Obama's two electoral paths (that I see) *Pics*

[Thorgrim]

I see two paths, McCain winning big or Obama winning by a regular margin...to be honest there is a third path of an Obama blowout, but it seems to me the least likely at this point (with the well known race-affect of black candidates getting less than they polled for...) and with polling I've seen

So anyway, here is the way McCain wins big:



He pulls hard midwest, and loses Iowa like Kerry did, and that bare Wisconsin win Kerry pulled off, would flip to McCain, Pennsylvania is a real trouble spot for him, and we've seen polls showing him losing New Jersey because I think it's a very McCain friendly state...New Hampshire is ofcourse McCain Country, and he's pretty popular up there...overall it's a blowout




Here is the way Obama gets a win:



Obama wins all the Gore states by successfully framing this around the economy/war/etc, and Colorado has looked very nice to him from time to time, even though the latest poll had him tied and the rest are within the MoE, he could pick up Colorado, IMO much more likely than any other state, NM has it's entire congressional delegation (besides one sitting senator) up so it's going to be a huge dem turnout which I believe will bump Obama over the edge if things are going decent (which is a huge if)

Florida simply gets more and more Republican...Ohio had every county vote against him in the primary except a few that were basically ties, and he won one county by a decent margin: Cincinnati, but he had trouble in every other Ohio city, and ofcourse did terrible in rural/suburban Ohio...current polls show that even AFTER huge campaign effort that was not matched by McCain, he was still losing to him in Ohio, I don't know how that could get better for him, realistically, but politics is strange...if he can't win Ohio or Florida, all the other states have similiar or worse demographics for him...so he'd have to bet the house on Colorado

[Dumpy Dooby]

What about Clinton? She still has like one or two fanatics around. Think they can get her Democratic nomination?

[kinggovernor]

I have a hard time believing Obama will ever take Penn. or Ohio