Hillary wins West Virginia by 41 points.. will they vote for Obama in November?

motivez · 05-14-2008, 04:56 PM

It was really a devastating loss for Obama, even though everyone knew it was coming.. the presumptive nominee losing the state by 40 points is embarrassing

I don't know that these people are going to be willing to vote for Obama in the fall, and it worries me that he has continuing problems with this demographic

It also, imo, lends some credence to the idea that Hillary might be a VP choice.. while she goes against his 'change' message and doesn't really bring in anything state wise.. he is going to need someone on the ticket to help offset this perception as the most liberal person in the world ever.. at least since John Kerry (

)

Like I said in another thread, living in NC I know a lot of the same people that the news has been talking about, working class white folks who just can't bring themselves to vote for Obama.. and I don't see that changing in the few months after he secures the nomination unless they can feel good about voting for the ticket

SoFlaJDM · 05-14-2008, 05:13 PM

obama can do just fine without WV. he will be highly competitive in the south

and in 6 months, a lot can change.

SoFlaJDM · 05-14-2008, 05:16 PM

and speaking of which, edwards is now endorsing obama... here comes that blue collar vote

JaJae · 05-14-2008, 05:24 PM

Being an Obama supporter my opinion is fairly biased, but I think Obama will be ok in November.

Hillary's camp keeps saying "Look I have this vote, you can't win without this vote." But they fail to mention that Obama still holds the popular vote and his his followers that you can't win without either. The argument goes both ways... if Hillary "steals" the nomination from Obama, will his supporters turn out to vote for her? Polls show they would vote for her by a slightly higher margin than people would cross over to Obama. However, it's important to note that Obama has more of the vote which helps cancel some of that.

Also, Clinton keeps saying all her dirty laundry is out. What we've seen through this primary is that Hillary has a lot more dirt that keeps creeping out from under the rug and her current opponent has been reluctant to capitalize on it. Once the GOP gets their hands on her they'll pull out more dirt, and go back into her past... something Obama has not done. And I really think going into Hillary's past is going to hurt her. She keeps saying everyone has heard it a thousand times. Bullshit. The media has protected her for a very long time. The only time it's recited is on conservative talk radio and conservative outlets. If you were to walk down the street and ask people what happened during Whitewater I'd be willing to bet most of them would have no clue what Hillary's involvement was or anything about her phony testimony. Then on top of that there's all her other million and a half scandals like Peter Paul, more false testimony regarding Travelgate, etc. The reality is Hillary is a dirty, unethical, lying politician and she has nearly two decades of scandals that the public by and large do not know the details of. If she wins the nomination, that will change.

motivez · 05-14-2008, 05:26 PM

I don't really like the idea of this characterization of the nomination as "stealing"

Look, Hillary can't get there without the super delegates, but neither can Obama. Both candidates will fail to earn enough pledged delegates through contests alone to secure the nomination.. and the metric of the popular vote is meaningless because it is a delegate system

That's supposed to be the point of the convention, although in recent years it's been a parade and free press for whoever the nominee is

JaJae · 05-14-2008, 05:31 PM

Originally Posted by motivez

I don't really like the idea of this characterization of the nomination as "stealing"

Look, Hillary can't get there without the super delegates, but neither can Obama. Both candidates will fail to earn enough pledged delegates through contests alone to secure the nomination.. and the metric of the popular vote is meaningless because it is a delegate system

That's supposed to be the point of the convention, although in recent years it's been a parade and free press for whoever the nominee is

The general thought process though is that the people are supposed to choose the nominee, not the party insiders. That is why they have the primaries. If Hillary wins the nomination it will be because the party insiders robbed Obama from the will of the people.

motivez · 05-14-2008, 05:32 PM

Not enough of the people wanted Obama to be the nominee for him to get to the finish line with only their support

JaJae · 05-14-2008, 07:22 PM

Originally Posted by motivez

Not enough of the people wanted Obama to be the nominee for him to get to the finish line with only their support

Finish line is a metaphor for a sporting event. Imagine going to a car race and two cars race to qualify. Neither car's time is good enough to qualify and the rules state the officials get to decide. Imagine if they gave it to the car who came in second? Would you consider that stealing the race?

motivez · 05-14-2008, 07:24 PM

No, because neither of them qualified.. lets take this analogy a little further and lets say the state officials know the one who was a little behind has a longer history of racing cars and think they'll perform better in the big race, with all of the pressures, etc.. instead of the untested new driver who's only test has been in the qualifier..

I don't want to see Hillary get the nomination, but I'm sick of the characterization that she's somehow stealing it. It's not his for her to steal yet, and it wont be because he can't get there with pledged delegates

TankRizzo · 05-14-2008, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

Finish line is a metaphor for a sporting event. Imagine going to a car race and two cars race to qualify. Neither car's time is good enough to qualify and the rules state the officials get to decide. Imagine if they gave it to the car who came in second? Would you consider that stealing the race?

So, what if the two cars crash and total one another?

Seriously though, I wouldn't shrug this whole WV thing off as nothing. There are a lot more states out there like this and the black population within those states is not big enough to carry him past it in the general election.

You have to remember that in terms of the general election, Obama is only getting about 1/4 of the votes right now as it is. He's had Hillary on the mat, it was his for the taking and Hillary keeps coming back in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and now with a blowout in WV. This IS going to be a problem for him.

WickedLou9 · 05-15-2008, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by TankRizzo

So, what if the two cars crash and total one another?

Seriously though, I wouldn't shrug this whole WV thing off as nothing. There are a lot more states out there like this and the black population within those states is not big enough to carry him past it in the general election.

You have to remember that in terms of the general election, Obama is only getting about 1/4 of the votes right now as it is. He's had Hillary on the mat, it was his for the taking and Hillary keeps coming back in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and now with a blowout in WV. This IS going to be a problem for him.

WV doesn't matter. It's a very rural state with a small population. They are also a pretty red state. I wonder how many people listen to Limbaugh and crossed party lines to vote for Hillary. The race is over and it was over before WV voted.

JaJae · 05-15-2008, 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by motivez

No, because neither of them qualified.. lets take this analogy a little further and lets say the state officials know the one who was a little behind has a longer history of racing cars and think they'll perform better in the big race, with all of the pressures, etc.. instead of the untested new driver who's only test has been in the qualifier..

And you think that would go over well with the fans, most of whom showed up to root for and bet on the underdog to win? You don't think they'd feel it was robbed from them? I strongly disagree.

The only way Obama can lose now is with the delegate count, the popular vote and with most states won. He's won the race in every possible way you can make a qualifying argument on. If he isn't the nominee it was robbed from him. The reasoning behind it would be irrelevant to me.

TankRizzo · 05-15-2008, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

WV doesn't matter. It's a very rural state with a small population. They are also a pretty red state. I wonder how many people listen to Limbaugh and crossed party lines to vote for Hillary. The race is over and it was over before WV voted.

WV a "pretty red state"? Since when? They're a HEAVILY pro-union state.

Scrum · 05-15-2008, 02:34 PM

I think this kind of thinking is why WV went the way it did.

YouTube Video

JaJae · 05-15-2008, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by TankRizzo

WV a "pretty red state"? Since when? They're a HEAVILY pro-union state.

West Virginia is a swing state. They voted for Reagon, Dukasis, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush.

motivez · 05-15-2008, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by WickedLou9

WV doesn't matter. It's a very rural state with a small population. They are also a pretty red state. I wonder how many people listen to Limbaugh and crossed party lines to vote for Hillary. The race is over and it was over before WV voted.

Who's the last Democrat to win the Presidency without West Virginia?

Scrum · 05-15-2008, 02:35 PM

And i'm not sure how embarrassing the loss is, McCain only won 1% of the vote in WV.

TankRizzo · 05-15-2008, 02:42 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

The only way Obama can lose now is with the delegate count, the popular vote and with most states won. He's won the race in every possible way you can make a qualifying argument on. If he isn't the nominee it was robbed from him. The reasoning behind it would be irrelevant to me.

He didn't win any of them by a substantial enough lead to be the clear cut winner either, though.

TankRizzo · 05-15-2008, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by JaJae

West Virginia is a swing state. They voted for Reagon, Dukasis, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush.

Bush, Bush was a shock though, and the fact they went Dukakis should tell you something....and just look at who holds all of the local seats.