Two objective reasons to re-consider your support of Obama

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Phantom

Let's try this again again. You're assuming he has problems based on the results of primary elections

My assertion is basing assumptions of general election results on primary results is flawed.

it's not simply the final tally, its the coalitions that brought them there...if two candidates form different coaltions, and one candidate is unable to get the other throughout the primary, despite at times overwhelming momentum, that's a problem

Can you point me to an example where only two primary candidates faced off, one candidate won most of the big battleground states, more electoral votes, and the other person won and went on to win comfortably?

[Phantom]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

it's not simply the final tally, its the coalitions that brought them there...if two candidates form different coaltions, and one candidate is unable to get the other throughout the primary, despite at times overwhelming momentum, that's a problem

Can you point me to an example where only two primary candidates faced off, one candidate won most of the big battleground states, more electoral votes, and the other person won and went on to win comfortably?

I don't think you can predict general election results in that manner.

The consensus on Obama is he brings voters to the booths who would not ordinarily come out to vote.

The conclusions that one can draw from this above statement is:

those voters who came out only for Obama would not come out for Hillary


On the other hand, everybody seems to assume that those voters who voted for Hillary in the primary will almost all come out and vote for Obama if he is the party's candidate in the general election.

Because of these trinkets of "common wisdom," I don't think your assumptions are reasonable.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by Phantom

I don't think you can predict general election results in that manner.

The consensus on Obama is he brings voters to the booths who would not ordinarily come out to vote.

The conclusions that one can draw from this above statement is:

those voters who came out only for Obama would not come out for Hillary


On the other hand, everybody seems to assume that those voters who voted for Hillary in the primary will almost all come out and vote for Obama if he is the party's candidate in the general election.

Because of these trinkets of "common wisdom," I don't think your assumptions are reasonable.

I think Hillary brings voters to the booth who would not normally turn out, or would strongly consider McCain

Your "common wisdom" is flawed because exit polls from voters have shown high approval of both candidates

only 20% would be unhappy if Obama were the nominee, 30% if Hillary were...and this includes Republican voters (in the dem primary) and an undetermined amount of Bush-indepedents
Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news from CNN.com

I believe the numbers are even within the exit polls wide MoE...if it were something like only single digits would be unsatisfied with Obama, but 40%+ would be unsatisfied with Clinton, you'd have a point backed up by statistics

And this was a state Obama won

Also note, in Maryland, which was part of Obama huge winning streak, only 5% are new voters...pokes another hole in the "new big wave of Obama voters!" argument

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

I believe the numbers are even within the exit polls wide MoE...if it were something like only single digits would be unsatisfied with Obama, but 40%+ would be unsatisfied with Clinton, you'd have a point backed up by statistics

Basically favorability ratings and such only matter if there's a 30+% different between the candidates... come on now.

Poll: Is Hillary Electable? - First Read - msnbc.com

In the poll, 48% say they would consider voting for Clinton versus 52% who say they wouldn't. By comparison, majorities signal they would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates:

Obama (60%-40%)
McCain (58%-42%)
Clinton (48%-52%)

And her unfavorable rating is still hovering at about 50%. Last I heard it was 52%. She has consistently had extremely high unfavorable ratings. The other candidates are up by 20 points, Hillary is down by 4 points. Which is almost at your magic 30 point number.

[Thorgrim]

actually it looks like a 7% difference...again within the MoE
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

and this is based on a standard and opinion I wasn't discussing...

I think it's more useful to go through states where both candidates spent millions of dollars, had close numbers going in, and did hard campaigning...when voters exit the polls they have as much sense as they ever will about how they "feel" about each candidate

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

actually it looks like a 7% difference...again within the MoE

Kerry and Bush were separated by less than half that in the final counts. That's a huge number.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Kerry and Bush were separated by less than half that in the final counts. That's a huge number.

final polls conducted by modern firms the day before general presidential elections are historically accurate, 8 months before the election...no

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

final polls conducted by modern firms the day before general presidential elections are historically accurate, 8 months before the election...no

Doesn't mean you should ignore them completely though. Will things change form now until November? Obviously. That doesn't mean the party should just ignore what the polls are showing now. Otherwise why even bother with primaries in January anyway?