Senate Elections 2008

[Thorgrim]

For the complete run down, check out the liberty lounge webpage:
Senate Elections 2008 | The Liberty Lounge

That gives you the full info, and is updated with new information,

However, this is where I put only the updates for the month (once we hit the fall, it might be weekly, by November, daily)

Updates for April

-The only Democrat in danger takes a 16 point lead and is well above the 50% safe zone, in Louisiana
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.
-Abramoff connection hits CO's GOP nominee-to-be Schaffer, which looks like it has a chance of providing a breakout moment for Mark Udall
ColoradoPols.com:: Schaffer/Abramoff: Apparent Coordination Detailed



Updates for March 2008:
-South Dakota- The filing deadline has passed, it looks like the only quasi-serious candidate is Joel Dykstra, who is Tim Johnson absolutely destroys 63% to 28%, according to Rasmussen, this race is now Safe Democrat
-Montana- Their filing deadline has passed as well, with no serious challengers, safe democrat

-New Mexico- Tom Udall (D) keeps his large lead, for months now, keeps the race "Leans Takeover"
-New Hampshire- an outlier poll that gave the Republican Senator some optimism has been overtaken by new polls showing it was an outlier rather than a new trend
-Minnesota- Al Franken (D) is the presumed candidate with his big primary opponent, Mike Ciresi (D) dropping out...some of you have to seriously start thinking about sentences with "Sen. Al Franken"
-Alaska- Stevens is looking to face a real race as popular mayor Begich (D) is running
-Mississippi- Wicker replaced Lott, as he retired to lobby, Musgrove (D) has a clear field, but Mississippi is very red, who knows...no polls yet
-Texas- US War Vet from Afghanistan, Rick Noriega (D) has won the primary
-Kentucky- former gubernatorial candidate Lunsford seems the best Democrats can hope for, as everyone else declined to run
-Nebraska- Scott Kleeb (D) who almost won the most conservative part of Nebraska in 2006, is running for Senate against the very popular former governor...chances are he'll lose badly
-Arkansas- Time has come and gone, and no challenger AT ALL for Mark Pryor (D)
-Iowa- Time has gone and gone, and no REAL challenger for Tom Harkin (D)

[Thorgrim]

Here is the 2006 Outlook I gave in Dec 2006, look here for laughs (laugh at me for thinking Charles Barkley might run, but tip your hat for me calling the Larry Craig when 99% of America thought he was straight)

Here is a very pre-liminary look at 2008 Republicans:

1) Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Charles Barkley! Yeah! Sesssions is smarter than he sounds but he's still flaming conservative and in the right year voters might pause

2) Alaska (Ted Stevens)
Stevens could faulter or decide to retire, in that case we should have anchorage mayor Begich ready to tackle him

3) Colorado (Wayne Allard)
If he runs he's toast, Udall would wipe the floor with him like Brown did with DeWine

4) Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Atlanta mayor Shirley Franklin...black woman and popular in a state that is 30% black with a fair share of moderate Jews and Christians...Chambliss can be slammed for how he treated Cleland...comparing him to OBL when he gave up most of his body for our country in Vietnam

5) Idaho (Larry Craig)
If the homosexuality stories (especially him with male prostitutes) gain some real media traction, he could find himself fucked (ha!) LaRocco only lost by 8pts in 2006 for the governors seat against a pretty popular republican, a scandal tainted Craig could be a pickup

6) Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Kathleen Sebelius, but it'd be a miracle for her to run, and a minor miracle for her to win in an election year
Former Gov Jones as a token race most likely...50 state strategy must be played every year for the Dems to control Congress for another 60 years

7) Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
George Clooney would make for a very interesting race, despite what I am sure most republicans will think when I say he's the best candidate we can field

8) Maine (Susan Collins)
Rep. Allen is being pressured hard core by Schumer to run again, and he looks to be given in...Collins has high approval but she is in Snowe's shadow and they already have one powerful female moderate republican, why two? Get a Dem in there to get both parties power to Maine

9) Minnesota (Norm Coleman)
McCollum would win, Coleman is heading into a state that just had a relatively unknown female politician beat what the GOP considered at one point "their best pickup chance" by high double digits...Minnesota has turned left and Coleman won last time by almost default
Al Franken (as much as I'd love to see his antics as a Senator, and how much that'd piss off Fox) should not run

10) Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
If Moore runs, he has a high chance of picking up the seat if Cochran retires...even if he doesn't...if the stars line up correctly...Cochran isn't invincible like Lott

11) North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole)
Outgoing Gov. Mike Easley would give Dole a fight she probably can't handle, AG Mike Cooper could be a strong candidate as well...Dole is weak as a politician and NC turned just a little bluer last election even though its a red state (43 for Gore and Kerry)

12) Nebraska (Chuck Hagel)
If he runs he wins, if he retires, Scott Kleeb looks like the strongest candidate and he's a Dem

13) New Hampshire (John Sununu)
Look for Dems to make a big issue out of phonejamgate which sent republican operatives to prison, not to mention NH is going blue and just turned its entire delegation and state assembly democratic, Shaheen will probably win for a rematch, and this time it looks like she'll pull it off unless Sununu goes hard left this cycle

14) New Mexico (Pete Domenici)
Tom Udall might give even Pete a good race, but if the old man retires, forget it, its Udall's seat

15) Oklahoma (James Inhofe)
Nearly impossible...unless Gov. Brad Henry runs and Obama/Gore/Clinton is NOT the nominee...however Carson could make it a race considering how unpopular Inhofe is among moderates, it'd be worth it to drain the GOP's money and hope for a George Allen/Conrad Burns situation

16) Oregon (Gordon Smith)
Oregan has a deep bench of popular congressmen and state officials who can run, its just a question of whether Smith can act Lincoln Chafee enough to win

17) South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
If LG faces a tough primary, and even either barely escapes or loses, the mayor of Charleston is pretty popular statewide, Joseph Riley

18) Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)
Harold Ford or Tim McGraw might run, TM especially might give Lamar a run for his money
Gov. Bredesen would kick Lamar's ass but its going to be hard to convince a sitting governor to give up his position for a senate run

19) Texas (John Cornyn)
Henry Cuellar looks like the best D runner, but if Hillary is nominated its over for him unless hispanic women come out in droves

20) Virginia (John Warner)
Mark Warner almost beat him when M Warner wasn't the super-popular ex-governor, if JW retires it'd be Mark Warner's for the taking, but even if he stays its hard for someone approaching his 80s to campaign hard against an experienced statewide Virginian politician who is so popular
Lt. General Claudia Kennedy would be an interesting challenge if MW decides on a later governor's run or a VP slot

21) Wyoming (Mike Enzi)
Real mystery if we can get any candidate who can seriously challenge a GOPer in an election year
Trauner looks good on paper because he won basically half the wyoming vote, but it was against a total dick of a GOPer


I bolded 5 seats it looks like we're going to pickup

56 Democrat Senate + Specter + Snowe + Collins + Hagel + Voinovich = 61 votes to break a filibuster...take one off as neccesary

However, if Clark/some moderate runs and people start retiring, I can easily see ME, ID, MS, NC, VA and possibly AK, GA

Thats not +5, that's +10-12
+10, ofcourse, would be a filibuster proof majority

With Progressive Clark as president, a progressive house and filibuster proof senate...hello Universal Healthcare, tax hikes on the rich, more Ginsburg-like Justices for a new liberal court, huge educatio spending to make every public HS in america just like the nicest one in NoVA, signing Kyoto, huge funding into green technology, carbon-nuetral tech, and stem cell research and ofcourse restore our rights Bush took from us...and then when the dust has settled and people realize how happy they are and how much the GOP screwed up in their revolution, we get to real griddy tasks of massively expanding Welfare and making it law that everyone who wants to work will get job training and a job

Democrats:

SD Tim Johnson's stroke and recovery combined with his legendary nice character will make Rounds unlikely to challenge him, and without him there are no serious challengers

NJ Lautenburg has a fair chance to retire but as we've seen in the past, NJ hates Republican Senate nominees...even those facing seemingly corrupt Democrats

LA Landrieu...the only real race, and yeah she's probably going to lose but besides being pretty she didn't offer much, it's like if our NE Democrat lost...yeah we could use the seat but I'm not going to break out the tissues

but cmon who wants to get rid of the one babe of the senate?
We could hold the seat...in theory

The rest, we're not going to lose (unless things really shake up), way too popular and the GOP is completely inept at getting challengers...even if they did...they'd lose

[AntiCentrist]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

3) Colorado (Wayne Allard)
If he runs he's toast, Udall would wipe the floor with him like Brown did with DeWine

Sen. Allard has previously committed to not seeking a 3rd term, so in the event he keeps his word, I think Rep. Tom Tancredo will run in and easily win the Republican Senatorial primary. I agree that an Allard/Udall race favors Udall to an unusual degree for a Senatorial challenger, but I think Tancredo will be a much more difficult candidate to beat. If I had to bet money on it today, in fact, I'd bet that Tancredo would not lose to Udall.

[AntiCentrist]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

LA Landrieu...the only real race, and yeah she's probably going to lose but besides being pretty she didn't offer much, it's like if our NE Democrat lost...yeah we could use the seat but I'm not going to break out the tissues

but cmon who wants to get rid of the one babe of the senate?

I wouldn't say her lowest-common-denominator brand of beauty rates as high as "babe" status. She's sorta cute, but not nearly so much as Maria Cantwell of Washington state....

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by AntiCentrist

I wouldn't say her lowest-common-denominator brand of beauty rates as high as "babe" status. She's sorta cute, but not nearly so much as Maria Cantwell of Washington state....

who i'd mention is also a democratic...and BTW check out the 2004 and 2006 dem numbers before you start talking about Tancredo having a chance at a statewide office

[Thorgrim]

Tancredo is a radical, and only his ultra-republican district likes him

Where do you get your information from Colorado...from your own personal beliefs?

It was unquestionable that the tougher candidate on immigration was not Democrat Ritter, yet the Democrat won by 17+ points it was a total blow out as a supporter of the guest worker program

[AntiCentrist]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

Tancredo is a radical, and only his ultra-republican district likes him

I doubt that's the case, and its not like there are all that many districts in Colorado; his one district constitutes a substantial portion of the entire state (and I doubt its the only conservative district in Colorado).

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

It was unquestionable that the tougher candidate on immigration was not Democrat Ritter, yet the Democrat won by 17+ points it was a total blow out as a supporter of the guest worker program

People who voted Democrat in that election aren't necessarily going to do so in every future election. If a doofus like Bob Dole would carry Colorado in '96, and Bush caried it twice after that, its clearly not the Republican killing field you're making it out to be. And immigration is a much bigger issue today than back during whatever election you're talking about, and will loom even larger come 2008.

[Thorgrim]

Ok, I finished my first round, comments would be apprecieted...criticisms so I can improve it, and compliments on things so I know to keep them

FAQ:

Why don't you have Sen. Pryor in the competitive section, he's a Democrat in a red state? Looks like liberal bias...
The Republicans couldn't even get a challenger, Pryor is going to run unopposed, but this should have been a ranked race...but the deadline is over.

Democrats like Tom Harkin get closer races, yet you put Mitch McConnel higher than him? Oh, more liberal bias!
Harkin always wins and he's not an unpopular guy, while in Kentucky you have a GOP crisis...in Iowa they just elected a completely Democratic state government...trust me there are reasons for every ranking

Look at all these blank spaces, once you get to Susan Collins, it's essential a throw away line...you call this a serious Senate coverage?
There are simply too many variables for me to write up a complex history, the presidential race and many other factors mean I might have to significantly change ranks 4-14 around almost every month

[SoFlaJDM]

aah... it's that time again


i love these threads... they only mean 1 thing:




even more victories for the dems

[garbagemanlb]

Smith is screwed in Oregon. He has pissed off the conservatives while trying to inch towards the mainstream on the Iraq war issue, and definately has not won the support of any liberals by his blatant pandering.

Can't wait for two Democratic senators.

[JaJae]

I'm from NJ and you hit the nail on the head, Lautenberg would need a miracle to lose at this point. It's sad, he recently blamed the bridge falling on George Bush. Talk radio though is expected to scream against him in NJ for the upcoming election. His biggest threat at this point is probably NJ101.5 FM. NJ101.5 is talk radio, a very widely listened to radio station. They're not a political station, but they do talk politics when the time arises and they usually take strong stances against the current Democrats in office. Other than that he's a pretty good lock I would think. I wouldn't really call them a Republican station, one guy identifies himself as a libertarian, but the rest dislike both parties ideologies as much as the other, they're just sick of the corruption/spending and for the most part they're just anti-incumbent.

NJ101.5 has been working hand in hand with the NJ Herald (not a large newspaper) and gaining a lot of political clout in the state. They may actually have the power to turn an election if the race would normally be close.

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by JaJae

I'm from NJ and you hit the nail on the head, Lautenberg would need a miracle to lose at this point. It's sad, he recently blamed the bridge falling on George Bush. Talk radio though is expected to scream against him in NJ for the upcoming election. His biggest threat at this point is probably NJ101.5 FM. NJ101.5 is talk radio, a very widely listened to radio station. They're not a political station, but they do talk politics when the time arises and they usually take strong stances against the current Democrats in office. Other than that he's a pretty good lock I would think. I wouldn't really call them a Republican station, one guy identifies himself as a libertarian, but the rest dislike both parties ideologies as much as the other, they're just sick of the corruption/spending and for the most part they're just anti-incumbent.

NJ101.5 has been working hand in hand with the NJ Herald (not a large newspaper) and gaining a lot of political clout in the state. They may actually have the power to turn an election if the race would normally be close.

I told you last time, there's only one thing New Jersey hates (as a whole) more than its corrupt Democrats, and thats Republicans

sorry i haven't been updating but real life is a lot busier than the amount of posting I do would indicate

[Thorgrim]

The call for a small Iraqi troop reduction by Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) strengthens the belief that he soon will announce that he is not seeking re-election next year. His probable successor is former Gov. Mark Warner (D). Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008.

-Robert Novak

If the GOP is preparing already for -4...when things are looking not so horrible for the GOP (recession avoided, surge might be spinned nicely, hillary might win the nod and bring down other Dem races)

If I had to guess now I'm guessing (in order) the GOP is planning on losing:
New Hampshire (Sununu faces a Santorum situation if Shaheen runs)
Colorado (Open, Allard has retired)
Virginia (Open, Warner has retired)
Minnesota (Coleman won in a huge GOP year on what many Democrats see as a fluke, they are really out to win this seat, and Minnesota just gave a double digit victory to an open Senate seat in 2006...a blue state)

Sorry for no updates but basically all these races are waiting on some decent polling or news (retirements, investigations)

Big News is that John Warner retired, and Craig is on resign-watch

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

-Robert Novak

If the GOP is preparing already for -4...when things are looking not so horrible for the GOP (recession avoided, surge might be spinned nicely, hillary might win the nod and bring down other Dem races)

If I had to guess now I'm guessing (in order) the GOP is planning on losing:
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia
Minnesota

Sorry for no updates but basically all these races are waiting on some decent polling or news (retirements, investigations)

which means they will probably lose more... remember what they were saying before the '06 elections?

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

which means they will probably lose more... remember what they were saying before the '06 elections?

Ofcourse I do

This is from Fox News's big political roundup show, that is supposed give the best predictions (in conservative circles) and here is what they said AFTER Foley, right before the elections:

Originally Posted by Fred Barnes

Look, McGavick is the best candidate Republicans can have. I - I - I think if there is a tilt at all for Republicans - nationally, a Republican trend at the end, he can upset her. And will upset her.

All right. So here are our bottom-line predictions for the House and Senate; change - changed slightly this week.

In the House, I think Democrats will pick up 13 seats, two shy of what they need for takeover. Mort says Democrats plus 17, giving them a two-seat majority. Now we've each added one seat to the Democrats because of Mark Foley, the congressman from Florida resigning suddenly in a flap over some e-mails he sent to a - a teenage boy.

And in the Senate, I say Democrats pick up three seats; Mort says four seats. We both think Republicans will maintain control.

[SoFlaJDM]

things are looking a lot better... for the dems


i think i'm gonna do an update in honor of thor

[SoFlaJDM]

Republican Seats in Jeopardy:

Alaska (Stevens) need i say more?

Colorado (open) an increasingly blue state... the departing republican senator has a negative net approval rating... could be anyone's race at this point

Idaho (Craig)

Maine (Collins) She represents a dying breed: Republicans in the Northeast... depending on how much she decides to tow the party line, things could end up in her favor, or against her

Minnesota (Coleman) Another increasingly left-leaning state... Coleman won his election after the Dem candidate was killed in a plane crash... Walter Mondale was thrown in the race at the last moment, but couldn't pull it off against Coleman... maybe with more preperation, the dems can do it.

New Hampshire (Sununu) Sununu knows that the race will be a lot closer than the 4% margin he won by last time given the attitude of moderates as shown in the polls recently.

New Mexico (Domenici) If the democrats push hard enough about the fact that he tried to get David Iglesias fired for not prosecuting Democrats vigorously enough.

Oklahoma(Inhoffe) contemplating retirement

Oregon (Smith) oregon is increasingly leaning left

South Carolina (Graham)

Tennessee (Alexander) Who knows, Harold Ford Jr. might be successful this time

Virginia (Warner) John Warner is gone, so Mark Warner is looking rather promising for another seat pickup

[SoFlaJDM]

Democratic Seats in Jeopardy:

[SoFlaJDM]

Unfortunately, Domenici-NM just announced he has a brain disease and that he's not running for another term. i wanted him out of office, but not on these terms.

he's a 6 term senator, it's gonna be interesting to see who the GOP puts in the race.