Democrats upbeat, eye bigger majority in US Congress

[Ron Burgundy]

AFP - Opposition Democrats are upbeat about the odds of boosting majorities they won in Congress in 2008, and see a promising sign in the election of a Democrat to replace the Republican former House leader.

"This is going to be a Democratic year," Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean glowed on learning that Democrat Bill Foster last Saturday had won the seat held for 20 years by Republican Dennis Hastert, a Republican Party bigwig.

All of the House of Representatives 435 seats are up for grabs in November, as are 23 posts in the 100-seat Senate.

And for now, things are looking up for the Democrats: 47 percent of Americans now describe themselves as Democrats, compared to just 35 percent who say they are Republicans, according to a poll out Thursday by The Wall Street Journal. It gave outgoing Republican President George W. Bush a 32 percent approval rating.

And fundraising is going well. House and Senate Democrats since 2007 have raised 42 million dollars more than their Republican counterparts for reelection races and new candidates' campaigns.

Republicans above all are being battered by a wave of voluntary departures. While some are targeted by legal action, others apparently do not want to fall by the wayside if in fact the winds are changing: six Republican senators among the 22 whose seats are in play this year have said they would not seek new terms.

In the House, 28 of 198 Republican representatives have opted not to seek reelection.

Democrats, who now control 233 House seats, see it as the best of omens that they have snatched the seat held by Hastert, who was House Speaker from 1999-2006.

"There was a huge election ... in Illinois where we took Denny Hastert's seat back," Dean said. "If we can take Denny Hastert's seat back in Congress, you know people really want a change."

Independent political analyst Charlie Cook estimates that half the seats where candidates are not seeking reelection could possibly go to the Democrats, and that about 20 outgoing Republicans were at risk of losing their seats.

Democrats are also optimistic about increasing their heft in the Senate; they now have the narrowest of majorities (51 of 100 seats). They also at times can count on the support of Republican-turned-independent Joseph Lieberman, a supporter of Republican John McCain for president.

The context for the Democrats also is positive in that none of their 12 senators whose terms are up is seriously threatened.

Many Republican-held seats in contrast appear to have potential to swing to the other major party, starting with the seat of John Warner, 81, a former head of the armed forces committee who, after his state of Virginia elected a Democratic governor and senator decided not to run again.

Democrats, it would appear, do not have much to worry about this year.

So the last thing they want muddling their progress is the possibility of Republican John McCain winning the White House. That could end up subsequently bringing in more Republican lawmakers to Congress on his coattails.

It is not an outlandish hypothesis by any means: recent polls by RealClearPolitics have given Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton a lead of just 1.5 percent over the Arizona senator.

What's more Democrats have to worry about the battle between Clinton and Obama dragging on and on, perhaps through June. Thirty-eight percent believe the delay in having the Democratic candidate decided is bad for the November presidential race, compared to 25 percent who said it was a plus.

The outgoing Congress enjoys little popular support. More than two thirds of Americans (69 percent) are unhappy with lawmakers' performance. It also has been hampered by the president's veto power and hamstrung by the Democrats' narrow majority.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080316/pl_afp/usvotedemocratscongress [link]