Why Global Warming hasn't caused a spike in hurricanses this year

Thorgrim · 09-13-2006, 06:05 PM

El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season milder than expected, said a NOAA forecaster.

"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.

CNN.com - El Nino*forms in Pacific Ocean - Sep 13, 2006

Pretty clear cut science, el nino always cuts those hurricanes we've been looking for, but will have implications world wide, and so anarchy for the US is put off for a few more years, hopefully in that time we'll continue to gain scientific insight and start combating global warming before its too late and a vicious cycle that feeds itself starts

7960 · 09-13-2006, 06:10 PM

of course....... radical, irresponsible scientists make a claim and when it doesn't pan out they say "well, there are other factors but BUSH IS STILL CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING WITH HIS WAR FOR OIL IN IRAQ

"

Diesel66 · 09-13-2006, 06:50 PM

or like everyone else that has any intellegence has said. 2005 was just a fluke season.

If global warming was increasing the hurricane season every year, the records the 2005 season broke would have all been from the last 10 years or so. But the records went all the way back to the 1930s

WickedLou9 · 09-13-2006, 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by Diesel66

or like everyone else that has any intellegence has said. 2005 was just a fluke season.

If global warming was increasing the hurricane season every year, the records the 2005 season broke would have all been from the last 10 years or so. But the records went all the way back to the 1930s

on what science did you base that conclusion?

Diesel66 · 09-13-2006, 07:49 PM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

on what science did you base that conclusion?

The 20-30 year cycles in the hurricane season. The fact it was a random bump in the history of hurricanes.

deadliest hurricanes
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0778120.html
Now some of them could be more deadly early on because of no warnings. But then they could be more deadly today because of more people.

Most intense hurricanes
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0778121.html

I love these stories
Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Study Says - News Release

the hurricanes are getting stronger since the 70s. Oh wait, the 70s were the low part of the cycle.

Image:Tropical atlantic cyclones 1944-2005.gif - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Total number is about the same. But check out the intense hurricanes (red) Big upsurge in the 50s, then a 30 year low point, then a big upswing in the 90s.

kinggovernor · 09-13-2006, 08:01 PM

this is why I have a hard part thinking that we are causing a global warming problem, if A happens it is because of global warming and if B happens then it is because of global warming

6SpeedTA95 · 09-13-2006, 09:26 PM

Good Lord can you say grasping?

I find this stuff hilarious these same scientist new about a possible el nino and they still predicted significant hurricane activity...it hasn't panned out so their desperate for excuses, especially after the loads of bullshit they spouted last year about global warming and tropical activity.

lew · 09-13-2006, 10:08 PM

Thorgrim · 09-13-2006, 10:33 PM

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

Good Lord can you say grasping?

I find this stuff hilarious these same scientist new about a possible el nino and they still predicted significant hurricane activity...it hasn't panned out so their desperate for excuses, especially after the loads of bullshit they spouted last year about global warming and tropical activity.

You know, laughing and just saying someone is full of shit and throwing in a bunch of term does != a devastating attack

Thorgrim · 09-13-2006, 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by Diesel66

The 20-30 year cycles in the hurricane season. The fact it was a random bump in the history of hurricanes.

deadliest hurricanes
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0778120.html
Now some of them could be more deadly early on because of no warnings. But then they could be more deadly today because of more people.

Most intense hurricanes
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0778121.html

I love these stories
Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Study Says - News Release

the hurricanes are getting stronger since the 70s. Oh wait, the 70s were the low part of the cycle.

Image:Tropical atlantic cyclones 1944-2005.gif - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Total number is about the same. But check out the intense hurricanes (red) Big upsurge in the 50s, then a 30 year low point, then a big upswing in the 90s.

This proves nothing

There is a basic fact...warmer waters help hurricanes

Global warming makes for warmer waters

its easy as pie, its just like with the ozone, but just like in the 80s, everyone laughs at you until we ignore you and go over your head and solve it ourselves

WickedLou9 · 09-13-2006, 10:35 PM

Yeah global warming is a myth made up by crazy liberals.

Climate Change news from Yahoo! News

Arctic sea ice in winter is melting far faster than before, two new NASA studies reported Wednesday, a new and alarming trend that researchers say threatens the ocean's delicate ecosystem. Scientists point to the sudden and rapid melting as a sure sign of man-made global warming.

Thorgrim · 09-13-2006, 10:36 PM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

Yeah global warming is a myth made up by crazy liberals.

Climate Change news from Yahoo! News

We all know NASA and reality have a well known liberal bias

6SpeedTA95 · 09-13-2006, 10:51 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

You know, laughing and just saying someone is full of shit and throwing in a bunch of term does != a devastating attack

Say what?

Dude look up the el nino years and their strength. Look up the number and strength of hurricanes in those years. This years el nino is weak, this years temperature, SST, and TCHP are extremely high in the atlantic basin. Why haven't there been more hurricanes? Well in some cases conditions aren't/haven't been ripe in others, scientist honestly DO NOT KNOW!

6SpeedTA95 · 09-13-2006, 11:35 PM

The Most Intense Hurricanes in the United States 1851-2004

Thats a list of the most powerful LANDFALLING hurricanes in US history. That means strength at landfall. Note that this list only goes to 2004, however, the katrina/rita jury is still out. Katrina and Rita were rather odd storms with much slower wind speeds than the central pressure would have indicated. Some say the dropsonde was perhaps damaged in the drop before Katrina's landfall, others think the extrapolated and/or estimated pressures were just flat wrong with that storm. The same can be said for RITA which came ashore with 937mb central pressure...fairly low given its wind speed.

This next one is US strikes by decade...
U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade

On an interesting note, the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 is reguarded by many to be the strongest ever recorded. With todays much more accurate technology many speculate that it would have recorded and even lower central pressure when it was out to sea. The landfall pressure was 892mb's with winds estimated at close to 200 mph.

Thorgrim · 09-13-2006, 11:41 PM

You act like a central tenet of global warming is hurricanes have to be x strength at y times at z location

7960 · 09-13-2006, 11:46 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

You act like a central tenet of global warming is hurricanes have to be x strength at y times at z location

and you act like the information from your one guy is more important than all the other information posted............... sure there are 10 people posting stats about hurricanes that disagrees with you but YOUR guy is RIGHT!

6SpeedTA95 · 09-13-2006, 11:49 PM

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

You act like a central tenet of global warming is hurricanes have to be x strength at y times at z location

So do the facts just completely escape you or what? Read the links, educate yourself on tropical activity, patterns and history before trying to link it with global warming.

The fact is this is a very busy decade for tropical cyclone activity, but looking back through the history of these storms you can see we've had busy times in the past. You can also see there's been some significant storms throughout modern history many of which were PRIOR to the 1970s (al gore's decade of choice for pointing to increased global warming).

The fact is we still do not know exactly what causes a hurricane and how they form. We understand the basics, we understand partially whats at play. Hell they didn't link ocean temps and hurricanes till I believe 1986 so we've got a lot left to learn. Pretending facts dont exist to support a global warming agenda or using statistics that are inconclusive to draw a parallel between global warming and hurricanes is far reaching at best.

Finally, you're the one that started a thread about global warming and hurricanes, so I'd say this data should do quite nicely for this thread.

Thorgrim · 09-14-2006, 12:16 AM

Originally Posted by 7960

and you act like the information from your one guy is more important than all the other information posted............... sure there are 10 people posting stats about hurricanes that disagrees with you but YOUR guy is RIGHT!

I don't see a contradiction

Thorgrim · 09-14-2006, 12:19 AM

Originally Posted by 6SpeedTA95

So do the facts just completely escape you or what? Read the links, educate yourself on tropical activity, patterns and history before trying to link it with global warming.

The fact is this is a very busy decade for tropical cyclone activity, but looking back through the history of these storms you can see we've had busy times in the past. You can also see there's been some significant storms throughout modern history many of which were PRIOR to the 1970s (al gore's decade of choice for pointing to increased global warming).

The fact is we still do not know exactly what causes a hurricane and how they form. We understand the basics, we understand partially whats at play. Hell they didn't link ocean temps and hurricanes till I believe 1986 so we've got a lot left to learn. Pretending facts dont exist to support a global warming agenda or using statistics that are inconclusive to draw a parallel between global warming and hurricanes is far reaching at best.

Finally, you're the one that started a thread about global warming and hurricanes, so I'd say this data should do quite nicely for this thread.

Again, this proves nothing

All scientists are doing (aka people who believe in gravity, evolution, global warming) is saying that global warming PROBABLY has an effect on hurricanes, and that effect is

a normal hurricane is x
with global warming its x+y

no one has made some scientific theory that says exactly what Y is...but you are trying to say that Y has to mean "the worst hurricanes will now happen...tommorow!"