Bush spins the state of the economy

Dispatcher · 04-23-2008, 12:59 AM

Asked about the state of the U.S. economy, Bush said: "We're not in a recession. We are in a slowdown."

That's like seeing someone jump off a bridge and saying: "He's not falling into the water, he is just momentarily increasing his downward vertical velocity and then reducing it significantly at the bottom."

Kytro · 04-23-2008, 01:55 AM

In other news it's not cold out, it just not warm

thewise1 · 04-23-2008, 08:41 AM

I think by the official definition, we're not

By common sense though...

motivez · 04-23-2008, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by thewise1

I think by the official definition, we're not

By common sense though...

Yeah, the official definition is two or more quarters of successive negative growth?

I'm not sure how close we are to that right now.. but all the indicators are that we'll hit it officially as far as I'm aware, I don't think anyone is predicting a miraculous turnaround this year, but maybe next year..

kinggovernor · 04-23-2008, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by motivez

Yeah, the official definition is two or more quarters of successive negative growth?

I'm not sure how close we are to that right now.. but all the indicators are that we'll hit it officially as far as I'm aware, I don't think anyone is predicting a miraculous turnaround this year, but maybe next year..

1st and 2nd quarters of this year = negative growth
3rd and 4th quarters of this year = positive growth

and then the new president, whomever it is, will get to deal with all the inflation problems that we are certainly going to have to face.

IminWonderland · 04-23-2008, 01:42 PM

He is deluded and sad.

To say things are slow when thousand and thousands are loosing their homes, just as many unemployed, and gas breaking wallets, and it's a "slow down".

If you want to talk elitist, there is your guy!

kinggovernor · 04-23-2008, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by IminWonderland

He is deluded and sad.

To say things are slow when thousand and thousands are loosing their homes, just as many unemployed, and gas breaking wallets, and it's a "slow down".

If you want to talk elitist, there is your guy!

Actually the rising gas prices are a result of increased economic activity.

A_C_E · 04-23-2008, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by motivez

Yeah, the official definition is two or more quarters of successive negative growth?

I'm not sure how close we are to that right now.. but all the indicators are that we'll hit it officially as far as I'm aware, I don't think anyone is predicting a miraculous turnaround this year, but maybe next year..

That's a sort of newspaper definition.

For economists, a number of factors come into play--unemployment, retail sales, wholesale trade, inventories, and (very importantly) the Index of Industrial Production. When most-to-all of these factors are moving in the same direction (obviously the wrong direction), we can call it a recession.

The IIP is down from the last Dismal Scientist publications I read, and every time in our history the IIP has gone down, we have seen a recession. So I think it's fair to say that recession is already here.

IminWonderland · 04-23-2008, 09:25 PM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

Actually the rising gas prices are a result of increased economic activity.

The truck drivers who bring us our economic activity are about to go under.

That is total spin. We are being gouged and sold to mid east oil EVERYDAY.

It's pathetic and going to keep costing us more and more, until the seperation between the poor and the wealthy is astronomical.

A_C_E · 04-23-2008, 09:33 PM

Originally Posted by IminWonderland

The truck drivers who bring us our economic activity are about to go under.

That is total spin. We are being gouged and sold to mid east oil EVERYDAY.

It's pathetic and going to keep costing us more and more, until the seperation between the poor and the wealthy is astronomical.

Actually, high oil costs are more the fault of China and India than US foreign policy.

WickedLou9 · 04-24-2008, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

Actually the rising gas prices are a result of increased economic activity.

Failling value of US dollar, increased global demand from the developing world like China and India.

Increased economic activity? Not here. Maybe if you mean China then OK.

kinggovernor · 04-24-2008, 10:05 AM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

Failling value of US dollar, increased global demand from the developing world like China and India.

Increased economic activity? Not here. Maybe if you mean China then OK.

I should have clarified that, its more people around the world chasing the same quantity of resource. So of course the price is going to rise.

WickedLou9 · 04-24-2008, 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I should have clarified that, its more people around the world chasing the same quantity of resource. So of course the price is going to rise.

Yeah and since oil is priced globally in US dollars, every time the dollar falls in value, oil goes up accordingly, which doesn't effect everyone else as much as it does us.

Phantom · 04-24-2008, 10:50 AM

What exactly is the proper answer?

Should he say we're sinking quickly? Tell everyone to sell their dollars and US back securities? Is that really a better answer?

Generally people use the two quarters of negative gdp change. We haven't had that yet, so Bush's answer seems fine to me. It would be stupid to sound any more negative on the economy than he has to.

IminWonderland · 04-24-2008, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by kinggovernor

I should have clarified that, its more people around the world chasing the same quantity of resource. So of course the price is going to rise.

I agree with that. Which is why I think we should have gotten off our addiction 10 years ago, when I was promised in school of the coming electric cars, and trains that run on water.

It's been time, and now we are going to be severely punished economically for not being ahead of the times on this. And what is further, is that the common man is going to feel this pressure more than Escalade Bush.

kinggovernor · 04-24-2008, 08:05 PM

Originally Posted by IminWonderland

I agree with that. Which is why I think we should have gotten off our addiction 10 years ago, when I was promised in school of the coming electric cars, and trains that run on water.

It's been time, and now we are going to be severely punished economically for not being ahead of the times on this. And what is further, is that the common man is going to feel this pressure more than Escalade Bush.

there was no demand for alternative fuels 10 years ago, they are going to happen when they become marketable. It might be now, eventually we will have an energy portfolio that has a variety of energy sources

motivez · 04-24-2008, 09:12 PM

Originally Posted by Phantom

What exactly is the proper answer?

Should he say we're sinking quickly? Tell everyone to sell their dollars and US back securities? Is that really a better answer?

Generally people use the two quarters of negative gdp change. We haven't had that yet, so Bush's answer seems fine to me. It would be stupid to sound any more negative on the economy than he has to.

Yeah, I don't think any President will ever come out and say "Yep, we're doing absolutely HORRIBLE under my watch." unless it's at the start of their term and they're blaming their predecessor..

I don't know that being more negative serves any real purpose, but I think when you see people like McCain say things are going pretty well and we're better off now than we were 8 years ago it's pretty ridiculous

6SpeedTA95 · 04-24-2008, 10:43 PM

Originally Posted by Dispatcher

Asked about the state of the U.S. economy, Bush said: "We're not in a recession. We are in a slowdown."

That's like seeing someone jump off a bridge and saying: "He's not falling into the water, he is just momentarily increasing his downward vertical velocity and then reducing it significantly at the bottom."

Umm because we're not in an official recession yet. A recession is TWO CONSECUTIVE quarters of economic contraction. We know we had growth in Q4 which was slow. Some are even saying that we will only have one quarter of economic contraction which would mean no recession but a major slowdown.

So its not really spin...in fact the only spin is those saying we're already in a recession with no factual data yet available. Fact is we know we're in a slow down we can see the data that shows it...economic contraction? We wont have 1Q preliminary numbers until next week.

6SpeedTA95 · 04-24-2008, 10:44 PM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

Yeah and since oil is priced globally in US dollars, every time the dollar falls in value, oil goes up accordingly, which doesn't effect everyone else as much as it does us.

Thats a good point, today the dollar gained and oil dropped.

6SpeedTA95 · 04-24-2008, 10:52 PM

Originally Posted by IminWonderland

I agree with that. Which is why I think we should have gotten off our addiction 10 years ago, when I was promised in school of the coming electric cars, and trains that run on water.

It's been time, and now we are going to be severely punished economically for not being ahead of the times on this. And what is further, is that the common man is going to feel this pressure more than Escalade Bush.

You say that like its easy. Unfortunately nothing provides the versatile use and bang for the buck that oil does, with ONE exception...natural gas. We can't convert our transportation infrastructure to natural gas overnight, nor should we convert it.

Electric cars have to get power from somewhere, the electricity doesn't self generate. Which means you're probably getting it from a coal fired power plant, cheap but in some cases dirty. Natural Gas, Nuclear and Wind would be better options for electricity to charge your car.

Another problem with electric cars is the batteries. Batteries are extremely expensive especially now that demand is going up for them and even at 5 dollar a gallon gasoline to offset the added cost of a prius over a corolla you'd have to drive it 50 miles a day for 5 years to make up the difference in price. That difference will get bigger as battery demand increases and costs rapidly rise. Furthermore, battery powered cars have a limited distance on the battery and take a long time to charge (if they're plug in) and if you're on the highway the regenerative systems run out of electric power in about 50 miles.

What we need are ever increasing CAFE standards (now on the books) and we never should ahve let things stagnate for 2 decades in this area. We also need to make sure that incentives are available for hybrid technology but we need to eliminate the damn ethanol mandates and subsidies because its having a bigger disruptive effect on our economy than high oil prices.

Also, only about half of our oil demand comes from transportation the other half is chemicals, plastics etc, something we need to recycle more of.

Ultimately we need an energy policy that encourages a good mix of a variety of sources. In order to grow the economy we will have to grow our energy production to keep up with consumption. This should be done through nuclear power, wind power, natural gas, clean coal and perhaps one day solar.

Getting off oil isn't easy because even at 120 dollars per barrel its bang for the buck is still tremendous and its versatility only exceeded by natural gas, a resource which is much cleaner and more efficient than oil, but one we do not have the infrastructure to widely support at this point.