Early results from Mont., S.D., primary polls

[Ron Burgundy]

AP - Preliminary results from exit polls and telephone surveys conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in presidential primaries Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota, the final contests in the Democrats' five-month battle for the presidential nomination, which Barack Obama clinched during the day.

DEMS ENERGIZED OR DIVIDED?

Did the long Democratic primary season leave the party energized or divided? South Dakotans said it had energized the party by about a 5-4 margin, with Obama's and Hillary Rodham Clinton's supporters expressing the same mostly positive outlook. Voters in Montana were about evenly split, though Clinton voters were a bit likelier than Obama backers to say no harm had been done.

RANCOR SUBSIDING?

The surveys indicated Clinton's backers were a little less hostile toward Obama than in most other recent primaries.

In six out of the last seven primaries, at least 60 percent of Clinton voters said they would be dissatisfied if Obama won the nomination — including 72 percent in Mississippi, 73 percent in West Virginia and 77 percent in Kentucky. But about half of Clinton's backers in Montana and South Dakota said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee. Tuesday's results were comparable to the exit poll results in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5.

In both states about a third of Clinton voters asserted they would vote for Republican John McCain or stay home in November rather than vote for Obama. In five of the last six states to vote before Tuesday, more than four in 10 Clinton voters had said they would abandon the ticket in November, including two-thirds of them in Kentucky.

... MAYBE NOT

On the other hand, about six in 10 Obama voters in both states don't want him to choose Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Seven in 10 Clinton supporters in both say they hope she's the selection.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

In South Dakota, Clinton led with many groups that have typically backed her, including women, older voters, working-class whites and Catholics. Obama was doing better than usual with whites who have not completed college, a significant weak spot for him all year — he was getting about four in 10 of their votes in South Dakota.

Obama was winning only a few voting blocs in the state that he has claimed as his own in previous contests, including young people, college graduates and those calling the Iraq war their top concern. Otherwise, he and Clinton were about evenly splitting voters who usually back him, including men, the affluent and well-educated, independents and the very liberal.

Montana's voters were a virtual mirror image of their neighbors in South Dakota, with Obama doing strongly across the board. He was prevailing in the state among whites, lower-income people, Catholics and running evenly among women and working-class whites — all groups that usually favor Clinton.

RACE STILL MATTERS

Nine in 10 South Dakota and Montana voters were white. As elsewhere, race played a role Tuesday.

About one in eight white South Dakota voters said race was important in choosing their candidate. Of that group, nearly two-thirds voted for Clinton — slightly more than those saying race was not significant. Those figures were fairly typical for white voters in other states.

About one in 10 whites in Montana said race mattered. Those voters leaned slightly toward Clinton.

Three in 10 South Dakota whites who said race was important said they would vote for McCain in November or not vote. That figure was closer to four in 10 in Montana. In five of the six states where those questions where asked — which all voted in April or May — at least 45 percent of those voters said they would abandon Obama in November.

ECONOMIC WORRIES

More than a third in both states said the economic slowdown has affected their families a great deal and close to half said it has affected them somewhat — comparable to exit poll results from earlier primaries. As usual, Obama did worst in South Dakota among those suffering the most economic woes.

Given a list of three issues, voters in both states were likeliest to say the economy was the most important issue facing the country, outpacing Iraq and health care. In South Dakota, Obama was prevailing only among those naming Iraq. He led in Montana with those naming the economy and Iraq, and was even with Clinton among those most concerned about health care — her signature issue.

GIMME A MINUTE

As has been the case in several recent primaries, late deciding voters leaned toward Clinton in South Dakota, where six in 10 of them picked her. People who made up their minds at least a month ago were about evenly split.

In Montana, late deciders were about evenly split between the two candidates. People who chose a month ago or more went heavily for Obama.

WHO RULES?

Slightly more South Dakota voters said Obama, rather than Clinton, would have the best chance of defeating McCain in November, while in Montana far more said Obama was the strongest Democratic contender. Eight in 10 Clinton supporters in both states still thought she did, while almost all Obama backers said no, it was him.

___

Partial results from exit poll samples conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in 20 precincts each across Montana and South Dakota. The early results were based on interviews with 1,162 voters in South Dakota and 1,247 in Montana, including about 250 early or absentee voters in each state who were interviewed by telephone from Tuesday through Sunday. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for both states.

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080604/ap_on_el_pr/exit_poll_glance [link]