No Rest for a Weary Chafee Following Primary Victory

[Ron Burgundy]

CQPolitics.com - National Republican Party officials on Wednesday hailed Sen. Lincoln Chafeeâ??s victory in Tuesdayâ??s Rhode Island primary as a triumph for the party, describing the center-left incumbentâ??s nomination as crucial to their hopes of holding the seat in a state that typically has a strong Democratic lean.

No Rest for a Weary Chafee Following Primary Victory

By Marie HorriganWed Sep 13, 8:16 PM ET

National Republican Party officials on Wednesday hailed Sen. Lincoln Chafee (news, bio, voting record)’s victory in Tuesday’s Rhode Island primary as a triumph for the party, describing the center-left incumbent’s nomination as crucial to their hopes of holding the seat in a state that typically has a strong Democratic lean.

The party establishment shared in Chafee’s celebration. It played a big role in his success by intervening, to a highly unusual extent, in an intraparty primary battle over ideology.

The GOP apparatus came down hard on the side of a center-left incumbent who often disagrees with President Bush and Senate Republican leaders — on issues ranging from the Iraq war to the environment to social issues such as abortion — but was deemed more “electable” than his more conservative challenger, Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey.

While boosting Chafee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) went all out to discredit and defeat Laffey, even though his campaign was predicated on his claim that he is a more faithful Republican than Chafee.

NRSC Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole, a senator from North Carolina, said Chafee’s 54 percent to 46 percent win over Laffey gave the outcome a broader meaning, describing it as a strong repudiation of the “anti-incumbent theme that’s being pushed by the pundits and by Democrats.”

“I think that the reason that Linc Chafee won is because all politics are local, and he is a perfect fit for the state of Rhode Island,” Dole said in a conference call with reporters Wednesday.

Republicans argue the party now has a chance to maintain control of the seat in a state where Democratic presidential candidates twice trounced George W. Bush, with John Kerry winning with 59 percent of the vote in 2004 and Al Gore taking 61 percent of the vote in 2000.

They contend that Chafee’s independent demeanor makes it possible for him to win the seat, while Laffey’s conservative agenda would have doomed him to failure in a November contest with the Democrats’ strong nominee, former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse.

“The chances for Republicans to keep the majority [in the Senate] just got a whole lot better thanks to the hard work of Linc Chafee and the support team around him,” Dole said.

In fact, Chafee appeared to have achieved his primary victory by targeting unaffiliated voters — they make up about 54 percent of the state’s electorate and can vote in either party’s primary — rather than the small but strongly conservative-leaning Republican voting base, which makes up about 10 percent.

The turnout of more than 64,000 voters in Tuesday’s Republican primary not only shattered the party’s record of 45,000, which occurred in 1994 — it was just less than the total of 69,000 registered Republican voters in the state.

Ian Lang, Chafee’s campaign chairman, told CQPolitics.com that Tuesday’s results were a “a resounding victory for Senator Chafee and really a testament to his honest, thoughtful, moderate leadership style. That was really nice to see that confirmed — pretty much overwhelmingly.”

Yet while Chafee’s win keeps the general election as a tossup race, the way in which he won also leaves some serious potential problems that his opponents will seek to exploit.

Some conservatives who don’t like Chafee’s voting record in the first place may be even more unreconciled to his primary win because of attacks against Laffey — including accusations that he raised taxes as mayor of Cranston — that even Chafee himself criticized toward the end of the campaign. Chafee’s gains among independent voters could be offset in the general election should many of Laffey’s backers decide to sit the election out rather than going with the Republican nominee.

Yet any effort by Chafee to rebuild bridges to the Republican right would give Democrats another issue to use against him.

Chafee’s reliance on the Republican Party machinery already will be emphasized by Whitehouse and his Democratic allies, who will argue that the Republicans want Chafee re-elected for one thing only: His vote, at the beginning of the next Congress, for a Republican leadership that will pursue an agenda Democrats say is far to the right of Chafee himself and Rhode Island voters in general.

They will try to persuade Democrats and independents to view Chafee as a tool of party conservatives, even if they generally view his personal record favorably.

It was an argument Whitehouse planned to hit hard in the first days of his general election campaigning. His campaign announced Wednesday it had released a 30-second spot titled “Think About It” that argues a Republican senator will perpetuate the Bush administration’s agenda. “To change America, we have to change the Senate,” the spot said.

In his own statement Wednesday, Whitehouse promised not to aid Bush’s policies. “Let me be clear: I will never cast that vote to empower the Bush agenda,” he said, allying himself with Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Jack Reed (news, bio, voting record) “to change Washington and fight for real solutions.”

Whitehouse’s campaign, meanwhile, touted the Democrat’s strong showing. He coasted to victory in his primary with more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined. Unofficial results from the state Board of Elections indicated Whitehouse received 69,159 votes vs. 34,873 for Chafee and 29,500 for Laffey.

Dole said it did not matter that Whitehouse won more votes than the Republican candidates, however, because GOP primary voters and Chafee supporters in the general election were not necessarily the same group.

“When you ID for a Republican primary, which is small — it’s a tiny primary, as you know, in Rhode Island — that’s quite different from ID’ing for a much broader general election in the state,” Dole said.

The more important indicator was independent polling which showed Chafee in a virtual dead heat with Whitehouse. Dole added that “a lot of the Democrats” would support the incumbent.

Democrats, however, said Tuesday’s results were a bad omen for Republicans no matter how they tried to portray it. Results in primaries in nine states across the country indicated support went to the candidates perceived as the most “anti-Bush,” New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer (news, bio, voting record), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. It was an “ominous sign for the GOP and a good sign for Democrats,” he said.

“Chafee’s victory will be spun as a victory by the Republicans in the short term, [but] the senator will soon find himself on the defensive and have to admit that he advances an unpopular Bush agenda when he votes for the GOP organizing resolution at the beginning of each Congress,” Schumer added.

One area of Chafee’s campaign that endured undoubted damage in the primary was his treasury.

Although Chafee faced a far more strenuous primary than Whitehouse, the candidates spent similar amounts through their primary races. As of Aug. 23, the last date in the pre-primary finance report, Chafee had spent $2.7 million and Whitehouse $2.6 million to combat their intraparty challengers — though Chafee’s need to shore up support in his more competitive primary’s final three weeks undoubtedly boosted his spending total.

Whitehouse, though, has enjoyed superior overall fundraising, leaving him far better positioned to start the general election campaign. Whitehouse, who raised $4.1 million over the course of his campaigning, had $1.5 million in cash on hand as of Aug. 23 while Chafee, who raised $2.9 million total, was left with $846,000.

Whitehouse’s strength appeared to be in soliciting individual contributions: As of Aug. 23 he had received $3.3 million from individual donors vs. $1.4 million for Chafee.

CQ rates the race as No Clear Favorite. Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races.