How long will the Dems allow this to drag out?

TankRizzo · 03-20-2008, 10:55 AM

I think one thing is clear in all of this, Howard Dean is a pretty shitty leader. He's done nothing more than play the role of a spectator. He hasn't done anything to take control or even attempt to work for a solution to this. There's a decent possibility that neither can get enough delegates to secure the nomination potentially dragging this up to the convention.

If it comes to a super delegate vote, things could get really ugly for the party. But if you stop and look back at the states that were won by whom, Obama doesn't have many of his huge wins in any particularly sexy states as far as the election is concerned.

So how and when do you think this madness will end?

kinggovernor · 03-20-2008, 11:01 AM

the problem is that the Clintons have always been larger than Dean thus he can't them to STFU. Now that Obama has passed by Clinton, Dean loses even more standing.

I believe the madness will end in a court battle

Thorgrim · 03-20-2008, 11:06 AM

What do you honestly think Howard Dean should do...can you even point to one other example where two candidates were basically tied with delegates...neither side wants a joint ticket (especially Obama)...and a DNC chair fixed it?

Please, one fucking example

Well, this week has gone pretty well as far as democratic unity is concerned...Obama was dealing with Wright all week...Hillary was trying to campaign around PA...no fights, civil towards each other...

If that kind of civility continues, who cares it goes to June...now September is another story but I don't think the superdelegates will allow that to happen

Unless ofcourse they strike a deal, Hillary "suspends her campaign" and Obama starts relaxing and fundraising to prepare for the GE, and then Hillary is there incase his poll numbers suck through the summer and into September, and Hillary is seen as CLEARLY more electable

motivez · 03-20-2008, 11:20 AM

I'm not sure it's the worst thing in the world if it gets dragged out as long as things remain civil

McCain is going to have to find ways to keep himself in the news, Hillary and Obama will be getting a lot of free press for upcoming primaries, coverage of the delegate counts, what happens in a locked convention, etc..

I think it's clear that if it goes to convention, Obama will be the nominee.. I don't see thuper-delegates overturning the popular vote AND the pledged delegates tbh.

I also think there will be increasing calls for Hillary to step aside unless she manages to get it pretty close in the delegate counts

And, I'm not sure (though Thorgrim has posted some interesting analysis with respect to Ohio) that not winning the primary race in the states that are important in the general election is that important

How many Democrats or Independents who lean heavily towards wanting a Democrat in the White House wont vote D regardless of who the nominee is?

I think if you have a candidate that loses, say, California in the primary, it's not something that's automatic to say they somehow wont win it in the general election.

TankRizzo · 03-20-2008, 11:24 AM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

What do you honestly think Howard Dean should do...can you even point to one other example where two candidates were basically tied with delegates...neither side wants a joint ticket (especially Obama)...and a DNC chair fixed it?

Please, one fucking example

Well, this week has gone pretty well as far as democratic unity is concerned...Obama was dealing with Wright all week...Hillary was trying to campaign around PA...no fights, civil towards each other...

If that kind of civility continues, who cares it goes to June...now September is another story but I don't think the superdelegates will allow that to happen

Unless ofcourse they strike a deal, Hillary "suspends her campaign" and Obama starts relaxing and fundraising to prepare for the GE, and then Hillary is there incase his poll numbers suck through the summer and into September, and Hillary is seen as CLEARLY more electable

He's letting them bicker over MI and FL. In the best interest of the party he should step in and say they violated rules and it had been agreed on that they are out of play and to move on. Those two states are a no win situation for the party. If you flatly say they're off the table, then that's it. Otherwise they can re-vote or delegate count until their hearts are content and everyone will feel free to speculate a plethora of "what ifs".

hsmith · 03-20-2008, 11:24 AM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

What do you honestly think Howard Dean should do...can you even point to one other example where two candidates were basically tied with delegates...neither side wants a joint ticket (especially Obama)...and a DNC chair fixed it?

Please, one fucking example

Well, this week has gone pretty well as far as democratic unity is concerned...Obama was dealing with Wright all week...Hillary was trying to campaign around PA...no fights, civil towards each other...

If that kind of civility continues, who cares it goes to June...now September is another story but I don't think the superdelegates will allow that to happen

Unless ofcourse they strike a deal, Hillary "suspends her campaign" and Obama starts relaxing and fundraising to prepare for the GE, and then Hillary is there incase his poll numbers suck through the summer and into September, and Hillary is seen as CLEARLY more electable

you think civility had anything to do with this last week of them not attacking each other? Hillary knew not to touch that issue with a 10 foot pole.

She has a 20%+ lead in PA, she doesn't need to attack him, he is on the downside there.

TankRizzo · 03-20-2008, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by hsmith

you think civility had anything to do with this last week of them not attacking each other? Hillary knew not to touch that issue with a 10 foot pole.

She has a 20%+ lead in PA, she doesn't need to attack him, he is on the downside there.

That too. What's the white lady going to say about rev. Wright that isn't going to make her look bad?

Obama should have been out in western PA trying to win the votes of the coal and steel union workers because he's going to need them later down the line in other states like WV.

kinggovernor · 03-20-2008, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

What do you honestly think Howard Dean should do...can you even point to one other example where two candidates were basically tied with delegates...neither side wants a joint ticket (especially Obama)...and a DNC chair fixed it?

Please, one fucking example

why not have a superdelegate "primary" before the convention

TankRizzo · 03-20-2008, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

why not have a superdelegate "primary" before the convention

I have a feeling that will either end up a shit storm and in litigation.

Thorgrim · 03-20-2008, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by TankRizzo

He's letting them bicker over MI and FL. In the best interest of the party he should step in and say they violated rules and it had been agreed on that they are out of play and to move on. Those two states are a no win situation for the party. If you flatly say they're off the table, then that's it. Otherwise they can re-vote or delegate count until their hearts are content and everyone will feel free to speculate a plethora of "what ifs".

It's impossible for him to control state legislatures from trying to get another vote through, or considering it...he said it wouldn't count and they voted anyway, why would they listen this time?

JaJae · 03-20-2008, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

It's impossible for him to control state legislatures from trying to get another vote through, or considering it...he said it wouldn't count and they voted anyway, why would they listen this time?

It's not impossible for him to control the state legislatures from "trying to get another vote through" but it is entirely possible for him to tell them he won't consider it. Which he hasn't done.

JaJae · 03-20-2008, 12:53 PM

Originally Posted by motivez

McCain is going to have to find ways to keep himself in the news, Hillary and Obama will be getting a lot of free press for upcoming primaries, coverage of the delegate counts, what happens in a locked convention, etc..

But it has been mostly negative press for both candidates. That's the problem. McCain is starting to pull away from them in the polls. They're slowly destructing themselves. If this goes on until June it's very possible the Democrats will have thrown away this election the GOP.

The only viable solution I see is having all the superdelegates vote before June. Set a date and make em vote. Person who has the most delegates after the superdelegates vote wins (as long as they have the minimum needed for nomination).

JaJae · 03-20-2008, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by hsmith

you think civility had anything to do with this last week of them not attacking each other? Hillary knew not to touch that issue with a 10 foot pole.

She has a 20%+ lead in PA, she doesn't need to attack him, he is on the downside there.

She's pushing it to the superdelegates. She's calling them up saying the Wright issue will hurt Obama and so they should vote for her if they want to win. She's not pushing it publicly, but she is pushing it privately.

7960 · 03-20-2008, 12:59 PM

I think it's funny that on one side hillary says this is her campaign and she's not bill and all that rhetoric, but then when someone asked if she's going to drop out her very first words were "My husband didn't get the nomination wrapped up until June."

7960 · 03-20-2008, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

But it has been mostly negative press for both candidates. That's the problem. McCain is starting to pull away from them in the polls. They're slowly destructing themselves. If this goes on until June it's very possible the Democrats will have thrown away this election the GOP.

The only viable solution I see is having all the superdelegates vote before June. Set a date and make em vote. Person who has the most delegates after the superdelegates vote wins (as long as they have the minimum needed for nomination).

If they do this they should make sure it happens before 4:30pm so the lawyers for the losing side have time to file the lawsuit before the courthouse closes at 5.

JaJae · 03-20-2008, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by 7960

I think it's funny that on one side hillary says this is her campaign and she's not bill and all that rhetoric, but then when someone asked if she's going to drop out her very first words were "My husband didn't get the nomination wrapped up until June."

He didn't start campaigning as early as she did. Hillary and Obama have been campaigning longer than any other Democratic candidates for the nomination in America's history.

7960 · 03-20-2008, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

He didn't start campaigning as early as she did. Hillary and Obama have been campaigning longer than any other Democratic candidates for the nomination in America's history.

that's part of it. the other part she's not saying is:

"My husband didn't get the nomination wrapped up until June. That has been the tradition," Clinton told reporters, though she failed to note that the primaries when he first ran in 1992 were much more spread out. As of today, well over half the states have voted, awarding more than 80% of delegates to the party's national nominating convention.

Ohio, Texas wins boost Clinton - Los Angeles Times

JaJae · 03-20-2008, 01:07 PM

This is the result of this dragging on and the "civil" debate and media exposure Hillary and Obama are receiving.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

McCain 51% Clinton 41%
McCain 49% Obama 42%

They can't keep this going if they want to win. They're only getting negative press while McCain is just skating by.

7960 · 03-20-2008, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

This is the result of this dragging on and the "civil" debate and media exposure Hillary and Obama are receiving.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

They can't keep this going if they want to win. They're only getting negative press while McCain is just skating by.

The longer this goes on...the longer they're fighting over the nomination while mccain's name stays out of the press...the better chance mccain will win.

Mccain and his people are smart. They sent him to iraq for a feel-good mission to get his name on the front page. So he get free press without having to take a question about his candidacy. The dems are fucking up, big time.

Howard Dean is a pretty shitty leader.

Truer words were never spoken.