace Unit, $7,000,000 shall be used to support a witness protection program for victims of armed groups, and $3,000,000 shall be for investigations of mass graves and identification of remains: Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading that are available for assistance for Colombia, $8,000,000 shall be available for human rights activities, $5,500,000 shall be available for judicial reform, $3,000,000 shall be for the Office of the Procuraduria General de la Nacion, $2,000,000 shall be for the Office of the Defensoria del Pueblo, and $750,000 should be made available for a United States contribution to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in Colombia to support monitoring and public reporting of human rights conditions in the field: Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not more than $38,000,000 may be available for administrative expenses.

ANDEAN COUNTERDRUG PROGRAMS

For necessary expenses to carry out section 481 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 to support counterdrug activities in the Andean region of South America, $327,460,000, to remain available until September 30, 2010

"Provided further, That funds made available to the Department of State for assistance to the Government of Colombia in this Act may be used to support a unified campaign against narcotics trafficking and organizations designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations...,"

FOREIGN MILITARY FINANCING PROGRAM

"Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not more than $53,000,000 shall be available for Colombia...,"

Of course, these are the funds we know about. There's also the CIA, FEMA, NSA....

The above is not proof of anything...just an analysis...

Fed Up

[Donkey®]

Yeah, we NEVER sold arms to Iran and funded the Contras. Didn't happen.

[David Octavius]

Originally Posted by motivez

You think we'd actually respond with military force?

war by proxy or air raids are certainly in the realm of possibility and not without precedent

[Smull]

NYT: Colombia Says Rebels Sought to Make Dirty Bomb

Long story short, Colombia says they have evidence that FARC (the rebel group that Hugo is a little too friendly with) was making a radioactive dirty bomb. Also Ecuador is real pissed off that Colombia killed the rebels while they were in Ecuador. This is getting more and more intense, hopefully it doesn't escalate.

Kinda sucks that this is barely getting any play in the media, with the return of super Tuesday and all...

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

I did a quick analysis of this earlier today....

America's Next War?

Venezuela and Ecuador via Colombia....based on my analysis of putting some pieces of the puzzle together....

Reasoning:

U.S. administration doesn't like Chavez
Venezuela has oil
U.S. friendly with Colombia, but not the FARC rebels who are listed as a terrorist organization
Kill two birds with one stone in a sense...get rid of Chavez and FARC, or at least do some damage

Colombia: Evidence suggests Chavez gave FARC $300M

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/

It started in 2002:

Q&A: US involvement in Colombia

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1948884.stm

From there it has led to the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008; H.R. 2764:, signed by Bush in December 2007 where funds set aside for Colombia amount to 100's of millions and are available for a mulititude of purposes.

ECONOMIC SUPPORT FUND

"Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, $196,000,000 shall be apportioned directly to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for alternative development/institution building and sustainable development programs in Colombia and may be transferred to, and merged with, funds appropriated under the heading `Development Assistance' to continue programs administered by USAID...."

INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS CONTROL AND LAW ENFORCEMENT

Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not less than $39,750,000 shall be made available for judicial, human rights, rule of law and related activities for Colombia, of which not less than $20,000,000 shall be made available for the Office of the Attorney General, of which $5,000,000 shall be for the Human Rights Unit, $5,000,000 shall be for the Justice and Peace Unit, $7,000,000 shall be used to support a witness protection program for victims of armed groups, and $3,000,000 shall be for investigations of mass graves and identification of remains: Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading that are available for assistance for Colombia, $8,000,000 shall be available for human rights activities, $5,500,000 shall be available for judicial reform, $3,000,000 shall be for the Office of the Procuraduria General de la Nacion, $2,000,000 shall be for the Office of the Defensoria del Pueblo, and $750,000 should be made available for a United States contribution to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in Colombia to support monitoring and public reporting of human rights conditions in the field: Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not more than $38,000,000 may be available for administrative expenses.

ANDEAN COUNTERDRUG PROGRAMS

For necessary expenses to carry out section 481 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 to support counterdrug activities in the Andean region of South America, $327,460,000, to remain available until September 30, 2010

"Provided further, That funds made available to the Department of State for assistance to the Government of Colombia in this Act may be used to support a unified campaign against narcotics trafficking and organizations designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations...,"

FOREIGN MILITARY FINANCING PROGRAM

"Provided further, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not more than $53,000,000 shall be available for Colombia...,"

Of course, these are the funds we know about. There's also the CIA, FEMA, NSA....

The above is not proof of anything...just an analysis...

Fed Up

Hey...I hear Colombia's nice this time of year!

Bush backs Colombia over Venezuela "provocation" - Yahoo! News

Fed Up

[wanna be drummer]

We're not going to war with Venezuela. Bush has less than a year left, and I don't see him ending it with another unpopular war (key word being another).

I'll agree with earlier posts and also say that Hugo isn't stupid enough to start a real war if there's any chance of the U.S. blowing him to hell

[Fed Up]

Originally Posted by wanna be drummer

I'll agree with earlier posts and also say that Hugo isn't stupid enough to start a real war if there's any chance of the U.S. blowing him to hell

Yeah, Saddam thought the same thing....

Definition: Super-Ego

Fed Up

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

Yeah, Saddam thought the same thing....

Definition: Super-Ego

Fed Up

No way are we going to put anybody on the ground other than some advisors in Columbia. Thet have the people to do that anyway. But we might just drop a few bombs on his infrastructure and industry. He has already made a big enough mess with his cronies trying to run everything that it would not take much to knock him over. Is he dumb enough to give us a good reason?

Yes!

[RMNIXON]

Originally Posted by motivez

Every time I hear someone say Hugo I immediately think about Hurley from Lost

Anyone else?

[wanna be drummer]

Originally Posted by Fed Up

Yeah, Saddam thought the same thing....

Definition: Super-Ego

Fed Up

Maybe so. But who knows? We'll see

[Smull]

NYT: Crisis Averted

Everyone kissed and made up, no outside help necessary. Should be interesting to see if Hugo makes any more trouble in the region or if he'll just stick to his big talk.