Inside and Out in Key Jersey GOP House Primary

[Ron Burgundy]

CQPolitics.com - Leonard Lance, a state senator, and public relations consultant Kate Whitman, the daughter of a former governor, are the front-runners in the seven-candidate field for Tuesday's Republican primary in New Jersey's open 7th Congressional District -- a key contest that pivots on whether the district's GOP voters favor political experience or a fresh face.

At stake is a House general election race that projects to be one of the nation's most competitive this year. The Democrats are making a strong push to take over the seat that four-term Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson left open with his surprise decision to retire, announced last November. And the Democratic nominee again will be state Rep. Linda Stender, who lost to Ferguson by just 1 percentage point as his challenger in the 2006 election.

Lance, in his campaign for the Republican primary, has emphasized his 15-plus years of experience in both chambers of the state legislature and a record that he describes as fiscally conservative. He served as state Senate minority leader from 2004 to 2007.

Whitman, though, is hoping to galvanize support from voters who are disgruntled with politicians and have a low opinion of the state legislature. "People in New Jersey are really fed up with politics as usual and sort of career politicians in general," Whitman told CQ Politics. "So I think they want to see a change and I think I offer that."

Whitman is hardly a stranger to New Jersey's political circles. Her mother, Christine Todd Whitman, served as the state's governor from 1994 to 2001, resigning during her second term to begin more than two years as President Bush's first administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. But the younger Whitman, who last year waged an unsuccessful Republican primary bid for county freeholder (a position equivalent to legislator), contends that her ability to say she was "not part of the problem" in the state capital of Trenton would benefit her in the general election against Democratic lawmaker Stender.

Whitman -- who, like her mother, is positioned as a Republican centrist -- has proposed a six-point plan to cut taxes and spending, offer tax relief to families, eliminate illegal immigration, clean up political corruption, provide affordable health care and reach a conclusion to the Iraq war.

Whitman's criticisms of political insiders have also singed Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks and former Summit County Freeholder P. Kelly Hatfield, two of the other candidates running in Tuesday's 7th District Republican primary. But Whitman's pointed remarks have especially drawn blowback from Lance supporters, including incumbent Ferguson.

In a television ad that touted Lance as having a solid fiscally conservative record, Ferguson was quoted defending Lance, as was another New Jersey political scion: state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the GOP's unsuccessful 2006 challenger to Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez and the son of another popular former Republican governor.

In an interview with CQ Politics, Lance expressed his disappointment that Whitman had gone negative, but suggested it's "reflective of what other candidates feel they have to do."

Lance has offered a plan to address rising fuel prices. Among other initiatives, he proposed increasing incentives for hybrid and hydrogen vehicles and tax breaks for renewable energy, as well as exploring alternative sources.

He said that looking towards November, voters will be able to make a clear contrast between himself and Stender, who faces no Democratic primary opposition. But Lance also pledged his support, as has Whitman, for whomever wins the Republican nomination.

Some analysts say the signs point to a Lance victory Tuesday.

"At this point, I think it's really Leonard's to lose," said Ingrid W. Reed, director of the Eagleton New Jersey Project at Rutgers University.

Reed believes Lance will benefit from the outspoken backing he has received from high-profile supporters who will likely help his get-out-the-vote efforts in a district that zig-zags across the north-central areas of the state within the metropolitan sphere of New York City.

Reed said of Whitman, "It looks like she hasn't gotten the kind of county endorsements that would make this picture look better for her."

Whitman does have a fundraising advantage, having reported higher receipts than the other GOP candidates in pre-primary reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Whitman reported $547,000 raised through May 14, which included $4,600 from the candidate herself. Lance reported $382,000 raised, including $101,000 from his own pockets.

The Republican nominee will face tough competition from Stender, who benefited from strong anti-Republican sentiment in 2006 and narrowly lost to Ferguson by 3,000 votes.

Stender's good fortune in avoiding competition for the Democratic nomination has allowed her to focus on preparing for the general election. Despite delaying her congressional fundraising efforts until after she secured re-election to the state Assembly last November, Stender raised nearly $1.2 million as of May 14 and still had more than $900,000 on reserve in her campaign treasury.

Reed said the fact that the Republicans in this race are already comparing themselves to the Democratic candidate underscores her perceived strength. "All of the Republicans are talking about how good they are as an opponent to Linda Stender," Reed said. "They're practically treating her like an incumbent."

But Republicans argue that Stender will lose ground this year because she is not running against an incumbent. They say her near-miss in 2006 was strongly influenced by her effort to tie Ferguson to Bush, who took 53 percent of the district's vote in his 2004 re-election race but saw his popularity drop off sharply there by the 2006 election. Stender -- running in a politically competitive district where many voters hold moderate to liberal views on social issues -- also highlighted Ferguson's opposition to abortion, even in cases of rape or incest.

Although the Republicans' long hold on the seat in this part of New Jersey suggests that they may have a bit of an edge among its voters, CQ Politics is adjusting its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080603/pl_cq_politics/politics2886681 [link]