GOP Stunned by Loss in MS

[SoFlaJDM]

GOP Stunned By Loss in Mississippi

By Reid Wilson
In a major blow to national Republicans, a Mississippi congressional seat that once voted for President Bush by a twenty-five point margin elected a Democrat on Tuesday. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers beat out Republican candidate Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, by a 54%-46% margin, a spread that several Republican strategists on Capitol Hill characterized as a startling wake-up call for a party in dire straits.

Voters cast ballots for the fourth time in three months for the seat, vacated when Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to fill the remainder of Senator Trent Lott's term. After winning the primary and the runoff election, Childers came within 410 votes of winning the first round of the special election against Davis on April 22, beating the Republican by a 49%-46% margin.
Last night, Childers, a conservative Democrat, again outperformed Davis in many rural counties. Childers did better than in April in eighteen out of twenty four counties, while he underperformed in just two counties. Childers held steady in three of the remaining counties, while Winston County produced just ten votes. Most importantly, Childers held firm in Lee County, the district's largest and home to Tupelo, winning 58% of the vote, while improving his showing in DeSoto County, Davis's home field. Childers won 25% of the vote in DeSoto County, better than his anemic 17% showing in April.

The results came despite national Republican efforts aimed at winning the seat. Senators Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker, former Senator Trent Lott and Governor Haley Barbour campaigned hard for Davis. On Monday, perhaps as an unfortunate measure of how Republican the district really is, Vice President Dick Cheney held a rally for Davis. ()Closing the gap in DeSoto County, said Childers pollster John Anzalone, was crucial. "All we were looking to do was to cut the margins there," he said.

The loss has already shaken establishment Republicans in Washington. After losing special elections in Illinois and Louisiana, the House GOP conference already expects a bad year for their party. But those two districts voted for President Bush by eleven and nineteen points, respectively, not by a whopping twenety five points. "People are going to want change," said a top aide to a leading House Republican. "The excuses, that [Davis] didn't have the resources or that he wasn't from the right part of the district, that's just not going to hold up."

In the earlier special elections, Republicans blamed their candidate -- businessman Jim Oberweis in Illinois and former state legislator Woody Jenkins in Louisiana -- for the party's loss. As polls showed Davis losing to Childers, national Republicans began to signal they would blame Davis for being from the wrong part of the district.

But instead of blaming Davis, National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole issued a surprisingly blunt statement about his party's own chances, coming a week after a national poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by a wide 50%-32% margin on generic congessional ballot tests. "Tonight's election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November," Cole said. "First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats' task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans."

"The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," Cole continued. "I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election."

Still, losing heavily Republican seats in the Deep South is a big blow to the Washington GOP. "To lose two Southern seats in two weeks, I mean, oh my God," the leadership aide said. The aide told Real Clear Politics that something new is going to happen at the NRCC. "People look at Cole, and they say, 'What are you going to do to change?' And if he doesn't want to change, change is going to be forced on him."

A top adviser to a Republican incumbent who has a difficult race in November already says his boss is not looking to the NRCC for the same help he got in 2006. "This chairman badly underestimated how important it is to have top-flight staff," the adviser said, adding that some NRCC staffers are "toiling" under supervisors with less campaign experience. "We had been planning all along to operate without much help from them."

The leadership aide suggested that a former NRCc chairman, Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, could take on a larger role in the coming months. Davis, who is retiring after this session of Congress, ran the committee earlier this decade and currently serves as chairman of the NRCC executive committee. The adviser suggested, instead, that the wounded NRCC presents an opportunity for other members of the caucus to help out their fellow Republicans with political action committee donations, setting up future advancement for themselves.

While Republicans faced a renewed crisis of confidence Tuesday, Democrats celebrated what they said was another failed GOP angle of attack. "These are districts we have no business playing in," said Anzalone, who polled for Democratic winners in both Louisiana and Mississippi. "In ten days, you have two candidates who were attacked at high levels with [Barack] Obama and [the Rev. Jeremiah] Wright, and Nancy Pelosi and all that, and in neither place it worked." National Republicans ran advertisements slamming Childers for associating with Obama, forcing the conservative Democrat to respond with an advertisement asserting he had never met the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

Both parties spent heavily on the district. The NRCC spent at least $1.29 million on the seat, according to Federal Election Commission reports released yesterday, while the DCCC expended $1.84 million in the same race. Democrats point out that, as reported on Politics Nation earlier this week, Freedom's Watch, a group that backs Republican candidates, spent another approximately $500,000 on the seat. Adding insult to injury, Davis, the losing Republican, outspent Childers by a little less than a two-to-one margin. Through April 23, Davis had raised $876,000 and spent $803,000; Childers had raised just $485,000 and spent $419,000.

With more than $44.3 million in the bank after the end of March, Democrats can afford that kind of expenditure in a special election. But with only $7.2 million on hand, the NRCC will not be able to sustain that kind of spending in the future. After spending millions in the three losing special elections, the NRCC is likely to face seriously disappointing fundraising reports for the next several months.

As Childers heads to Washington in the next several days to take the oath of office, Republicans now find themselves at a 37-seat disadvantage in Congress. And with a difficult election coming in November, one in which they will likely find themselves financially and politically outgunned, national Republicans are already making plans for the future. No one, though, is likely to try to force leadership changes before November. "I don't imagine anyone running against Chairman Cole," the adviser to the endangered Republican said. "Because Who would want this job?"

this is just a small taste of what's gonna come in november. the GOP is in some serious trouble despite what they may be saying. they are in some serious danger of suffering some irreparable damage. the democrats simply have MUCH more money to spend and when a dem wins a heavily GOP leaning seat, looks like the GOP should start focusing on themselves instead of manufactured controversy

[motivez]

What's really interesting is that the GOP had some ridiculous ads trying to link this guy to Rev. Wright through Obama.. and it didn't work, even in the most Republican of districts

Seriously, if that kind of attack doesn't work in this kind of district, is it really going to work in more moderate areas?

[Scrum]

Here was the ad they ran.

YouTube Video

They aren't having any luck in these special elections, even when they try these kinds of tactics.

The Republican brand is shit right now.

[motivez]

Democrats are now what, 3 for 3 in special elections against Republicans?

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by motivez

Democrats are now what, 3 for 3 in special elections against Republicans?

that is correct

[SoFlaJDM]

GOP cancer: Party could lose 20 more seats
By JOHN F. HARRIS & JOSH KRAUSHAAR | 5/14/08 8:09 PM EST

For the past 18 months, ever since the 2006 elections, congressional Republicans have been like a hospital patient trying to convince visitors that he is not really all that sick: a bit under the weather; actually feel better than I sound; should be up and about any day; thanks for asking.

Suddenly — belatedly — all pretense is gone.

The Republican defeat in Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi, in a deeply conservative district where, in an average year, Democrats cannot even compete, was a clear sign that the GOP has the political equivalent of cancer that has spread throughout the body. Many House GOP operatives are privately predicting that the party could easily lose up to 20 seats this fall.

Combined with the 30 seats that the GOP lost in 2006, that would leave the party facing a 70-vote deficit against Democrats in the House — a state of powerlessness reminiscent of Republicans’ long wilderness years in the 1960s and ’70s.

Things are not particularly more hopeful on the Senate side, where most analysts say Democrats have a strong chance of adding five or more seats to their current majority.

Panic and blame-casting for the dire condition were flowing in equal measures Wednesday inside the House Republican Conference and among party elders and operatives outside.

In the crossfire, there was a bracing new spirit of candor that has largely been missing since 2006, when many Republicans tried to convince the public — and perhaps themselves — that the defeat was the result of temporary setbacks, such as the House page scandal or bad headlines for Tom DeLay, rather than something more fundamental.
“The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006, when we lost 30 seats (and our majority) and came within a couple of percentage points of losing another 15 seats,” Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Northern Virginia Republican who previously headed the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a 20-page memo to colleagues.

Former Rep. Mickey Edwards, an Oklahoma Republican, said: “I don’t know that I have seen a year like this, ever. The general attitude toward Republicans is so bad nationally.”

By coincidence, the current NRCC chairman — Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), the target of much finger-pointing for his strategy — got his start in politics as a young aide to Edwards. Like many in his party, Edwards said the GOP’s main hope for avoiding a blowout this fall rests in having candidates liberate themselves from their national party label and run on local issues.

But that is easier said than done. The Mississippi district won by Travis Childers is the third consecutive Republican-leaning district that Democrats have won in a special election this year.

Party strategists, most of whom spoke anonymously, said the implications of this record reverberate in all manner of ways that are not necessarily obvious at first blush.
Newly vulnerable Republicans: Suddenly, all sorts of districts that in typical years should be safe for the GOP, no matter the national trend, are clearly in jeopardy.
Page 2

Those seats include the open seats of retiring Reps. Kenny Hulshof in northeast Missouri, Jim McCrery in northwest Louisiana, Steve Pearce in rural New Mexico and Terry Everett in Alabama.
Democrats breathing easy: Some of the freshman Democrats who were once viewed as highly vulnerable in their reelection bids are now looking to be in surprisingly good shape. Republicans haven’t been able to field credible recruits against freshman Democratic Reps. John Hall of New York, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Zack Space of Ohio — all of whom represent traditionally GOP districts that the party lost in the 2006 election.
One of the Republicans’ perennial targets, Rep. Melissa L. Bean (D-Ill.), is now heavily favored to win reelection after her once highly touted Republican challenger reported a near-empty campaign account at the end of March.

Money meltdown: The NRCC has now spent about $3 million to defend three House seats in the most conservative parts of the county — Dennis Hastert’s seat in exurban Chicago, Richard Baker’s seat in the Baton Rouge, La., area and Roger Wicker’s seat in northeast Mississippi. Until this year, Republicans rarely had to break a sweat to hold on to these seats. They have now lost all three of them, and the committee is even less-equipped financially to compete fully in an ever-widening playing field for November.

That $3 million total is about 42 percent of all cash on hand the committee reported at the end of March (in its latest filing). The playing field of competitive races in 2008 will comprise at least 40 seats, and possibly as many as 70. The committee just does not have money to help its stronger candidates — and it won’t even have enough money to help all of its vulnerable incumbents.

What’s more, in fundraising, just as success breeds more success, defeat is self-reinforcing. With the clear signs of how much trouble the party is in, it is going to be harder than ever to persuade donors to open their wallets on behalf of candidates this fall.

“If I’m those members, I’m very concerned. You look at what the NRCC spent last cycle in those races — who’s going to do that next time? All these Republicans are used to having more money; they’ve never been in a situation where Democrats have been able to outspend them,” said a top GOP strategist.

Heading for the hills: Plainly, there are large headwinds blowing that no operative or party leader, no matter how skilled, could counteract. But this fact does not mean that Cole and his team have not made matters worse through what many Republican members see as poor fundraising and candidate recruitment, as well as faulty judgments about message and resource allocation.

The second-guessing on the Republican side is going to make it virtually impossible for leaders to impose any kind of discipline on their caucus when it comes to showdown votes in 2008 or to running on a unified message. At times such as this, it is every man and woman for themselves — plainly the smartest move for individuals but not necessarily for the party as a whole.

“It is not beyond the realm of possibility that we could be down to 170 seats. It’s like back to where we were in the ’80s,” said an aide to a top GOP lawmaker. “The only solace we’ll have is maybe we can run against [Barack] Obama in 2010.”

[David Octavius]

Although I am happy that the Republicans are reaping what they sow, it would be nice if there was a third "swing party" party in the House. Nothing huge, just big enough where their support is needed for major issues. I think it could really moderate politics and stop (or slow down) the insanity of the pendulum of power swinging from one ideological extreme to another.

[goldenponderbob]

Is it possible for GOP dislikers, like myself, to be reluctant to draw the curtain on the two-party system, for a good long time at least, by voting for O this fall?

I very much want to see McCain go down; and not for something stupid or something his wife did, but in the manner of "red" geography going blue" only because we voters think the GOP simply needs to do a very long stint in political purgatory and rethink their priorities.

The end of two-party govenment, means a return to the America of the sixties, which, as you may recall, was a time of buring cities and riots.

It was a time when a President named Johnson could to leave the White House without creating dangerous chaos whereever his plane landed. The times were so bad, by the end of the decade they had trouble finding anyone dumb enough to take the job.

The word facist, used as a reference to a police state where civil liberties are denied for the sake of peace in the streets, applied to those times. It was a time when the people in the streets that were anything but peaceful greeted the "peacekeepers" with the term, "pigs".

I was there. I lived in Chicago in 1968. Republicans were far and few between, and none in positions of authority, and the times were just as
I described.

The math about the twenty seats in the house is very real. O may come into office with a nearly filabuster proof house of representatives. If the democrats pickup twnety additional seats, their control will approach 59%. Apposing democrats on anything would then require perfect attendance, not usually associated with Washington.

That may turn out to be more party control than is wise.

Thanks to George and the GOP, We're likely to find out if that's true.

goldenponderbob

[kombayn]

Man I wonder how the conservative base is going to feel if Obama is elected (and he has a super-liberal Vice President) with the Democrats controlling the House and Senate. I think it'd be great for the economy, because bills would get passed and unfortunately probably a bunch of bail-outs. It'd be a good 4 years to have them re-shape the country and economy followed by electing a conservative base to control the offices. That way we can get our taxes cut again! OH YEAH!

[thatguyoverthere]

It will be interesting to see if one or two decide to jump ship and go independent or Democratic. I seem to recall that happening to Democrats when the shoe was on the other foot a few years back.

And funny to see Tom Cole use the "Democrat" term. Cracks me up every time.

It's interesting to look at those numbers. I wonder if it really will break down like that nationwide in November. My gut still tells me no way, but those numbers look pretty convincing. I wonder if it would be possible to find the district that had the highest margin of Bush victory and see how they're doing now.

[kombayn]

If the other party is losing seats left and right, it's going bad for them. They can't get the act together and they wonder why they're getting screwed. A lot of the people agree on same principles with the economic state of the economy, but not with the social-fiscal side. That's where the great divide actually happens.

[goldenponderbob]

As the Federalists whithered (quite a while back), new politcal blood from divisions within the surviving party split into factions (okay, sections) that filled the vacuum.

To me, that makes perfect sense applied to today's democratic party. I would like to see progressive, but fiscally competent middle-of-the-road, democrats divorce the radical left.

If the GOP went the way of the federalists, in one generation we would all look back and say it's time, like that of the dinosaurs, had passed, and we aren't really missing either.

The GOP blatantly stood on Lincoln's shoulders and used the machinery of government to enrich themselves. Eisenhower knew next to nothing about politics until he had the chance to see the machinery close up. What he saw
bothered him enough that he warned us, much as Washington, the federalist, had warned about "foreign entanglements", to keep an eye on "The Militiary Industrial Complex" as the real enemy of the country's best interests.

He was right. The stuff on the MIC's drawing board when he left the stage, became the stuff of the vietnam era. You didn't think all that technology was going to be for nothing did you? The same thing happend when during Reagan's time, and it became the impressive show of the Schwartzkoff era.

What benefits the "MIC" now are "projects" likes Iraq. All through the Clinton era they paused, until in 2000 we let them out of their cage again.

Looking back, was containing Hussein, even if he had WMD's such an awful thing? Israel has WMD's (we're told), but how do they expect to use them without becoming endangered by the fallout?

Sounds like a problem better left unsolved, but where we see a Pandora's box, the MIC sees opportunity. Thats' why its time for the GOP to take a powder. Everytime they get the chance, the MIC gets new project.

The race to the middle has always been the winning game for the national leadership and the people. I do not understand why Clinton's second term goes so unnoticed as one of the best periods in our history for the average citizen.

As the fallout from Bill's reckless conduct disgraced his office, its center-ring position took the pressure off to right every wrong on the planet while sending the bill to voters and posterity. As a result, for a short time, the nation's revenue to caught up with the bills, which caused interest rates to fall and real spendible income to increase.

[David Octavius]

One can only hope that a third party can break away with disillusioned members of both political parties leading the way. Remember, after the Federalist went bye-bye, the D-R party dominated for years. The Whigs gave a little competition in the 1830s but soon they too disappeared, but parts of the Whigs, some other third parties came together and formed the Republican party. If memory serves me Lincoln was a Whig member

[SoFlaJDM]

OUCH!!

Affair revelation halts GOP congressman's re-election pursuit - CNN.com

Affair revelation halts GOP congressman's re-election pursuit


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A New York congressman who admitted to fathering a child out of wedlock with a woman who bailed him out of jail on a drunk driving charge this month announced Monday that he will not run for re-election. Fossella is the 30th Republican to announce they would not seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives.
"This choice was an extremely difficult one, balanced between my dedication to service to our great nation and the need to concentrate on healing the wounds that I have caused to my wife and family," Rep. Vito Fossella, a six-term Republican, said in a written statement.
Fossella, who represents Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, is the 30th Republican to announce they would not seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives.
As a result, Democrats, who hold a 236-199 majority in the House, could see gains in the November election.
Fossella's sudden downfall began soon after midnight on May 1, when he ran a red light in Alexandria, Virginia and was stopped by police. A breath test put his blood-alcohol level at 0.17 percent, more than double the state's legal limit, according to his arrest report.
The congressman apologized the next day for what he said was "an error in judgment."
A week later, the 43-year-old, married Fossella was apologizing again to his family and constituents because of his secret extramarital affair with Laura Fay.
It became public because the police report said Fossella told the arresting officer he was going to visit a sick daughter when he was stopped, identifying Fay's street as his destination.
Fossella told reporters after his arrest that he had been celebrating the Super Bowl champion New York Giants' appearance at the White House with constituents.
Fossella first came to Congress in a 1997 special election and has won five full terms since.

• Story Highlights
• In May, Fossella ran a stop light in Virginia and failed a breath test
• The statement he gave police revealed his extramarital affair, and the couple's child
• Fossella is the 30th Republican to announce they would not seek re-election

there goes another seat to the dems

[thatguyoverthere]

Originally Posted by SoFlaJDM

there goes another seat to the dems

If the GOP loses big time, in November they only have to look in the mirror or their framed picture of George W. Bush to find the people responsible. A member of the party of family values and personal responsibility driving drunk to see his secret second family! It's sad that something so pathetic is so funny.

[motivez]

I really think this is going to be an election with a monumental shift in the balance of power in Washington

[SoFlaJDM]

Originally Posted by motivez

I really think this is going to be an election with a monumental shift in the balance of power in Washington

i've been saying this since nov 06... the GOP is in big trouble

[SoFlaJDM]

mccain's campaign asks bush to stay away

Bush scales back McCain events
By MIKE ALLEN | 5/24/08 11:26 AM EST

President Bush is scaling back next week’s fundraising swings for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the request of the campaign, which wants the events closed to the press, POLITICO has learned.

The change — in both Arizona and Utah — is part of McCain’s delicate effort to find the balance between embracing an unpopular president and taking advantage of his huge continuing draw with well-heeled Republicans.

The Arizona event, which was to be at the Phoenix Convention Center, was the first time Bush was to have appeared with McCain since their White House meeting in March.

A McCain aide said: “The McCain campaign has a policy that fundraising events are closed press. In keeping with that policy, the campaign requested the event be moved to a private home.”

On Tuesday, the president was to appear with McCain at the Phoenix Convention Center at a McCain for President and Republican National Committee Victory Reception.

And on Wednesday, Bush was to appear at Salt Lake City’s Grand America Hotel with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at a McCain for President and Republican National Committee Victory Reception (followed by a more exclusive dinner at the Romneys’ Park City home).

Now, both of the public events will be at private residences.

As recently as Wednesday, Salt Lake media were saying the event would be at the Grand America.

A White House official gave the same explanation as the McCain campaign: “As you know, we have a practice of having fundraisers in public venues as open to press and fundraisers in private residences closed to press to preserve the hosts' privacy. The [McCain campaign’s] practice has been to have all fundraisers be closed. And so a decision was made to move the location to comply with the practices.”

The Phoenix Business Journal reports that other factors also played a part: “Sources familiar with the situation said the Bush-McCain event was not selling enough tickets to fill the Convention Center space, and that there were concerns about more anti-war protesters showing up outside the venue than attending the fundraiser inside.”

A private reception at the Phoenix Convention Center event was going to cost $25,000, while a larger reception was $1,000, or $2,300 with a lapel pin.

At the Salt Lake hotel, a host-committee luncheon was open