My April 20th prediction of the final electoral college vote (Obama vs McCain) *pic*

[Thorgrim]

This is my official April 20th Prediction

Yes, it's a tie, which, when thrown to the House, will vote for Obama, and he'll be the next president

Map Legend:
Strong means +10 (Ex: 55-45)
Weak means +5 (Ex: 52-47)
Barely means +one vote than the other guy (Ex: 50.1-49.9)
(Those are the minimums, plus +9 might sound strong Dem, but it's still weak Dem...+4 might sound weak Dem but it's still Barely Dem)

So here are the factors:
WA, OR, IA, WS, MN, ME, NJ and all the bluer states have been reliably Obama even during his darkest hours and McCain's highest peaks...for some reason the voters there don't seem to be affected when Obama screws up and didn't seem to barely that much when McCain won the nominations and was all over...if they can deal with all this stuff...and they were blue states to begin with, it seems likely they'll stick with Obama

Other states did care, there has been a huge shift in Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, and others following not only the Wright/Bitter stuff, but following the solidification in moderate/republican eyes that it's going to be Obama vs McCain, as such I don't see those states coming back into the fold at this time

Ohio also say some shifts but the polls are all over the place, but following the Dem Primary I see it as a "bridge too far" for Obama...at this point

Michigan is a blue state, they just need to heal over the primary and they'll be fine

McCain won New Hampshire's primary and Obama lost his their...it's just one of those states that likes McCain and it could change, but as of now I have to call it for McCain

Pennsylvania I know the best, and those Hillary-Dems up in Scranton will either not vote, or pick Obama, either way they are not going to "help" McCain, and Obama's flood of voters from Philadelpia and Pittsburgh put him over the top, and lack of enthuasism will hurt McCain (see Bob Dole)

Nevada has shown some good numbers for the Democrats, but I believe the Mormon vote (Romney will campaig hard in this state) and Nevada's stubborn nature at electing Democrats besides the Senate Majority leader...will ultimately tip it very slightly to McCain

New Mexico has it's three Representatives and a Senate seat all up, and I predict the Dems will sweep the table and with it give a nice bonus to whomever is running for President, in this case, Obama, who has polls showing him beating McCain, I see that only solidifying over time

Colorado is a big question mark but everything I've heard suggests it's voters don't really care about Obama's mis-steps and certainly aren't warming up to McCain, and their big Senate race is starting to tilt more and more towards the Democrat

So where could I be wrong? I list my most likely mistakes in order of which will most likely be different than my prediction:

1) Colorado is #1 by a mile, can it really swing that many points in 4 years? I know they like Obama, but...cmon
2) New Hampshire, Obama's "new politics" has a distinct possibly of sweeping over a state that's predisposition for McCain, especially when it's such a small victory McCain would pull off
3) Pennsylvania, I know it so well, right? Well White voters are hard to decide on...and Philadelphia is going to be relying on a lot of young, new and minority voters, we certainly can handle it, Philly has IMO the best urban machine for handling an extremely large turnout...but will they actually turn out?
4) Ohio, has shown big +10 Obama leads, maybe it's just on a pro-McCain tilt right now and is waiting to swing back the other way
5) Nevada, maybe the polls are a good indicator...8 months in advance
6) Last tie- Virginia/Florida: maybe it's all because of the primary wars, and Obama will surge back in those states...heck maybe even Missouri

And ofcourse, I could be wrong in general...Obama could collapse and lose even his well maintained midwestern states and New Mexico, and McCain could be overwhelmed and lose even North Carolina...

[SoFlaJDM]

excellent thread, but i seriously think it's way too close to call at this point.

let's say obama chooses webb as his running mate... things could look very different in states such as virginia and ohio.

and i think the republicans are taking florida for granted as well. this is 8 years after the florida debacle, and only a couple of months since our votes were ignored (as of right now). i wouldn't be surprised to see obama take florida as well.

btw, an april 10th rasmussen poll shows obama and mccain tied in NC... that's huge.


so basically, it's waaaay too close to call, but to me it looks like the beginning of an obama landslide

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

excellent thread, but i seriously think it's way too close to call at this point.

let's say obama chooses webb as his running mate... things could look very different in states such as virginia and ohio.

and i think the republicans are taking florida for granted as well. this is 8 years after the florida debacle, and only a couple of months since our votes were ignored (as of right now). i wouldn't be surprised to see obama take florida as well.

btw, an april 10th rasmussen poll shows obama and mccain tied in NC... that's huge.


so basically, it's waaaay too close to call, but to me it looks like the beginning of an obama landslide

do you really think James Webb is going to play second fiddle to Obama? He is one of my personal heroes, and I don't think he will.

do you really think that because the DNC won't seat Florida delegates it will result in a higher turnout for the democratic nominee?

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

do you really think James Webb is going to play second fiddle to Obama? He is one of my personal heroes, and I don't think he will.

do you really think that because the DNC won't seat Florida delegates it will result in a higher turnout for the democratic nominee?

yes

[motivez]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

do you really think James Webb is going to play second fiddle to Obama? He is one of my personal heroes, and I don't think he will.

do you really think that because the DNC won't seat Florida delegates it will result in a higher turnout for the democratic nominee?

Are you suggesting he's too egotistical to serve the nation as Vice President? That's how it comes off

Personally I like Jim Webb, but like him less since his stance on FISA, I thought it was a rather weak moment for him... I could see him as helping boost Obama's national security credibility.. anyone Obama gets, IMO, is going to have to have ties to the military to help him boost his credibility, and it should probably be someone older to help offset the 'inexperienced' charge

[Thorgrim]

Originally Posted by motivez

Are you suggesting he's too egotistical to serve the nation as Vice President? That's how it comes off

Personally I like Jim Webb, but like him less since his stance on FISA, I thought it was a rather weak moment for him... I could see him as helping boost Obama's national security credibility.. anyone Obama gets, IMO, is going to have to have ties to the military to help him boost his credibility, and it should probably be someone older to help offset the 'inexperienced' charge

I can't believe a pro-war Marine is saying Jim Webb is his hero when Jim Webb has made the best anti-war arguments of the past year...basically debunked the surge and highlighted a need to basically pull out and focus on resting our troops and going to afghanistan...and overall was VERY strong since 2003 that the war was A HUGE MISTAKE

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by motivez

Are you suggesting he's too egotistical to serve the nation as Vice President? That's how it comes off

Personally I like Jim Webb, but like him less since his stance on FISA, I thought it was a rather weak moment for him... I could see him as helping boost Obama's national security credibility.. anyone Obama gets, IMO, is going to have to have ties to the military to help him boost his credibility, and it should probably be someone older to help offset the 'inexperienced' charge

yes I think his ego is too big to compromise and play second fiddle.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

I can't believe a pro-war Marine is saying Jim Webb is his hero when Jim Webb has made the best anti-war arguments of the past year...basically debunked the surge and highlighted a need to basically pull out and focus on resting our troops and going to afghanistan...and overall was VERY strong since 2003 that the war was A HUGE MISTAKE

I have been a fan of his prior to 2003

[motivez]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I have been a fan of his prior to 2003

For those of us who were first introduced to him when he ran for the Senate, would you mind elaborating a little bit?

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by motivez

For those of us who were first introduced to him when he ran for the Senate, would you mind elaborating a little bit?

He went to Naval Academy, boxed Oliver North in the Championship round but unfortunately lost. He went to Vietnam as Marine Infantry Officer (like North), and has been awarded our highest medals. His Navy Cross (second only to the MoH) citation reads:

The Navy Cross is presented to James H. Webb, Jr., First Lieutenant, U.S. Marine Corps, for extraordinary heroism while serving as a Platoon Commander with Company D, First Battalion, Fifth Marines, First Marine Division (Reinforced), Fleet Marine Force, in connection with combat operations against the enemy in the Republic of Vietnam. On 10 July 1969, while participating in a company-sized search and destroy operation deep in hostile territory, First Lieutenant Webb's platoon discovered a well-camouflaged bunker complex that appeared to be unoccupied. Deploying his men into defensive positions, First Lieutenant Webb was advancing to the first bunker when three enemy soldiers armed with hand grenades jumped out. Reacting instantly, he grabbed the closest man and, brandishing his .45 caliber pistol at the others, apprehended all three of the soldiers. Accompanied by one of his men, he then approached the second bunker and called for the enemy to surrender. When the hostile soldiers failed to answer him and threw a grenade that detonated dangerously close to him, First Lieutenant Webb detonated a claymore mine in the bunker aperture, accounting for two enemy casualties and disclosing the entrance to a tunnel. Despite the smoke and debris from the explosion and the possibility of enemy soldiers hiding in the tunnel, he then conducted a thorough search that yielded several items of equipment and numerous documents containing valuable intelligence data. Continuing the assault, he approached a third bunker and was preparing to fire into it when the enemy threw another grenade. Observing the grenade land dangerously close to his companion, First Lieutenant Webb simultaneously fired his weapon at the enemy, pushed the Marine away from the grenade, and shielded him from the explosion with his own body. Although sustaining painful fragmentation wounds from the explosion, he managed to throw a grenade into the aperture and completely destroy the remaining bunker. By his courage, aggressive leadership, and selfless devotion to duty, First Lieutenant Webb upheld the highest traditions of the Marine Corps and of the United States Naval Service.

After he got out of the Marine Corps he went to Georgetown Law School and then worked on the House Committee for Veterans Affairs (something I have thought about doing ) He wrote a controversial but honest article about entitled "Women Can't Fight", intellectually explaining the difference between women and men. He took a lot of flak for it, but I believe it was the most honest piece from a man that had been there. Link: Women Can't Fight - News & Politics (washingtonian.com)

In 1979 he published "Fields of Fire", the best book about Vietnam, and is considered to be one of the best 20th century fiction books. He then served in the Reagan Administration in several capacities, ultimately as Sec. of the Navy. He helped to remake the Marine Corps, to get us out of the Vietnam-era problems and back to the elite level that we are famous for. He was the main reason General Gray was appointed Commandant, he is the man credited for guiding the Marine Corps through it Vietnam-era problems and back on track.

Webb resigned as Sec. of the Navy in 1988 when he refused to sign onto a plan to shrink the Navy, which is one of the reasons I can't see him accepting a VP slot.

He has written several other books, one of my favorites is "Born Fighting How the Scot-Irish shaped America" but that was published in 2004. John McCain had nothing but the highest regard for it: Born Fighting

He has also won an Emmy for his coverage of Marines in Beirut in 1983, and had a personal battle with Oliver North since their boxing match at the Academy. I find Oliver North disgusting, and it pains me that he has become such a celebrity. But Jim Webb has helped ensure that Oliver North did not get elected to the Senate in 1994, by supporting the Democrat. When Charles Robb (D) came up for reelection in 2000, Webb supported the Republican George Allen. In 2006, Webb ran against Allen.

He is one of my top 3 personal heroes and has been for a long time. While I disagree with his current political stance about class warfare, his position on Iraq has made me really re-think mine. I feel that I may be to personally invested in it to have an objective opinion but I do know the feeling of the reluctant warrior.

[kinggovernor]

if you are interested in learning more about McCain, Webb and North from the Naval Academy to Iran-Contra you should pick up:
Amazon.com: The Nightingale's Song: Robert Timberg: Books