Al-Sadr's 9 point plan, a victory or defeat in Basra?

[Thorgrim]

Al-Maliki and Al-Sadr worked out a deal today, Al-Sadr has outlined a supposed 9 point plan they have agrred to...which IMO, is a huge victory to Al-Sadr, as one can remember when the Iraqi populance started to turn on him over the Najaf flare-up, while this time public opinion was on his side, but it was not overwhelming, and with the US Airforce and Special Forces coming and taking the place for a faultering Iraqi Army, it started to look like the slow loss in 2004

The following is resolved:

(1) Ending armed manifestations in the governate of Basra and all the other governates

(2) Ending of attacks and arbitrary illegal arrests

(3) Demand on the government to apply the law on general amnesty, and release all prisoners who had not had charges confirmed against them, and particularly prisoners belonging to the Sadrist trend

(4) We announce that we will renounce those who carry weapons and target the government and service agencies and institutions, or [political] party offices

(5) Cooperation with government agencies to bring about security and to charge those who commit crimes, according to legal [qanuniya] process

(6) We affirm that the Sadrist movement does not possess heavy weapons

(7) Efforts for the return to their residential areas of those who were forced out on account of security incidents

(8) We demand respect for human rights by the government in all of its security actions

(9) Working for the realization of development and services projects in all governates

Arabic: äÕ ÈíÇä ÓãÇÍÉ ÇáÓíÏ ÇáÞÇÆÏ ÇáãÝÏì ãÞÊÏì ÇáÕÏÑ ( ÏÇã ÚÒå ) Íæá ÇáÇÍÏÇË ÇáÇÎíÑÉ Ýí ãÏíäÉ ÇáÈÕÑÉ æÈÇÞí ãÍÇÝÙÇÊ ÇáÚÑÇÞ.
English: missing links: Text of the Sadr cease-fire statement

IMO, Al-Sadr clearly won, by being the person coming forward to offer peace, and there being no significant military losses by the Mahdi Army in the past 48 hours, he is seen as someone who values Iraqi lives more than anyone else

Al-Maliki is lifting the curfew and talking about the end of violence, but is still trying to save face, he hasn't mentioned all of the points and there is talk there may still be a government crackdown on some parts

Politically, besides what I said above, if he gets his supporters released and is left alone, he is looking in great shape for the elections by province this year, and ofcourse down the road he could be the one running parliament

Ofcourse, all compromises have a downside, people were talking as if the Iraq Army might fall apart, and now what do those people who left the army to join Al-Sadr do? I guess they go on the payrolls but that can't make them, or the more militant members, very happy

Where this is going remains to be seen, but I'd give round 1 and 2 to Al-Sadr, who knows if there will be a round 3 and what it will mean

I've seen some right-wing blogs act like it's a huge American victory, I really don't see that...the Maliki government is again on the brink of falling, the US forces were not able to get into the 70% of the Mahdi controlled Basra...Al-Sadr is being celebrated by those who didn't take sides or even had leaned towards the government

What do you think?

[Donkey®]

I can't recall a time where "the bad guys" setting up the rules for peace went over well with our government. What happened to "we don't negotiate with terrorists?"