You know what really bothers me?

[A_C_E]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

he can't secure the white working class vote, which has a tendency to be more conservative. These are the people he pissed off with his bitter comment and it is going to hurt him.

Not so. The exact same percentage of working-class white voters voted for him in PA as voted for him in New Jersey and Ohio. Thus, the bitter comment can be said to have had no effect on Pennsylvania working-class Democrats.

I have to go to class, but I want to address Thorgrim's points. Back at noon eastern for more discussion.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

he can't secure the white working class vote, which has a tendency to be more conservative. These are the people he pissed off with his bitter comment and it is going to hurt him.

Against a Republican?

That's just simply not true.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - National Polls

Obama has more than enough support to make him viable in a national election. Hillary seems to trying to make him unelectable against McCain though in order for the superdelegates to give her the nod. I don't know if it's such a wise thing for Democrats to reward to be honest.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by JaJae

Against a Republican?

That's just simply not true.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - National Polls

Obama has more than enough support to make him viable in a national election. Hillary seems to trying to make him unelectable against McCain though in order for the superdelegates to give her the nod. I don't know if it's such a wise thing for Democrats to reward to be honest.

I am not talking about national polls, because it is not a national popular vote. I am talking about how Obama is going to have a difficult time in Ohio and Penn. His supporters shift the debate to other states like Oklahoma and South Carolina because they can't get away from it.

[JaJae]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I am not talking about national polls, because it is not a national popular vote. I am talking about how Obama is going to have a difficult time in Ohio and Penn. His supporters shift the debate to other states like Oklahoma and South Carolina because they can't get away from it.

But again, Obama losing to Hillary doesn't necessarily mean those voters would prefer McCain over Obama. One candidate needs to drop in order to get a clear picture. If Obama drops, Hillary would definitely have some problems gaining certain demographics the same as if Hillary drops Obama may have some problems as well.

The argument is "Hillary won these parts of the state" and you can't win without them. But look at where Obama typically wins.. Urban areas of states. If you look at the previous election maps by county you'll see the rural areas is all red. It's the urban areas Democrats rely on in many of these swing states as well. If Hillary can't win those by a large margin because she cheated Obama out of the election she'd end up falling flat on her face as well.

There's a reason Republicans want Hillary to win this primary, and it isn't because they think she looks good in a pants suit.

[motivez]

Originally Posted by A_C_E

You're certainly right.

I often wonder what will come of Obama if Hillary gets the nom from the superdelegates and then loses to McCain. Will we see him in four years? Will we ever see him in a national election ever again? It will be interesting to see.

He is so well-loved among young people; he could be that "your vote didn't count" candidate in 2012. It's unlikely, but possible. We would see who the real mavericks of the party are if someone used a "your vote didn't count" talking point in 2012.

I think there was a statement by his wife that "We're only running once, so this is your only chance" or something to that effect.. which kinda put me off..

I'm sure it puts a lot of stress and pressure on the family, so I can kinda understand it.. but I kinda feel like if you truly believe you're a force for positive change in the country, you have a duty to run

[motivez]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

the super delegates are going to grant the nomination to either candidate, you guys made the system like that to make sure that you had an electable candidate for the general election. For instance, a guy that appeals to the young, hip and liberal, but can't lock down the traditional parts of the democratic base. So you appeal to the younger voters, that aren't reliable, and shuck off the 40+ vote, who are much more reliable.

As a Republican, please do this. It will help us carry Penn., Ohio and Florida.

I don't really agree with this though, that 40+ crowd that consistently votes down the Democratic party line would continue to do so even if it was Obama at the top of the ticket..

I know there are a lot of people coming out now who are saying if their candidate doesn't win, they wont vote, or they'll vote for McCain, but, I call .. these people who vote in the primaries are typically the most politically active people in the party, and when it comes down to it, they'd rather have a Democrat in the White House than a Republican.

All you have to do is look at the excitement and vote tallies in the primaries to see that so long as nothing major changes, the Republicans are going to be fighting a very steep uphill battle to turn out enough people to offset the massive interest on the Democratic side

[JaJae]

I agree with the above. There's still six months till November they'll come around to vote.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by A_C_E

Not so. The exact same percentage of working-class white voters voted for him in PA as voted for him in New Jersey and Ohio. Thus, the bitter comment can be said to have had no effect on Pennsylvania working-class Democrats.

I have to go to class, but I want to address Thorgrim's points. Back at noon eastern for more discussion.

wait til the RNC juggernaut kicks up their "value machine", and this comment will hurt Obama across the country. They will also use the exit poll data against him, he is supported by the elite of this country. That isn't to say that the DNC won't kick it into overdrive against McCain, but this is a serious problem Obama will have in a general election. That is why Hillary is still in this race and either he needs to figure it out or she could take him down.

[TankRizzo]

Originally Posted by motivez

All you have to do is look at the excitement and vote tallies in the primaries to see that so long as nothing major changes, the Republicans are going to be fighting a very steep uphill battle to turn out enough people to offset the massive interest on the Democratic side

To play devil's advocate here, wouldn't it be more beneficial for the dems to go with the person who does better with the blue collar crowd? By your logic that "they'll come around by november", the dem nominee is going to get the big cities regardless. Obama, while he said he wanted to open a racial dialog has avoided the subject like the plague since his speech. He, much like everyone else, doesn't want to talk about it, but it is an issue. I think the blue collar crowd will be apprehensive voting for a black guy with a muslim name, and when you heap on the reverend wright stuff, I think the potential is there for them to stay home.

Much like the exit polls, it's one thing to say you're going to vote for obama, it's another thing to actually do it.

It's going to be an interesting week. If he tries to reach out to those blue collar workers Hillary is going to be there to swat his hand away. He and his people have their work cut out for them. They've more or less won, but they have to keep fighting these losing battles.

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by motivez

I think there was a statement by his wife that "We're only running once, so this is your only chance" or something to that effect.. which kinda put me off..

I'm sure it puts a lot of stress and pressure on the family, so I can kinda understand it.. but I kinda feel like if you truly believe you're a force for positive change in the country, you have a duty to run

I could never put my family through such an ordeal, 18-24 months of complete scrutiny on you. He might think about how it would effect his young daughters

[kinggovernor]

Originally Posted by JaJae

I agree with the above. There's still six months till November they'll come around to vote.

we will just have to wait and see but I think his poor showing with blue collar people is the only reason Hillary is still in this and it will be a major liability come November if he makes it.

[motivez]

Originally Posted by TankRizzo

To play devil's advocate here, wouldn't it be more beneficial for the dems to go with the person who does better with the blue collar crowd? By your logic that "they'll come around by november", the dem nominee is going to get the big cities regardless. Obama, while he said he wanted to open a racial dialog has avoided the subject like the plague since his speech. He, much like everyone else, doesn't want to talk about it, but it is an issue. I think the blue collar crowd will be apprehensive voting for a black guy with a muslim name, and when you heap on the reverend wright stuff, I think the potential is there for them to stay home.

I don't think so, because I think a lot of the blue collar Democrat crowd will end up voting for whoever gets the Democratic nomination in the first place, and while McCain has some appeal to those types of people, once he's characterized as another Bush successfully (and he will because it's true), they will turn away from him.

I'm worried about the Wright stuff, but really, once it's played out so much.. people will not care any more, so it's good that it happened now instead of as an October surprise.

Obama could have done more to distance himself, it was the politically safe thing to do, but he didn't.. so he has to make a strong case, and will continue to have to make it until November if he's the nominee, that just because he knows someone and disagrees with them politically, doesn't mean he can't get spiritual advice from them.

On the contrast though, look at McCain's guy and his anti-Catholic rantings, that's more of a political affiliation than spiritual one, so I'm sure he'll have to answer questions about that in the future too.

Originally Posted by TankRizzo

It's going to be an interesting week. If he tries to reach out to those blue collar workers Hillary is going to be there to swat his hand away. He and his people have their work cut out for them. They've more or less won, but they have to keep fighting these losing battles.

Yeah, part of me wonders if Hillary isn't damaging him too much with some of the stuff she's doing tbh. She campaigns more and more like a Republican as time goes on, she recently put out an ad with images of 9/11, etc.. insinuating Obama wasn't ready to take charge

But this is her last and only shot, so I expect her to do everything she can to be the nominee.. even if it means ruining the party's chances in November.

[TankRizzo]

Originally Posted by motivez

I don't think so, because I think a lot of the blue collar Democrat crowd will end up voting for whoever gets the Democratic nomination in the first place, and while McCain has some appeal to those types of people, once he's characterized as another Bush successfully (and he will because it's true), they will turn away from him.

I don't think they'll so much vote for McCain as much as they would just not vote, and pinning McCain down as "another Bush" isn't going to be nearly as easy to do as you paint it. I think you're underestimating the Republicans and overestimating the voter's intelligence I don't think the Wright stuff will get played out any faster than the swift boat stuff did. It's some pretty damning material to have out being shoved in your face.

I think a lot will hinge on the state of the economy though.

[motivez]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

wait til the RNC juggernaut kicks up their "value machine", and this comment will hurt Obama across the country. They will also use the exit poll data against him, he is supported by the elite of this country. That isn't to say that the DNC won't kick it into overdrive against McCain, but this is a serious problem Obama will have in a general election. That is why Hillary is still in this race and either he needs to figure it out or she could take him down.

How much more coverage can it get though? They spent over a week on it, and still talk about it.. hasn't pretty much everyone seen it by now?

And it didn't really hurt his numbers except with people who wouldn't vote for him anyway

[A_C_E]

Originally Posted by JaJae

There's a reason Republicans want Hillary to win this primary, and it isn't because they think she looks good in a pants suit.

How is it that we can see this, but those who are going to decide the nomination seemingly can't?

[A_C_E]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

wait til the RNC juggernaut kicks up their "value machine", and this comment will hurt Obama across the country. They will also use the exit poll data against him, he is supported by the elite of this country. That isn't to say that the DNC won't kick it into overdrive against McCain, but this is a serious problem Obama will have in a general election. That is why Hillary is still in this race and either he needs to figure it out or she could take him down.

I disagree. Hillary, IMO, is still in the race for two reasons:

1.) She has a legion of die-hard followers among union employees and women, who would follow her off a cliff if she told them to. However, these same union workers aren't going to vote for a Republican in November. As almost all blue-collar union employees do, they will vote for whatever Democrat is on the ticket. The older women? Not so sure.

2.) Her own personal ambition won't allow her to withdraw from a race her own staffers acknowledged she has less than 10% chance of winning (and this was a month ago, it's probably less than 5% now), and she doesn't give a shit about the party or its political ideals, she only cares about herself. So the fact that her relentless push for the nom (which isn't coming) might cost the party the election? Doesn't matter to her in the least. She has her cushy Senate seat, her whipping-boy husband, and her millions. Principles mean nothing to her.

[A_C_E]

Originally Posted by Thorgrim

I don't get what you are saying at all...

Not every young left-leaning college student voted in PA, it wasn't even close

If more young people and new voters would have turned out, Obama would have fun...hell even _I_ voted for Obama, and where did it get us?

new/young registered voters don't show up and actually vote

I saw a young, late 20something (rather attractive) black woman headed off to work in a little honda who came out of the polling place with a huge smile going "I just voted for Hillary, yea!"

That is not machine politics, that is not voting on negativity...it's a great many people who hear her detailed plans and her style of speaking

That is the reason Hillary won by 200,000 votes

It's pretty condescending and arrogant to go "oh, f you working class women, i know you believe in all the standard progressive issues you'd expect any left-of-center Democrat to stand for...but don't you get it, Obama is just so cool, and did you hear his speech tonight? Yeah it was the same one he always gives, but he's change man, I can 'feel' it and if you can't 'feel' what i can 'feel', well you're stupid let's elect Bush for another 8 years"

E. Robinson, a liberal black editorialist for the WaPost, was on TV tonight saying that Obama's speech tonight was exactly the same speech he's been giving for months (now this guy is pretty clearly rooting for Obama I've been watching him for awhile) and that some people are simply getting tired of the same damn speech, and if it's getting old now...what do you think is going to happen by November?

This "machine politics" and somehow democrats are voting backwards is total BS...don't expect a mother of two kids to keep tabs on all the developments of the primary, it's elitist and arrogant, and dismissing their vote would only confirm it

1.) What is elitist and arrogant is you trying to tell me why I support Obama.

2.) The newly registered voters HAVE BEEN VOTING MORE THAN EVER BEFORE, AS HAVE THE YOUNG PEOPLE. THE STATISTICS IN EVERY PRIMARY SO FAR SHOW THIS TO BE A KNOWN FACT.

3.) If you honestly think Hill-dog will win the election after getting the nod from the superdelegates over the votes of the populace in the primaries, you have lost your mind. She doesn't stand a chance if she takes the nomination in that way.

The longer this shit goes on, the less likely we are to win in November. Hell, all the Republican strategists I saw on coverage last night said the same thing: "The Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot and we love it." CNN's guy even said "We don't even have to run any adds since Hillary is doing all the work for us." The RNC is practically salivating at the possibility of Clinton being nominated, as they know they would win an election they should have lost by a mile.

This is all pretty simply and very accurate reasoning. Thus, those voters and superdelegates who are pushing for Hillary to stay in are, in effect, one letter at a time signing the death wish of the Democrats' chances in November. So, go ahead, call me an elitist. If that's what it means to be concerned about your party's future, and the party members who are pissing on it, then fine, I'm an elitist and proud of it.

[IminWonderland]

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I could never put my family through such an ordeal, 18-24 months of complete scrutiny on you. He might think about how it would effect his young daughters

That is why she said that she would only loan our her Husband once. It's a valid point, and it kind of goes to show how he is out on this campaign because he thinks he can change the crappy road we've been on. If we are going to entrust that job to Clinton or Mccain, then I wouldn't want to run again either.