Senate Elections 2008

[Thorgrim]

Okay I just did a big update...although most of you probably know most of these developments...and those particularly interested will notice these rankings look very similiar to other political analysts...I like to think I have my own little flare and I believe my rankings are slightly different in several subtle ways

Tell me if it looks good

[Thorgrim]

As you can see, of all the even slightly competitive 14 races (15 is really a safe seat) only 1 is Democratic

Yes we could really see all those 14 go Democratic, as March, it looks like we can safely say the Democrats will pickup 5 seats, and possibly lose one, for 4-5+ gain

However there are real possibilites in Oregon, Maine and even Alaska, and outside shots in Texas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi and even Nebraska

If the election were today, the polling and blue trends would seem to point to no Dem loses, and the Democratic Party gaining 7-8 seats (still one short of the magic 9 to make it filibuster proof [Democrats currently control 51 seats, 60 to over-ride any GOP filibuster])

[SoFlaJDM]

this is expected... and the trends are showing that things are only going to get worse for the republicans.

at the very least, i'm predicting a 60 seat total for the dems

[SoFlaJDM]

alaska and oregon look very attainable as well

[Thorgrim]

How do you get 60? If conservative and relatively popular Harold Ford lost in TN in 2006...why would more moderate and less popular people beat incumbents?

If I had to pick, I'd say our max is about 7-8 and we'll get 6-8

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

How do you get 60? If conservative and relatively popular Harold Ford lost in TN in 2006...why would more moderate and less popular people beat incumbents?

If I had to pick, I'd say our max is about 7-8 and we'll get 6-8

because the times are a changin my friend

seriously though, i think people are sick of the status quo, and will vote just like they did in 06, if not, even more democrat leaning. just look at the voter turnouts...

when these races begin to heat up, the "leans takeover" column will grow

[Thorgrim]

The real great news has been great picks like Mark Warner, Tom Udall, Mark Udall, Jeanne Shaheen

If we would have gotten Rep. Defazio, Fmr Gov&Sen Kerrey, Gov Easely (sorry motivez i always screw up his name), Greg Stumbo, and Mike Moore...

We'd have got Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi to bring in the 5 we're already looking at...that'd be 10 and we could lose LA and still have filibuster proof...

damn i love the recruiting but hate some of the recruiting failures...especially Oregon! that seat would have been golden for the next 20 years, they're so progressive

[motivez]

I'm really wondering about NC this year.. There's such an anti-Republican mood in the air, but Dole is still pretty entrenched isn't she?

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

I'm really wondering about NC this year.. There's such an anti-Republican mood in the air, but Dole is still pretty entrenched isn't she?

You'd know better than me, all I can tell you is that polls constantly show her in the 40s, but no one wanted to seriously challenge her, the main challenger publically stated he was gay, and then the coneservatives democrats scrambled to get a state senator to run...but really they had a lot of people who could have run but figure 2008 is going to be such a republican turnout machine in the south that they'd just be wasting a chance, 2010 is their year...I think your Gov has his eye on 2010 but I haven't heard anything past rumors