How blacks can win Mississippi for Obama in the General Election

[Thorgrim]

Kerry lost to Bush, 457k to 684k

I'm using exact numbers, but I am going to round here (all statistics can be found on CNN's exit polls, results page, and demographics from wikipedia)

About 104k Kerry voters were white, there are approx 750k blacks over the age of 18 in Mississippi

Now, if they see Obama as their final chance to really make the black movement alive like it was in the 1960s, a real revolution of voting power, and focused all their energy on a massive GOTV, I could see a 90% voting rate and registration for black Americans, 670k

So now 104k white kerry voters + 670k black voters...774k Obama voters in MS...2004 was an extremely high turnout election, so McCain getting around 100k additional white voters to register in 2008...really doubtful

With 774k Obama voters, it is nearly impossible for McCain to win

So there, huge Mississippi win for Obama

In NC, 1.4 million blacks could register to vote for Obama...now roughly 670,000 whites voted for Kerry, 850,000 blacks for Kerry...now with only 70% registering in NC, that's a 200k increase, and Obama needs to pick up just either register/convince non-voting 200k whites to vote for him, or steal 100k Bush whites from 2004 to Obama 2008

Then bam, Obama wins

GA, 2 million potential black voters, if only 75% register and vote Obama, plus the 512k white Kerry voters...that's over 2 million Obama votes, more than what Bush got in 2004

Bam another Obama win

In Va, 1.1 million potential black voters, 650k white kerry voters...80% black registration would give him 154k Obama votes, now, Virginia has gotten significantly more blue (or purple, whatever) since 2004, so if only 100k bush voters switch to Obama, bam, he wins

Bam, another Obama win

That's a gain of 49 electoral votes, and a swing of 98 electoral votes

So all those uncomfortable white voters, or barely won races in 2004...New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, he could lose ALL OF THOSE

All he'd have to do is hold on to strong Democratic states, plus the enormous Dem turnout we expect to NM should eek out a win, Michigan will come home for us (see the intrade markets, and common sense) and Minnesota is just too populist and too Obama friendly...and that's it, election is over...all those "white males" Dems need in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Missouri, Nevada: fuck them...Dems don't need any of them

As long as the African American community rallies behind a black candidate who is an inspiration to every black preson I've met in Philadelphia