Why Obama is going to have problems this year: Race Chasm

[Thorgrim]

I've said this before, so I don't need a huge discussion to start one

1) Obame does well in "A" States...states with a large black population

2) Obama does well in "B" States....states with a minimal in basically non-existant black population

3) Obama does poorly in "C" States...states with a significant but not large minority population

Why? Explain. Discuss.

Me?
-I think it's because people in B states are so far removed from blacks that they have no real racism when they vote...they don't really blame blacks for anything because to have a scapegoat you need to actually see them, at least on your local news
-People in A states have primaries with so many African Americans are actually pretty close as a party and deal with one another on a frequent enough basis that there is no real distrust within those democratic parties of blacks vs whites/etc...and any candidate who can get 80% of the majority black vote wins by default anyway
-People in C states know black people, and deal with them, but all to many only from a distance, what they hear on TV, what they saw some teens doing a few times...since they don't interact with blacks on many civic levels, they don't really identify...this is why people in B states see Rev. Wright and go "oh my, what is talking about" and are quick to dismiss it when Obama made "the speech" and people in A states have the Huckabee approach where even red-meat conservatives understand the frustration blacks are going through...however people in C states see it as common black outrage, another sore spot on their community that they've been dealing with their whole life, and as something that is never going to go away, they were never likely to vote black anyway

If this is a problem with people left of center, how do you think right of center will handle it? From what I've seen of current state polling...not too well...Obama is getting housed in states like VA, MO, TN, OH...and even in usually reliable states like NJ, CT...he is facing problems, I think one poll even saw a problem in ultra-liberal MA...why? Because they are C states, in the race chasm chart shown above

Yet in more white states, oddly enough, like Washington and Minnesota, he has kept his lead

And in more black states like Maryland (DC isn't a state but that as well) he has kept his lead as well

Very bad for Obama...is Clinton the answer? No and that is not the point of this thread...the point of this thread is to:
A) Identify the problem
B) Discuss it

[JaJae]

I'm from NJ, which is what you consider a "C" state. I have so say I disagree with your analysis and don't think it's true for NJ. There are other issues at play here than just % of blacks. I also noticed your graph is missing key states, probably states that go against what it's trying to prove. It's also interesting that states like Florida were included. Wyoming recently voted so the the graph must have been made recently, which leaves me pondering as to why 25% of the states that have voted have been systematically removed from your graph.

Until we have a more accurate view of the situation I think it's pretty premature to start making estimates as to why this is happening. Also the percentages of win/loss in these states is inaccurate according to CNN.

For reference, this is his David Sirota's blog on his graph.
David Sirota: NEW REPORT: The Race Chasm & the Clinton Firewall - Politics on The Huffington Post

[David Octavius]

That graph means diddly squat - NJ, MA and RI will go blue in the general regardless of who is the democratic candidate

[Ardentfrost]

Here's the question: in the "race chasm" states, how many people who went Hilary would simply NOT go Obama given the choice between him and McCain? The two big states in there are Ohio and Florida... TN will likely go red, and the other are either blue and/or low electorate states.

And all the rich white people in CT will think it's fun to vote for a black guy come November

[David Octavius]

The Dems are going to vote for their candidate regardless and so will the reps, the "swing vote" is the important factor and I think Obama has a better shot at getting them then Hillary