First 2008 state-by-state GE matchup released by SurveyUSA

[Thorgrim]

Daily Kos: State of the Nation

So I get realistic, I take away North Dakota and Nebraska because...how does someone lose PA and win states like ND and NE...they are very small states that simply haven't had any serious anti-Obama material and decent pro-McCain spending...if ND goes for Obama it'd be a 60-40 election and I don't think anyone is seriously forecasting that

I even accepted situations I thought were very unusual, like despite his poor showing with hispanics, and McCain's support of immigration overhaul, he'd win over huge numbers of hispanics not just anywhere, but 4 states that neighbor McCain's home state

Get this, apparently a state that, in 2006, huge Democratic year, barely elected such a moderate Democrat that Fox New's Col. Hunt supported him and made Sean Hannity speechless on air, that they are going to elect a black man with no military service over a white decorated PoW...do I have to remind everyone that just a few decades ago...well after the civil rights act...Virginia was still trying to slow desegregation and even had inter-racial marriages illegal...

So, even taking in these extremely unlikely scenarios, he get's a grand total of 275 electoral votes, does anyone here suspect that the sparkle is going to go down just a tad in these next 8 months and he'll lose just 6-7 of those EV and the presidency...

If you made it even more realistic, McCain gets Nevada and Virginia at least, giving McCain 281 votes and the election...thats assuming Obama keeps his lead against McCain in states McCain has not really advertised in like Ohio


Now going to Clinton, who has had every GOP member sling mud on her for 16 years, and huge throngs of indepedents and democrats getting in on the act...STILL wins a general election matchup...that has to be amazing to anyone who has one iota of objectivity

Let's however, be a tad bit more realistic...Hillary, when this poll was taken, was before people knew about Ohio/Texas victories, or any subsequent development, it was the low point of her entire campaign

So, in that poll, she's down only 2 points in Washington, and Obama is up 14 points...I think it's safe to say that state is going D

New Hampshire has been trending blue...but we're being fair here, so let's keep it red

Arkansas, in this combination...I realize she was the governors wife and all...but I don't see that happening, turn that state red and take it away from Hillary

NM and FL certainly seem lined up for her, she won both states and looks set to win FL again (polls have her at +10 points, like Ohio), NM is looking really bluer this year because of the congressional and senate races plus increased hispanic turnout, I even gave Obama that one

Ohio, sure, that stated gave her a +10 win, and it's no secret that the exit polls showed slightly racist participation, how much worse do you think that is going to be among those who only come out for GE's or were temporarily pissed at the GOP? Yet the sexism factor just isn't there

Hillary losing Iowa? Sure, Gore/Kerry barely won it and she's not offering them anything that would really change their minds

Michigan though? Went for Gore by roughly 5, Kerry 4...and besides SUSA actually shows a tie, not a McCain win...that's going Blue if Ohio is...and Ohio is if Hillary gets the nod

Also let's throw WV back red...and keep very progressive Oregon shockingly red

What happens, Hillary still wins with 293 EV

Let's be honest, this is the low point here, in 8 months we both know even after the media fell in love with McCain and thought he was savagely beaten by Bush...a lot of things changed...McCainiacs went back to vote for Bush (for saying much much worse things than Cliton's camp said about Obama)

So honestly, the enough people that are giving some big margins to Obama would give some support to Hillary, and she'd win natural D states like Oregon, and states that looked pretty blue in 2006 like IA and NH...with her ending up with 311, enough to lose FL, NM, and 9 more EV and still win

[SoFlaJDM]

i've said it before, and i'll say it again, it's not gonna be close