If the primaries started today rather than several months ago...

TankRizzo · 05-13-2008, 09:38 PM

do you think Obama would still have the lead or as much of a lead?

IMO his early campaign relied greatly on him being a relative unknown. He was able to paint himself as a flawless icon that transcended politics and he rolled that into several very large wins. As the time has gone on and the layers have been peeled back (and I think we still have a long way to go), he's not able to skate by on looks and good speeches.

So, if we went back and re-did all of the primaries right now, do you still think he'd have the lead?

JaJae · 05-13-2008, 10:12 PM

I think he would. I think knowing everything we know now he would still have the lead, perhaps not as strong. But I think he would be up. Most of the polls have shown that Obama has gotten through the Wright controversy and it isn't hurting him all that much among Democrats. Also, much of Hillary's early support was due to the notion of invincibility. That's gone away. I think she would have lost a lot of support in the early states. It's also important to note that almost every poll taken shows that as states get to know Hillary her support dwindles. The more time she spends in the race the lower her numbers become.

goldenponderbob · 05-14-2008, 09:58 AM

[quote=TankRizzo;184088] his early campaign relied greatly on him being a relative unknown.

Mr. O is still astonishingly unknown. Especiially on middle east policies that could have catastrophic global impact. We ought to have learned a thing or two these past sevenplus years about the impact of mistaken intentions in regard to that most sensitive region of the planet.

I'm suspecting that the negative stuff we keep hearing about Mr. O (which
amounts to one pastor and a couple of off-hand remarks) is really just a smokescreen that keeps voters from discovering way more damaging stuff about their hero. All in the interest of the ratings and newspaper sales that a close political race generates. "Knock whomever is ahead on any given day to keep the race tight, but be sure the knock is never about anything serious enough to lead to a knockout.

A national primary day ought to be the natural outcome of this season's circus, but I don't expect comon sense to prevail in national politics in my lifetime.

goldenponderbob